Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 52 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.3 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,500) Yes the price is still insanely high and yes the production is still coming in nightly at insane levels – what else can we really say?
Tonight has a distinct Stars/Scrubs feel as you look over the slate initially as we have six players priced over $10k on FanDuel tonight. From my perspective, if I am paying up for any player over $10k, you either find the room for Westbrook or simply go with a balanced roster approach.
Victor Oladipo will not play again on Wednesday which means Westbrook will be forced to carry the load again for the Thunder. In the last two games without Oladipo in the lineup, Westbrook is AVERAGING 70 FanDuel points per game. Seriously, read that sentence again. Insane.
Westbrook gets a match-up tonight against New Orleans who is ranked 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s which puts him in a favorable spot again and I expect he will be the highest scoring player on the slate. Fade at your own risk.
Risky Rubio ($5,600) Rubio is not a player I look to often, but any time we get point guards against the Hawks we need to look to exploit it as they are giving up the second most fantasy points to that position!
Rubio comes into the game in top form as well putting up 32, 32 and 30.6 FanDuel points over his last three games which puts him right at the 6x value mark with this price point. The Timberwolves will see a pace increase tonight and with the Hawks likely without Dwight Howard, I expect the Minnesota big men to feast inside which will allow Rubio to rack up his peripheral stats at this depressed price point!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($12,000) As I mentioned in the open, this looks to be a night where you should employ a Stars/Scrubs approach as the high-end players are in ideal spots to put up big numbers. The key as always with this strategy is to ensure you lock in the right stars and best value plays and I believe that Westbrook/Harden are both best positioned for monster fantasy nights.
The Rockets have the highest implied team total on the slate (with a few games still awaiting numbers due to injury concerns) and they get the biggest pace increase on the slate facing the Phoenix Suns.
In a game where the Rockets see a point increase, a pace bump AND Harden gets a favorable DvP match-up against the Suns back-court, this is a spot where I find we need to lock him in and try to find value to make it work!
Devin Booker ($5,900) From a value perspective, I am not sure there is another player at this price point who has a higher GPP ceiling and I love the idea of stacking Booker against Harden’s “defense” in this game.
The Suns have the second highest team total on the slate and we have seen Booker’s role in the offense steadily increase in recent games which bodes well for tonight’s match-up. Booker has put up at least 15 shots attempts in each of his last seven games and is locked into 30+ minutes a night for the Suns. On a night where they will need to keep pace with the Rockets in a a game Vegas expects to stay close, Booker is a great value play that gives you exposure to this game with a very high ceiling!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Kent Bazemore ($4,400) Bazemore has re-entered the starting lineup for the Hawks and comes into tonight’s game as one of the best value plays at the SF position. Bazemore over his last two games is averaging 35 minutes, and over 30 FanDuel points per night which is roughly 7x value at this price point!
Although the match-up against Minnesota is not elite from a DvP perspective, the price here is simply too low for a player locked into this many minutes and putting up a well-rounded fantasy stat sheet. On a stars/scrubs night, I am locking in Bazemore into the majority of my lineups on FanDuel where we need to roster two small forwards.
Maurice Harkless ($4,800) Mo Harkless was a late addition to my picks/pivots lineup on Tuesday night with the news that Evan Turner would be out due to injury and the Portland wing responded with 11 points, 10 rebounds and over 28 FanDuel points which is just over 5.9x value at this price point.
Portland is not a team I want to aggressively target on this slate as they see a massive pace decrease against Dallas but if Turner is ruled out again, Harkless will get significant run in this game and makes for a solid value play in a stars/scrubs roster construction!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Terrence Jones ($4,700) At some point the secret is going to be out on this guy but as long as Anthony Davis active, Jones gets overlooked each and every night but just simply keeps producing!
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Jones has hit 6x value in three of his last four contests coming off the bench for the Pelicans, including playing 30 minutes last night and racking up 17 points and 10 rebounds against the Sixers. In large field GPP play last night you were able to roster Jones for 1-2% ownership which considering he routinely is hitting value gives you a significant advantage over the field at this price point!
Ryan Anderson ($5,100) Do the Rockets have a high team total? Yes. Do the Rockets see a pace increase tonight? Yes. Do they face a team in Phoenix that is one of the most favorable spots DvP wise for opposing PF’s? Yes.
Anderson is the perfect GPP play under these circumstances as he can light it up on any given night in fast paced high scoring games as we saw just two nights ago when he dropped 41 FanDuel points against Minnesota. If you want to get exposure to the Rockets with some of their fringe players, Anderson is one of my favorite targets.
Robin Lopez ($4,900) The Bulls big man takes on a Wizards team tonight that he faced earlier this season and played 38 minutes while racking up 10 points, 13 rebounds and 29+ FanDuel points which would put him right at 6x value at this price point. On a night where we need to find value, Lopez is a relatively steady 5x contributor who has already flashed GPP upside in this match-up this season.
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the latest lineup news and roster updates!