FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – December 22
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 53 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Jeff Teague ($7,700) Looking over this slate, the point guard position is absolutely loaded and on FanDuel we are limited to rostering two, so this is a spot I think you have to nail tonight if you want to cash out.
The first obvious spot I think everyone will look is Golden State as they have a massive team total of 123 against the worst defense in the league in the Brooklyn Nets. With Stephen Curry‘s price now at $8,700, I expect many will flock to him but considering the Warriors just buried the Jazz by 30 and Portland by 40, this game will be over by halftime and outside of a GPP game-stack I am avoiding it entirely.
The spot I want to target tonight is Indiana and Boston as both teams are projected to score 105+ points and with a 1 point Vegas spread we can expect the starters to play a full complement of minutes!
Teague is my top target from this game as he comes into tonight with four straight 40+ FanDuel point outings including two straight games hitting 6x value (46+ FD points). The Celtics PG’s actually present one of the best match-ups to opposing PG’s as they have the worst Defensive Real Plus/Minus(DRPM) rating on the slate so Teague should be able to continue his recent top-tier performance.
Goran Dragic ($7,400) If you are fading the Warriors tonight, the Miami Heat may be the best team stack with an elite match-up against the Lakers. The Heat see a significant pace increase tonight and are projected to score 8 points more than their season average as they take on a Lakers defense giving up the second most fantasy points this season.
The Lakers are exploitable at every single position and unlike the Warriors game in Brooklyn, this one is expected to stay close so we can get similar upside in this game against one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Lakers are 25th in DvP to opposing PG’s and have the second worst DRPM so statistically this sets up well for Dragic and the price point is such that he needs 44 FD points to hit 6x value, a number he has tallied in two of his last 5 games!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Evan Fournier ($6,000) The Magic see a slight pace increase tonight and are expected to score nearly 6 points more than their season average with a showdown against the Knicks. All season long, we have looked to attack the Knicks at SG as tey are ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SG’s and Fournier is in an ideal spot to exploit that match-up tonight!
Fournier is locked into the most consistent minutes of any Magic starter and has hit 6x value in four of his last six games. With this match-up tonight, Fournier is the first SG I am putting into my roster tonight as the price point allows me to spend up elsewhere while still capturing GPP upside!
Josh Richardson ($4,200) The Magic value plays on this slate are plentiful and with their match-up against the Lakers, I will be using them heavily across my lineups to help me afford the high-priced studs.
The Heat have already ruled out Dion Waiters and Wayne Ellington tonight so Josh Richardson should continue to get major run tonight! Richardson has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last four games including a whopping 44 minutes in his last game. With the guaranteed minutes tonight, Richardson is an elite value play against a Lakers team that is 27th in DvP to opposing SG’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($7,900) The Knicks have the second highest team total on this slate and with their Big 3 dominating the usage each night, they make for an easy target in DFS as we can hone in easily on which players to target for our FanDuel NBA rosters.
Anthony gets a middle of the road match-up against the Magic but with his elite 28%+ usage rate, which is second to only Kevin Durant at the SF position, he should continue to be the focal point of the Knicks offense.
Melo comes into the game tonight with two 49+ FanDuel point outings in his last five and is a great way to get 50+ point exposure without having to pay a massive salary!
Justise Winslow ($4,700) Back to the Miami value plays! Winslow returned to the Heat four games ago and has already seen a significant boost in minutes due to the injuries the Heat are facing. In his last two games, Winslow has played 32 and 46 minutes and has at least 20 FanDuel points in each of his last three games.
The Lakers are dead last in DvP to opposing SF’s on the year so I have no issue building a stack of Heat value plays tonight with such favorable statistical match-ups awaiting them!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Hassan Whiteside ($9,300) With all the value we have across the Heat roster, it allows us to pay up for the player I believe will end the night as the highest raw point performer! Whiteside gets an incredible match-up against an under-sized Laker front court and I expect a massive stat line from him tonight.
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The Lakers are 28th in DvP to opposing centers and Whiteside is coming off a massive 61 FanDuel point outing which is a number I believe he can approach again tonight!
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800) Typically when we roster a Knicks star we will look to pick one of either Carmelo or KP as the usage usually alternates between which stud puts up the big night. Tonight however with a weak PF crop, I like the idea of pairing Porzingis with Anthony and targeting two players with 50+ FanDuel point upside for under $8k in salary!
KP statistically has the tougher match-up tonight going against Serge Ibaka so if you are forced to choose one, I would side with Anthony, but with that reasoning in mind I believe that Porzingis may go under-owned on this slate.
Thaddeus Young ($5,000) Thad has been quietly producing for the Pacers over the last few games and FanDuel has given him a slight price increase as a result. However at $5k, considering that Young is playing 30+ minutes a night and is averaging 16.5 points and 9 rebounds in his last two games, this is a great spot to continue to target him as a value play.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR all day on Twitter for late breaking roster news and lineup updates!