College Basketball Bracketology 2017: Week 14
My top line remains locked for the third week in a row, but not after careful consideration over whether or not to promote North Carolina as the fourth No. 1 seed. Baylor dropped back-to-back games, but to the Bears’ credit, the single-digit losses against Kansas on the road and Kansas State — two tournament teams — were credible.
If North Carolina hadn’t lost to Miami (FL) on Jan. 28, the Tar Heels would likely already be on the top line. While they dominate the interior, wearing teams down over 40 minutes, only four of their nine ACC wins have been comfortable. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame both scored efficiently in close games recently against North Carolina.
The ACC currently has nine teams in my bracket with two more on the immediate periphery (sorry Pittsburgh and N.C. State fans, but I’ve all but eliminated your team from contention). The Big Ten has seven teams in, and a few others, including Michigan State, within spitting distance. I’ve got seven teams firmly in from the Big 12, and the best five teams in the Pac-12 are square.
As we move to the first teams in and out of the bracket, I want to focus on the SEC, which is the most venerable of the major conferences.
Last Four In:
Seton Hall, Michigan, Illinois State, Rhode Island
First Four Out:
Arkansas, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Arkansas getting snubbed from my field of 68 has more to do, fair or unfair, with the greater struggles of the SEC. Three teams (Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina) have won 36 percent of the conference’s games, and Missouri and LSU, meanwhile, have combined to go 2-19 at the bottom of the standings. This leaves a morass of nine teams sitting between 4-7 and 7-4 in the SEC, as of Wednesday, with none of these teams piling up enough quality wins to make my bracket.
The Razorbacks (17-7, 6-5) knocked themselves out of the field by losing to Missouri and Vanderbilt in the past five days. Road games against Florida and South Carolina leave Arkansas with five winnable games and two probable losses on the schedule. Arkansas will make the tournament if they go 5-2. Go 4-3 or worse and the picture gets much cloudier.
Alabama is currently fourth in the SEC with seven wins after defeating South Carolina in four overtimes on Tuesday. But the result was a product of South Carolina’s ghastly offensive performance (29 eFG%), as the Crimson Tide were hardly any more impressive. Alabama scored only 88.2 points per 100 possessions, per Sports Reference. Kentucky looms this weekend, and Alabama lost every meaningful game from its lackluster non-conference schedule (vs. Dayton, at Oregon, vs. Clemson).
Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia will flirt with the committee between now and Selection Sunday, and Auburn (16-8, 5-6) sneakily is in contention for a 20-win regular season, but don’t be surprised if the SEC is held to four teams or less in March.
It should also be noted that — in response to Michigan State’s win the first time around — Michigan smacked its rival, 86-57, on Sunday in Ann Arbor. I’m not sure the Spartans will recover from this blasting, and it feels like a galvanizing win for the Wolverines after uneven play over the first few months.
Onto the bracket…
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Weber State
(2) Florida State vs. (15) Arkansas State
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Princeton
(4) Butler vs. (13) New Mexico State
(5) South Carolina vs. (12) Illinois State/Rhode Island
(6) Duke vs. (11) UNC Wilmington
(7) Iowa State vs. (10) Minnesota
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Dayton
One of the biggest jumpers on my bracket was Iowa State, who beat Kansas in OT for a necessary signature win. Iowa State nailed 18 of 34 3-pointers against Kansas, which would be difficult to replicate. But Monte Morris and company protected the basketball with just nine turnovers, and 12 steals helped push Kansas to 20 turnovers, negating the home team’s staggering rebounding advantage (42 to 24).
The Cyclones (14-9, 6-5) were previously bound to the bubble despite competitive play in the non-conference. Iowa State lost by two on a neutral court to Gonzaga, and by one in overtime to Cincinnati. The Cyclones nearly opened the Big 12 schedule with four straight wins after losing on the road to Baylor by two. My oh my, how different those two respective resumes would be if that game had wrapped differently.
Oregon crushed Arizona, 85-58, at home on Saturday, which was nearly enough to supplant the Wildcats on the second line. But I’d still take Arizona’s losses (Butler, Gonzaga, Oregon) over Oregon’s losses (Baylor, Georgetown, Colorado), and that’s before you told me the Wildcats were tight against both of the Bulldogs, and that the Ducks were slaughtered by the Bears.
Dayton (18-5, 9-2) and VCU (18-5, 8-2) are battling for the automatic bid out of the Atlantic-10, though multiple teams have consistently represented the conference over the years. The A-10 is down overall, however, and quality wins have been hard to come by. Key losses in the non-conference for the Flyers (Saint Mary’s, Northwestern) and the Rams (Baylor, Georgia Tech) could cost them on Selection Sunday if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Also scratching and clawing from the A-10 is Rhode Island, who just missed the cut despite winning four straight games. Ironically, Rhode Island has a win over Cincinnati that is better than anything Dayton or VCU has done, but losses against La Salle and Richmond have set the Rams back.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Sam Houston State/UC Davis
(2) Louisville vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Nevada
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Akron
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Middle Tennessee State/
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Syracuse
(7) SMU vs. (10) California
(8) TCU vs. (9) Marquette
Louisville-Kentucky-Wisconsin is an intimidating group sitting underneath the undefeated Bulldogs. The Badgers have won seven straight games, vaulting up to 11th in adjusted efficiency margin at PenPom. Both the Cardinals (Virginia) and the Wildcats (Florida) have lost recently but against great competition.
Creighton (20-4, 7-4) has not faltered enough without point guard Maurice Watson Jr. to warrant less than a No. 5 seed, but those days could certainly be coming to an end. The Bluejays are still a great offense, proving that on Saturday by scoring 115.9 points per 100 possessions against Xavier. The only trouble is that the Musketeers put up 48 in the second half to snatch the victory, 82-80. Creighton similarly gave up 102 points to Marquette in the immediate aftermath of Watson’s injury.
Maryland vs. Syracuse is one of my favorite first round matchups on this bracket, as a five-game winning streak has the Orange currently in the tournament. Syracuse (16-9, 8-4) has done it a few different ways — scoring 100 on the road against N.C. State; clamping down defensively against Florida State and Virginia; and Tyus Battle’s buzzer-beater on Tuesday against Clemson — but the team’s performance in the ACC shows that Jim Boeheim once again has a short rotation few teams want to play when the games matter most.
The Terrapins, formerly of the ACC (while Syracuse was in the old Big East), have won 20 games and beaten several tournament teams — Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Minnesota — but have not been terribly impressive. Losing to Purdue on Saturday limits Maryland’s chances of moving up the bracket, and getting upset by Penn State on Tuesday was a confidence blow.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16)Texas Southern
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Furman
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) Cincinnati vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) Florida vs. (12) Vermont
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Indiana
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State
(8) VCU vs. (9) Northwestern
On the third and fourth lines, respectively, West Virginia and Cincinnati have two of my favorite resumes. The Mountaineers have six great wins, including on the road against Virginia, Baylor and Kansas. A few duds against Temple, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are forgivable. I can’t wait to see Jevon Carter avenge his four-point, four-turnover performance in the first round against Stephen F. Austin last season.
The Bearcats (21-2, 10-0) are taking care of business in conference, and losses to Rhode Island on a neutral site and on the road against Butler aren’t bothersome. Beating Iowa State is looking better and better. Wins over SMU and Xavier against solid tournament teams further legitimize what Kyle Washington, Jacob Evans and the Bearcats have done.
Florida has had an awesome couple weeks. The Gators beat LSU on the road by 35, Oklahoma on the road by 32, and have won five in a row after taking down Kentucky and Georgia. Florida trounced Kentucky by 22, shooting the Gators up to sixth overall on KenPom.
Northwestern is a darling that many want to see make the field, but back-to-back losses against Purdue and Illinois should give fans pause. Coming up is Wisconsin and Maryland, and a four-game losing streak could compromise what Northwestern (18-6, 7-4) has already done.
Also from the Big Ten is Indiana (15-9, 5-6), clinging to non-conference wins against Kansas and North Carolina. Indiana avoided a four-game losing streak by way of beating Penn State in triple-overtime. The Purdue game on Thursday would go a long way for the Hoosiers.
South Region
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Winthrop
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Bucknell
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Belmont
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Seton Hall/Michigan
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Miami (FL)
(8) USC vs. (9) Kansas State
UCLA has been the most efficient offense all season according to KenPom, making a potential Sweet 16 showdown against Baylor all the more interesting. North Carolina against Virginia in the Sweet 16, to boot, makes the South Region the most top heavy. Saint Mary’s is an unproven No. 6 seed; the rest of the at-large picks in this region are interchangeable.
Purdue is now ranked 12th on KenPom, as Caleb Swanigan leads one of the nations most efficient offenses. Wins over Northwestern and Maryland have the Boilermakers entrenched as a top-five seed.
Five straight wins and a road victory against West Virginia have Oklahoma State off the bubble and into the field. USC, Kansas State and Miami (FL) were easy picks to round out the bottom of the at-large pile. The Hurricanes win over the Tar Heels on Jan. 28 is a golden ticket so long as they stay relevant in the ACC. The Trojans are up to 20-4 and the Wildcats beat Baylor on Saturday.