Twins: Miguel Sano and His Tantalizing Fantasy Value Heading into 2017

Miguel Sano is one of the more intriguing, yet frustrating players in all of MLB. He is a tantalizing talent for the Twins, and fantasy owners are left wondering what his fantasy value is in 2017.

There are few players in MLB that can match the raw power that Miguel Sano brings to the table. The behemoth Twins’ slugger is a great talent but is still extremely raw and glaring has flaws in his game. The upside is sky-high, but what is his fantasy value heading into 2017?

Most fantasy owners by now know who Sano is. They know the damage he can do and recognize that he is only one of the players left in the league that is an annual 40 HR threat. The hype surrounded him nearly as soon as he was signed by the Twins in 2009 and he has shown glimpses of that promise over the first 196 games he played in the majors.

After posting a .269/18 HR/52 RBI/.916 OPS line over 80 games in 2015, fantasy owners were all over Sano going into 2016. His arrow was pointing up and fantasy owners could not pass up the potential. He rewarded those owners with an unspectacular .236/25 HR/66 RBI/.781 OPS line over 116 games.

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The 25 HR are respectable. but the K rate somehow went up and he missed all of June with a hamstring injury. The biggest and most obvious flaw in his game is the strikeouts. Sano posted an obscene 36% K rate last season, compared to a paltry 11% BB rate.

Sano still struggles with his plate approach, especially with changeups, and it shows often. It is hard to imagine that Sano could get worse in terms of the K department, but it is hard to it imagine a huge improvement overnight.

While the K rate is absurd, the dude absolutely smokes the ball when he makes contact. He was amongst the league’s best by averaging a 93.6 mph exit velocity and a 405 ft. average per homer. There is no ballpark that can contain him when he squares the ball up. His batted ball data supports these numbers as well as he posted a 20% LD, 46% FB, 46% Med and 40% Hard contact rates.

Even though he got out of the gates slow and his AVG was ugly each month, he did notch at least 4 HR/12 RBI per month after April. It is easy to see why Sano is nearly a shoe-in for 25 HR each season, it will just be a matter if he can reach the next level.

In terms of counting stats, Sano should bat cleanup for the team which would slot some combo of Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Joe Mauer in front of him. Most would agree that Dozier will not repeat his crazy power surge like in 2016, opening the door for more RBI chances for Sano. He had 66 RBI in under 120 games last season, so it is easy to see how 90 RBI could be in play if he can stay on the field and produce.

Sano will come into the season having a cemented role at the hot corner for the Twins. Last season, Trevor Plouffe was in the picture and the Twins tried to miscast Sano as a corner outfielder. This may have led to the leg woes last season, so the offseason weight loss and now moving back onto the dirt should do him wonders.

The swings and misses are not going anywhere. But, he did up his contact rate by 6% last season and cut his swinging strike rate by nearly 2%. If he can continually make gradual improvements in his contact rate, owners should see his AVG jump closer to the .269 mark that we saw in 2015. He does not have to bat .300, but owners need the power numbers but without the huge weekly hit in the AVG department.

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Sano is a tantalizing talent. Most fantasy owners may be scared off by his underwhelming 2016 performance, but that provides other owners the chance to buy relatively low on huge upside. This is not to say that in 2017 Sano will bat .270 and mash 40 HR, but he is a good bet to post at least a .250/30 HR/80 RBI line. There will be weeks where the AVG is terrible, but other weeks that he can carry fantasy squads. Do not be afraid to target Sano in 2017.