NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 20
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 51 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Chris Paul ($9,600) With the news that Blake Griffin would undergo surgery and be out 6-8 weeks, my immediate reaction was to look at who CP3 was playing on Tuesday so I could roster him in DFS before he gets his price bump. To my supreme happiness, I see that Paul gets one of the best match-ups a PG could ask for as he takes on a Nuggets team that is giving up the third most points to opposing PG’s on the season.
The Clippers are usually a tough team to target with their Big 3 for DFS purposes but with Blake Griffin out, Paul will see an increase in both usage and points per minute. Without Griffin on the floor, Paul sees his usage increase to over 30% and he averages over 1.3 fantasy points per minute. The Clippers have the second highest team total on the slate and will see an uptick in both projected pace and points scored which makes CP3 one of the top plays of the night!
Kyrie Irving ($7,500) The original “Big 3” will be down one key member on Tuesday night as Kevin Love will miss this game and as we typically do in Cleveland, we should look to the other two members whenever one of big three is out!
When Love is off the floor, Kyrie sees a 5% point increase in usage, sporting a 37%+ usage rate over the last two season without his PF. Kyrie is also coming off one of his best games of the season where he dropped 21 points, 12 assists and 50 FanDuel points against the Lakers. This match-up against Milwaukee is expected to stay close with only a 3.5 Vegas spread so I expect Irving/LeBron to be on the floor for the majority of the game and with the increased usage and FPM output, Irving should be able to put up value that far exceeds his reasonable salary!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Jamal Crawford ($3,600) With the injury to Blake Griffin, I expect most will look to the obvious spots for increased fantasy production but Jamal Crawford may be an unexpected beneficiary that goes overlooked tonight.
Over the last two seasons, when Griffin is off the court, Crawford sees his usage increase to over 28% as the Clippers frequently went small last season during Griffin’s absence.
This year in the two games that Blake has missed, Crawford has averaged over 30 minutes a game putting up 25 and 15 FanDuel points in those two outings. At this price point, Crawford would only need 21.6 FanDuel points to hit 6x and going up against a Denver team that is 29th in DvP to opposing SG’s should allow Crawford the opportunity to exceed value if he continues to get those kind of minutes!
Garrett Temple ($4,300) One additional value play that has frankly been off my radar to this point that is worth pointing out is the Sacramento SG, Garret Temple.
Over the last four games, Temple has played over 30 minutes a night and is averaging 26 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6x value at this price point. Tonight the Kings get a match-up with a Portland team that is 23rd in the NBA against SG’s this season so the opportunity for continued fantasy production is there. With double-digit shots in each of his last three games and 30+ minutes a night, Temple is a great way to save salary on this slate without losing much opportunity.
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($8,400) Initially when building my roster I wanted to stack Kyrie Irving and LeBron James with Kevin Love out but it is hard to lock in King James when I can save $2k and grab a player like Kawhi Leonard.
Tonight is a great spot to aggresively target the Spurs as they see an uptick in pace and projected points scored against Houston in a game Vegas essentially has as a Pick Em.
The Rockets are 24th in DvP to opposing SF’s and Leonard has already dropped 47.9 FanDuel points against the Rockets this season. The price point is entirely too reasonable for Kawhi here and he fits into any roster construction tonight in any game format as a result!
Robert Covington ($5,200) For DFS players Covington is a guy you either love or hate, I find that around the industry there is no in between. I am a Covington believer and I think tonight is another great spot to deploy him!
Covington is playing 30+ minutes a night and is averaging 28 FanDuel points per night which is just over 5.3x value but in the right spots he has shown his ability to go for 40+. Tonight Covington takes on a New Orleans team that is 27th in the NBA in fantasy points allowed and has been exploited at nearly every position!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800) After two straight 50+ FanDuel point outings we saw KP’s price rise well above $8k on FanDuel but after two subpar outings the price is back below $8k and this is a spot we should look to roll out Porzingis tonight!
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The Pacers are 24th in DvP on the season to opposing PF’s and are playing on the second night of a back to back while Porzingis comes in rested having not played since Saturday. On large slates like this, I love looking for players in the $7k-$8k price range that I believe have 50+ point upside so players like Porzingis and Kawhi allow me the ability to build a well-rounded roster with GPP upside tonight!
Nikola Jokic ($5,900) After watching what he did to Dallas last night, how can you not roster this guy? Ok fine, its Mike Malone and he is basically DFS kryptonite, but my goodness how can we fade a guy priced under $6k that was one assist shy of a triple double while dropping 55 FanDuel points.
The match-up here against the Clippers may scare some away but without Griffin on the floor, the interior defense of the Clippers becomes a bit easier to attack. I am rolling Jokic out again tonight for under $6k as I do not believe there is another PF at this price point that has the upside he does. I also like this play as a correlation play off the Clippers exposure I will have tonight in the hopes this game stays competitive throughout and we can get a nice late night hammer!
DeAndre Jordan ($7,700) Heading back to the Clippers, I am going to look to employ a mini-stack with CP3 and Jordan tonight without Blake on the floor.
Earlier this season, without Griffin on the floor, Jordan put up a massive 21 point, 23 rebound performance against the Nets. Jordan sees only a minor usage/fantasy point production increase without Griffin on the floor so this is not a spot to go overboard tonight, but keep in mind last year Jordan eclipsed 45 FanDuel points in two of his three games against the Nuggets so the upside is there!
Good luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for roster updates and lineup news!