FanDuel NBA Lucky 7’s – 7 Profitable Plays for Dec 16

Welcome to FanDuel NBA Lucky 7’s where I lay out my top 7 players who are simply intriguing buys for their respective match-ups. The “confidence” ratings reflect how risky each player is with “7” being very risky, and “7777” being a pick I’m very confident about.

FanDuel NBA – PG – Sergio Rodriguez @ Los Angeles – $5,000. 

  Pros: Sergio has been yielding good value for FanDuel NBA his price over his last 5 games, averaging 26.7 Fanduel points on $4,700 in average salary. That comes out to only 3.2 points over his value reflecting salary which isn’t overwhelming profit. However he had a 10.1 Fanduel point clunker against the Grizzlies over that span, and that’s not altogether surprising for as well as Memphis plays guards on defense and the caliber of player Sergio actually is.

Tonight Philadelphia plays the Lakers, who are actually on an 8 game losing streak! They also give up more assists per game than any team in the NBA. So with the Lakers in turmoil giving up as many dimes as they do and that being Sergio’s strongest category, for $5,000 he may be a good place to start when laying a foundation for your lineup.

Cons: The only imminent threat to Sergio’s fantasy value would have to be TJ McConnell. He cashed in a colossal game against the Raptors 2 games ago for 40.5 Fanduel points on $3,500. With that game being as great as it was, Brett Brown may find the need to see what else he can do against the Lakers especially if the Sixers get ahead big. Also, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, and Jahlil Okafor are getting turbulent minutes between the 3 of them, so depending on how that rotation plays out, the pace of this game could imitate quicksand.

Confidence: 7777

Fanduel NBA – PG – Reggie Jackson @ Washington $5,600

  Pros: Against Washington, I’ll have a hard look at any starting point guard. Even Reggie Jackson and his minutes restriction, because the buzz about it is sure to keep his ownership percentage low. He actually cleared the 30 minute mark at Dallas, and has been getting over 28 minutes a game in his last 3. So his strength seems to be getting there. His $5.6k salary is very modest for the types of numbers Reggie is capable of putting up if he can get the minutes, and Washington is a team that typically doesn’t give opposing guards a hard time at all.

Cons: The minutes restriction is obviously dubious and we don’t know how much he’ll concede scoring to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris. The matchup between Detroit and Washington wont be as profitable as projected, if the tempo of the game centers around their bigs of Andre Drummond and Marcin Gortat. Those two should each have a full workload going up against one another in the paint, but hopefully this game can pick up enough to where Reggie can still find opportunities to get to the rim.

Confidence: 77

Fanduel NBA – PG – Elfrid Payton v. Brooklyn $5,700

   Pros: Elfrid’s big game translated to a nice upset road victory against Atlanta earlier this week when he dropped 26 points, 14 assists, and 3 rebounds on $5,100 for 56.1 Fanduel points. That’s a profit margin of 30.6 FDP! In this matchup against the lowly Nets, Payton’s salary has gone up to only $5,700, which may drive some buyers away, but his increase in price isn’t worth fading him for at all. Hopefully Payton has proved himself effectively to Scott Vogel and get minutes in the 30s tonight against Brooklyn.

Cons: Elfrid has serious bust potential. His ownership is sure to be relatively high in this game against the mediocre Nets, but just 3 games ago against Denver he only put up 15.3 Fanduel points; a complete aberration of how point guards usually fare against the Nuggets. Has Elfrid abruptly figured something out or is he just on a hot streak in his last two games?

He’s a very volatile player who can have terrible games out of nowhere against easy matchups, but at the same time have monster games when least expected. I.e. against the Hawks two games ago, but also against OKC on the road this season with 50.9 FDP on $5,400 and at Washington with 49.7 FDP on $5,100. Those absurd spikes in production have me willing to take the risk on his $5,700 ticket if I like my other 7-8 slots.

Confidence: 777

Fanduel NBA – PG – Patrick Beverly v. New Orleans $5,600

Pros: There are so many great plays at PG tonight under the $6k mark in very profitable games that I think are all worth taking a hard look at. Brooklyn, Washington, the Lakers, and now New Orleans are all going to have a hard time matching up with these hot bargains. I have to look at Beverly here because New Orleans has not been putting up much of a fight against point guards, giving up 44.2 Fanduel points on $7,000 to Jeff Teague just lastnight. Beverly himself has been awesome over his last 5 games as he’s averaged 29.3 FDP a game while averaging only $4,960 in salary. Against New Orleans I’m feeling optimistic about him to keep up that production for his $5,600 salary.

Cons: Aside from his salary jumping $700 in 3 games, playing next to James Harden who averages a 33.4% usage rate has me feeling just a little uneasy about not what Beverly can do, but what he will do if he doesn’t have the chance to touch the ball. James Harden will assuredly take on most of the scoring load himself in this game because he tends to pick lesser teams apart in fantasy so long as he can get adequate minutes.

Houston is favored by 12 in this matchup, although I actually would be taking the points in this one because New Orleans has Jrue Holiday back in full who’s playing great lately, dropping 43.4 on $7,100 lastnight against the Pacers, and Anthony Davis is in line to have a huge impact in this one. If that’s the case I’m looking to Mike D’Antoni to use as much of Harden as possible to get it done over the Pelicans with Patrick Beverly being a pure auxiliary piece, which could still be reasonably profitable in Fantasy.

Confidence: 777

Fanduel NBA – PF – Julius Randle @ Philadelphia $6,200

Pros: Back to LA at Philly, this time in the front court. As I mentioned before, I was stunned when I saw that LA is on an 8 game losing streak, and has lost 11 of their last 13! Granted, they have had some injury woes to deal with, as D’Angelo Russell, Nick Young, and Julius Randle (Who is probably their most developed player) have all missed a significant amount of time between the 3 of them this season.

Julius Randle’s salary has been hovering around an unattractive $6.4k mark over his last 4 games as he’s played through a bruised hip. So tonight as Randle and the Lake show take on the league-worst 76ers on the road, his $200 salary dip couldn’t come at a better time. Randle should be busy against the likes of a GTD Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and a probable Nerlens Noel.

Cons: That hip is the main variable as to whether or not he’ll produce like he should be able to. I would have no problem giving him a full confidence rating if not for that. I’m going to need to see a game from him where he produces like he did before his injury before I make him a surefire lock in any lineup. There are also some very other intriguing plays at PF tonight, like Paul Millsap for $8,300 against Toronto, Anthony Davis for $11,800 against Houston. Also, Randle’s ownership percentage is sure to be high, so he probably wouldn’t be the worst player to bet against at PF.

Confidence: 77

Fanduel NBA – C – Rudy Gobert $7,300

Pros: Rudy Gobert cashes in 2 of 4 of Utah’s matchups with Dallas on the year, and anytime Utah plays a team as slow as Dallas there’s a good chance Gobert is poised to make a massive fantasy impact. Only tonight he’s going up against Dwight Powell and a GTD Salah Mejri, instead of Dallas’ stalwart Andrew Bogut.

Gobert’s stock has been on the rise lately as he’s averaged over 41 FDP a game in his last 5 games while averaging $7,200 in salary. His price has climbed $800 since then but hopefully all that does is keep his ownership percentage down, because he still could yield very solid value for that by the looks of his games within the past week. With the other bargains that are on the board, you should be able to afford Gobert and be left with plenty of profitable options at your other 8 slots.

Cons: When the Jazz played Miami at home this year, the O/U for that game was projected to be a  fantasy slog of 186.5 total points. What happened was that Gordon Hayward cashed in 50.1 Fanduel points on $7,600 (32 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds,) as the game ended up with 221 total points and Gobert was only able to chip in 25.5 Fanduel points.

The reason I mention this, is because if Vegas undershoots this game like they did that one in pace and point-total, this game could go over Gobert’s head and gravitate more toward the game of Gordon Hayward again, but also of Deron Williams, Seth Curry and Wesley Matthews in the backcourt. So if you’re looking to bet against Gobert keep those 4 in mind.

Confidence: 777

Fanduel NBA – C – Marcin Gortat $6,200

Pros: If you were looking to bet against Rudy Gobert tonight and save yourself $1,100, Marcin Gortat against Detroit is tantalizing at his $6,200 salary.

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The pace of this game should slow down as it gravitates more toward Drummond and his frontcourt presence, and Gortat should be very busy down low, hopefully accumulating plenty of numbers in putbacks and an extra block or two. Both Gobert and Gortat should have really good games, but I’d say it’s a total coin flip as to who will have a more profitable game on their salary.

Cons: Drummond has never been highlighted as a defense-first center the way Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, and Dwight Howard have. But this season, he is actually leading the league in Defensive win shares with 2.1 a game, mostly thanks to Stan Van Gundy. For some perspective, Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert have 1.9 a piece. So it’s unknown if this will really have an effect on Gortat’s ability to get to the rim as much.

Confidence: 777

Next: FanDuel NBA Picks for December 16

Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and analysis