Nationals: Matt Wieters Finally Finds a New Home in 2017
By Brad Kelly
Matt Wieters finally has a new home as the veteran catcher inked a deal with the Nationals. What is the fantasy fallout of the deal?
The 2017 free agent class had its fair share of high-end names, but there were also many that stayed on the market longer than most would have thought. One of the biggest examples of this was Matt Wieters, who many thought would have plenty of suitors. Even though the Nationals already have decent in-house catcher candidates, they still made the decision to bring Wieters in.
Wieters is no stranger to fantasy owners and his three straight 20+ HR/67+ RBI seasons between 2011-2013 made him one of the best fantasy options available. Unfortunately, TJ surgery would cost him most of 2014 and nearly all of the 2015 season.
This made 2016 his first season fully removed from the surgery and he finished with a .243/17 HR/66 RBI/.711 OPS line. This ranked him among the best fantasy producers at the position last season. The power looked to be back and it seemed as though the TJ surgery was behind him for good.
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Wieters will be 31-years-old next season, so fantasy owners should not expect some sort of breakout. But, due to the C position being so weak, Wieters’ 20+ HR ability is certainly attractive to those who wait to address the position. After eight years of batted ball data, owners can get a good sense if Wieters is back or not.
In 2016, Wieters posted a 24% LD, 40% FB, 47% Med and 33% Hard contact rates.
His career batted ball profile is 20% LD, 39% FB, 53% Med and 31% Hard contact rates.
While he could only play in only 101 games across 2014-2015, it is encouraging to see that last season he was able to square the ball up at nearly the same rate as his career norms.
According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, he averaged 389 ft. per homer in 2016, which was two more feet than in his career-best 23 HR season in 2012. The move from Camden Yards may scare some, yet only one of his 17 HR last season would not have left Nationals Park.
Entering 2017 another year removed from the surgery and right back in a stacked lineup, Wieters looks to be in a position to provide solid fantasy value. He may hit near the bottom of the order for the Nationals, but he should have plenty of counting stat opportunities with the likes of Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper in front of him.
The Nationals did not need to make this move, with Derek Norris, Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino in the fold. But, Wieters is a far better option at this point. The only scare for fantasy owners would be if the Nationals kept Norris and platooned him with Wieters based on the splits. The Nationals did not shell out $10.5 million this late into free agency to sit Wieters though.
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Wieters is a by no means a world beater and the Nationals did not necessarily need him this season. However, fantasy owners will welcome his move. Even if the worse case scenario happens and he is platooned, he will be on the right side of it and will still provide fantasy value. As the starter, owners should expect a .245/20 HR/70 RBI line, making him a top-12 fantasy C in 2017.