Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 54 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Friday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with 14 games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Isaiah Thomas ($8,200) Welcome to the last edition of Picks of Pivots before Christmas Day as the NBA will take off on Christmas Eve but leaves us a massive 14 game slate on Friday night! On a night with Russell Westbrook in action we can certainly start our top plays there, but I will opt to go on the other side of this match-up and lock in a red-hot IT4!
Thomas comes into this game playing at a high level for the Celtics, averaging 42.7 FanDuel points per game since returning from injury and gets a favorable spot in an up-tempo game against Westbrook. If you look at opposing points against Westbrook recently as an example, you will see players like Dennis Schroder and Jrue Holiday putting up 45 and 42 FanDuel points respectively so although Westbrook is an incredible offensive talent we can certainly attack him on the defensive end!
The Celtics will see a pace increase and are one of the highest projected scoring team on the slate so I expect IT4 to go toe to toe with Westbrook tonight and at this price point I feel a 40 point floor is relatively safe with immense GPP upside!
Dennis Schroder ($7,100) The Hawks head to Denver for one of the best FanDuel NBA games on the slate as we can expect tons of fantasy points to be scored in this one! The Hawks see a pace increase and a 7 point increase in their projected point total as compared to their season average.
Schroder could not ask for a better individual match-up as the Nuggets are the worst team DvP wise against starting PG’s and have the worst Defensive Plus/Minus rating in the NBA at this position!
The Hawks PG has really stepped up his play recently as well, putting up 45 and 31.7 FanDuel points in his last two games while putting up 37 shots in the last two games combined. With Dwight Howard already ruled out, I expect Schroder will be even more aggressive than usual on the offensive end. In his last game with Howard out, Schroder got to the line 10 times which was a key reason for his increased point total and with Howard out again tonight I would expect more aggressive play from him in the perfect match-up!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Devin Booker ($6,100) The Suns-Sixers game is a spot we can expect fantasy production to come in bunches and Booker may be my favorite player to target from this game. Coming into this season, many expected a major breakout from Booker but he has scuffled a bit to find his footing so far this season. In recent games however we are starting to see signs that the breakout is close as Booker is becoming more aggressive on the offensive end, taking 22 and 25 shots in two of his last three games.
In his last game against Houston, Booker scored 28 points while racking up 6 rebounds and 7 assists for 44.7 FanDuel points which would exceed 7x value at this price point. The Sixers are ranked 20th in DvP on the season against opposing SG’s so this is a spot where you can continue a balanced roster construction while targeting players with 40+ point upside!
Iman Shumpert ($3,600) The Cavaliers get the league’s best match-up as they take on the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night. The Nets played an incredibly tough game on Thursday night against the Warriors and expended a ton of injury in that game so I expect the Nets to be tired and turn the ball over frequently as they did in the tail end of the Warriors game.
With J.R. Smith out due to injury, Shumpert will continue to get major run off the bench for the Cavaliers having played at least 29 minutes in each of his last three games. This game will be one to watch as Kevin Love remains questionable and this would seem to be a prime spot to get Kyrie Irving or LeBron James some rest prior to their Christmas Day showdown with the Warriors. Shumpert is a great source of a value and should be able to rack up solid peripheral stats against a Nets team that is 29th in DvP to SG’s this season.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($8,000) With the early news that Pau Gasol has been ruled out for tonight’s game with Portland, we get an ideal opportunity to lock in Kawhi Leonard tonight. Portland is ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SF’s and with Gasol out of the lineup we can expect a major production boost from Kawhi.
According to the Court IQ tool at RotoGrinders, Kawhi sees a usage increase of 3% with Gasol off the court which translates to a 35.7% usage rate while putting up 1.37 fantasy points per minute. With this game projected to stay close, if Kawhi sees his usual 35+ minutes we could be looking at a 50 FanDuel point outing tonight for The Claw!
Kent Bazemore ($4,500) Bazemore was featured earlier this week as a top Picks and Pivots play and he continues to be a great source of value on FanDuel when trying to roster a second SF! As I mentioned, the Hawks are one of the best teams to target tonight in an up-tempo spot against the Nuggets and without Dwight Howard in the lineup, it will boost the value of the entire Hawks lineup!
Bazemore has played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games and is averaging 27+ FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6x value at this price point. In his last game without Howard in the lineup, Bazemore was able to put up 31 FanDuel points in a well-rounded game and I would expect him to be able to produce in a similar spot tonight as a top end value play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Paul Millsap ($8,300) Millsap is coming off back to back double-doubles with a near triple double in his last game against Minnesota while putting up 44+ FanDuel points in each of his last two games. With Dwight Howard out tonight, Millsap will continue to see massive run in Atlanta’s front-court and may even be asked to play some center.
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What I love about Millsap tonight is the security he brings as he can play PF if the Nuggets opt to play big or he can slide to the 5 if the Nuggets choose to play small ball. Without Howard in the lineup, Millsap sees a nice increase in usage and fantasy points per minute and with the high team total the Hawks are expected to get tonight, he is a great spot for another 40-50 FanDuel point outing at a reasonable price point!
LaMarcus Aldridge: ($6,500) As mentioned earlier, with Pau Gasol out tonight, we can expect significant usage and fantasy point increases tonight the other two Spurs stars. Portland is dead last in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s and I am all-in on stacking Kawhi and LMA tonight at their price points! Without Gasol on the floor, Aldridge sees his usage increase to 30+% and he averages 1.13 fantasy points per minute.
Rudy Gobert ($7,700) Gobert continues to be a double-double machine as he now has racked up nine consecutive and looks to make it 10 straight tonight against Toronto!
In six of his last nine games, Gobert has put up 40+ FanDuel points which would exceed 5x value at this price point so we can target a player with a very safe floor and GPP upside at this price point. I like this match-up against Toronto as earlier this week they surrendered 25 points/15 rebounds to Dwight Howard and I think Gobert could put up a similar stat line tonight for the Jazz.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the latest lineup news and roster updates. Enjoy your holiday – Picks and Pivots we be back for all the Christmas Day NBA Action!