NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 17
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 48 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Kemba Walker ($7,400) After missing the Hornets last game due to personal reasons, Walker is expected to return to the court in a juicy match-up against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing PG’s this season and with Walker’s depressed price point, we have the ability to extract significant value by rostering Kemba on Saturday.
These two teams played earlier this season and Kemba dropped 21 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists for 39 FanDuel points. At this price point, even that relatively “average” game would exceed 5.2x value for Walker which makes him a lock and load cash game play with significant GPP upside.
Reggie Jackson ($5,600) After letting me down on Friday night, I am willing to go back to the well here and roster the Pistons PG again! Jackson gets an exploitable match-up against a Pacers team that is 18th in DvP to opposing PG’s and presents a pace up spot for the Pistons offense.
Prior to Friday night, Jackson’s minutes continued to trend upwards of 30 minutes with 15+ shot attempts in three straight games. In single entry GPP play, Jackson was only 5-7% owned on Friday night and with his letdown performance he should see even less ownership tonight and makes for a great GPP dart play.
If you are looking for a pivot at the same price point, Patrick Beverley ($5,400) runs a Rockets offense that is projected to score the third most points on the slate and faces a Minnesota team that is 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s. Last season in this match-up, Beverley averaged 35 FanDuel points per contest which is a realistic target tonight and makes for a great way to get exposure to one of the highest scoring games of the night.
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Klay Thompson ($6,600) The Golden State-Portland game has a massive 230.5 combined team total so we want to ensure we have exposure here but with a 13.5 point spread we need to be mindful of the potential blow out risk.
Klay Thompson is a great way to get exposure to this game at a reasonable price point and he gets the added bonus of facing a team that is 23rd in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s so this is a great way to attack Portland. Last season Klay had two games of 43+ FanDuel points and we know his hot shooting can carry any roster in a GPP on any given night so I will look to roll him out in tournament play tonight!
C.J. McCollum ($7,400) On the other side of this match-up the question comes down to whether you want your exposure with Damian Lillard or McCollum. Similar to my decision to roster Klay Thompson, I am looking to build my roster with a more balanced approach where I can target the second tier options in this game and still have exposure to the high scoring upside.
If you are looking for a pivot at this price point, you can drop down to Nicolas Batum ($7,300) and mini-stack the Hornets back-court in an effort to attack the suspect Hornets guard defense. The Hawks are 24th in DvP to opposing SG’s and Batum is coming off back to back 40 point efforts.
In this same match-up earlier this season, Batum dropped 24 points and 10 rebounds for 43 points. The Hornets will likely be over looked tonight so I Iove the idea of a back-court stack with Kemba and Batum with both players positioned to exceed 40 FanDuel points at reasonable price points.
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Andrew Wiggins ($6,400) Minnesota gets an up-tempo match-up with Houston in which they are projected to score 108.8 points which is 5+ points higher than their season average. The best place to attack Houston this season has been at the SF spot where they are 23rd in DvP to opposing SF’s.
In a pace up game that is projected to be high-scoring, this sets up perfectly for the offensive minded Andrew Wiggins. With a 3.5 Vegas spread, this game should stay close throughout and Wiggins has the massive scoring upside as evidenced by his 42 FanDuel point outing in his last contest to help carry a balanced GPP roster construction!
Wilson Chandler ($6,000) The Nuggets-Knicks game currently sits at a 213 combined team total and is another great spot to target on a small DFS slate. Chandler entered the starting lineup in his last game as the Nuggets chose to go small and he responded with 35 minutes, 17 points and 8 rebounds for 33.1 FanDuel points.
Assuming the Nuggets opt to keep the same lineup, Chandler makes for a great mid-level salary option with a 30 point floor and 40+ point upside. If you are looking for a pivot, for $100 less you can lock in Danilo Gallinari for $5,900 in the same match-up against the Knicks who is coming off a 36 minute, 36.3 FanDuel point outing. Depending on roster construction, both Nuggets forwards are in play tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Draymond Green ($8,200) My favorite spot to get exposure to the Warriors tonight is at PF as the Blazers are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing PF’s on the season. Green sits at a discounted price point relative to the other Warriors stars and with the best positional match-up makes for a great way to get exposure here.
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in four games last season, Draymond averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists in four games against Portland and is my top target from this game in all formats.
Nikola Jokic ($5,900) Jokic disappointed owners in his last outing but remains in an ideal spot tonight as he will likely start at Center again for the Nuggets and faces a Knicks team that is 28th in DvP to opposing centers.
Over the last five games, Jokic is averaging over 40 FanDuel points a night and makes for a great value target in a balanced roster construction.
Myles Turner ($6,500) With no center option above $9k tonight, Turner is a great way to target 30-40 FanDuel points at a reasonable price point. Turner comes into tonight in great form with 32+ FanDuel points in each of his last four games.
Good luck in tonight’s NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates.