Astros George Springer Breakout: Trusting Him in 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Dec 18, 2016

Sep 6, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Houston Astros right fielder George Springer (4) celebrates his double in the third inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports /

George Springer had a breakout season in 2016 for the Astros. But, can fantasy owners trust him heading into 2017?

The Houston Astros did not meet expectations last season, but that was at no fault of George Springer. Springer played in every game for Houston in 2016, and posted career high stats nearly across the board. But, can fantasy owners trust his success and make him a high round target next season?

Springer entered the league with a lot of hype, as he was a first round pick, 11th overall, by Houston in 2011. Seemingly a five tool talent, the sky is the limit for Springer, and fantasy owners have recognized the potential. After a solid, but injury shortened 2015, he looked like a prime breakout candidate this season. He did just that by posting a .261/29 HR/82 RBI/9 SB/116 R/.815 OPS line.

Let us first get the bad out of the way. Springer swings and miss way too much. His 178 K and 24% K rate, are obviously hindering him. He swings at nearly 48% of the pitches he sees, and 27% of those were out of the zone. He did raise his contact to 74%, but the next hopeful step in his progression will be a more honed in approach at the plate because the strikeouts are capping his AVG.

There was also the issue of his SB nosediving. He stole 9 SB. but was caught stealing 10 times. A large part of that was his move to the leadoff spot in late-May. with Jose Altuve, and his ultra aggressive approach behind him, he did not have a lot of chances to take a base.

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Springer and A.J. Hinch both stated that they want him to run more, but banking on his SB to be there with Jose Altuve behind him is tough to do. But, he can be banked man for 15 SB at least.

Now, to the good. His 29 2B, and 29 HR, helped boost his SLG to a healthy .457 clip. Springer is a pretty big dude, 6’3 and 215 lbs., and that is reflected in his pure power numbers.

According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, he posted a 402 ft. average per HR. That ranks him among the tops in the league, and he quietly is one of the stronger hitters in MLB.

Another area that is encouraging, is that his HR spray chart is nearly balanced to both left and right field. He has power to all fields, and he is not solely relying on Minute Maid Park either. He has a .257/16 HR/50 RBI line away from Houston, and a .265/13 HR/32 RBI line at home. The power plays, and fantasy owners should trust it.

His batted ball data supports this as well. His 20% LD, 32% FB, 47% Med, and 34% Hard contact rates, are eerily similar to his 2015 sample size. Meaning, that last season he proved that he can carry those rates throughout a season, thus providing a solid base for his stats.

While the he will most presumably stay in the leadoff hole, where he can exploit the higher amount of fastballs he sees, there is the possibility he could move to the second spot throughout the season. The Astros have one of the deeper lineups in MLB, so his RBI numbers should stay respectable, even though he may be capped around 85 purely from the leadoff spot. Runs wise, barring health, he will post another 100+ season.

He needed a .317 BABIP for a .261 AVG last season, so to be safe, fantasy owners should expect anything from a .255-.275 AVG. It all depends on whether or not he can improve his K numbers.

Springer will be 27-years-old next season, so he is in his prime. In terms of fantasy owners expecting an even better season, those expectations should be tempered some. Springer played 162 games, and had 744 at bats, so owners have to figure in that he will play in fewer games next season. The power is legit though, and he should hit the 30 HR mark in 2017.

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He is still a mid-round selection next spring. He is a great OF2, that clearly has OF1 upside. There is some inherent risk, the injury concerns and the swing and miss tendencies, but he is an extreme talent. Target him within the first five rounds next spring.

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