Athletics: Believing in Marcus Semien in 2017?

Marcus Semien had a huge power breakout last season with the Athletics. But, can fantasy owners believe in the surge heading into 2017?

The Oakland Athletics look to once again be in a transition year as they continue to develop their young and talented roster. While they have plenty of intriguing players heading into 2017, one of their most interesting players, is Marcus Semien. Semien nearly doubled his HR in 2016 than the year before, but can fantasy owners believe in the power?

Marcus Semien’s time with the Athletics has been entertaining, to say the least. In 2015, he led the world in errors and the offensive totals were not there to offset the defensive woes. Many began to question his long-term value after such a rough campaign, but he able to rebound nicely last year. He finished the 2016 season with a .238/27 HR/75 RBI/10 SB/.735 OPS line over 159 games.

The first thing that jumps out is the power surge. Semien upped his power numbers on the back of a near 5% increase in his FB rate, which climbed up to 43% in 2016. In terms of his Med and Hard contact rates, both were nearly identical to what he produced in 2015.  Making it clear that the increased loft in his swing certainly was the crux of power success.

More from Fantasy Baseball

• 5 fantasy baseball waiver wire pivots to replace Triston McKenzie
• Fantasy baseball mock draft 2023, 12-team: Aaron Judge over Trea Turner?
• 3 fantasy baseball sleepers being drafted too late
• NBA DFS picks December 25: Merry Bucking Christmas
• Fantasy Baseball: Hot pitchers worthy of starting this weekend

Even with the influx of fantasy talent at the SS position, a near 30 HR performance deserves attention. But, is the power solely worth chasing in terms of his value?

Last season Semien also saw his AVG dip by 19 points to a .238 clip. He did up his walk rate to 8%, but his K rate did climb by 3%. Semien is an athletic player and owners will clearly point to his .268 BABIP as a sign of his just running into some back luck. But, with a 43% FB and Pull rate and a dropping contact rate, it is also easy to see what a huge BABIP may not be in store.

Semien has never hit above .273 in any of his professional seasons, therefore owners should expect him to all of sudden be an AVG asset. The .238 clip he posted may be on the lower end of things as his BABIP will surely climb back to league average, but owners should expect somewhere around a .255 mark in 2017.

The one wildcard in terms of his fantasy value is whether or not he will ever become the 20 SB threat that some anticipated. He has a 24 SB minor league season under his belt, but he has not implemented that as part of his game in the majors. He has only attempted 28 steals the last two seasons combined, so while owners can hope for 20 SB, the odds are that he fails to reach that plateau once again next season.

In terms of his counting stats, the Athletics do not have an offensive juggernaut by any means but they do have some potential quality producers. Semien will likely slide into the 5th or 6th spot of the order with the likes of Rajai Davis, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy and Stephen Vogt in front of him. He should be able to repeat another 70+ RBI season.

There will be some fantasy owners that chase his 27 HR hoping that 30 HR are what comes next. That optimism should be tempered based on his home ballpark, K rate and no discernible difference in the authority in which he hit the ball compared to his 15 HR 2015 season. Owners should expect more of a .255/25 HR/75 RBI type of line, which has value, just not the type of upside that some owners hope for.

Next: Mets: Addison Reed's Intriguing Fantasy Value in 2017

Target Marcus Semien has a late round MI selection for those teams that need a cheap power source.