Rockies: Trusting Jon Gray in Fantasy Baseball Heading into 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Feb 27, 2017

Sep 4, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (55) delivers a pitch in the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

Jon Gray showed flashes of dominance with the Rockies last season. But, can fantasy owners trust him heading into 2017?

Trusting a Rockies’ pitcher in fantasy baseball is almost sacrilegious, as the room for error is so high thanks to Coors Field. But, what if there is a pitcher that has the raw stuff to overcome the Coors’ effect. Enter in, Jon Gray.

Gray looks every part of the young stud arm that the Rockies’ have craved for years. Colorado took him third overall for a reason in the 2013 draft, and it seems as though the talent may finally be ready to match the hype. He debuted with the Rockies in 2015, but last season was his first full MLB season. He ended with a 4.61/1.26 WHIP/185 K/3.60 FIP over 168 innings.

On the surface, the 4.61 ERA will scare off fantasy owners as it will be perceived as just a typical Rockies’ starter line. But, underneath those mediocre standard numbers, there lies a ton of upside and fantasy intrigue.

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From a physical standing, Gray’s long locks are not the only thing that makes him stand out as he stands in at a healthy 6’4 and 235 pounds. He is a big dude and already has a presence on the mound. While his sheer physicality stands out, his repertoire follows suit.

Gray implemented a four-pitch mix last season. His fastball sits in the upper-90s, averaging 95 mph. His changeup is still a work in progress, but the 10 mph dip from his fastball is solid. The added wrinkle of his curveball last season, especially from July on, served him well versus lefties. But, the bread and butter of his arsenal is his wipeout slider, which ranked as one of the most unhittable pitchers in all of MLB.

His slider forced a 24% whiff rate and batters only posted a .193 AVG versus the pitch. It is his strikeout pitch and he is not afraid to use it. At worst, Gray is an electric two-pitch pitcher, but the next step will be if he can develop a consistent offspeed pitch. That just very well may be his curveball, which he used 14% of the time over the last three months of the season, and saw batters only hit .143 against it.

Diving deeper into his peripherals, things get more encouraging. His 26% K and 8% BB rate are solid numbers. He posted a 9.9 SO/9, just falling short of the double-digit mark, but he should have no issue with getting over that in 2017. He did post a 25% LD rate, but his 44% GB and 32% FB rate are both great indicators for a guy that pitches in Coors.

What fantasy owners are investing in is a 26-year-old electric arm that showed flashes of greatness last season, yet recognizes that he has to keep making adjustments. He has the fastball and slider combo to has moderate success. But the uptick in usage of his curveball and the continual tinkering of his changeup, are a scary indication of what could happen once it all gets put together

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The Rockies’ pitcher avoidance strategy certainly holds weight based on what the past has told us. But, Gray has the type of special arm that can allow him to succeed in any setting. Will he be prone to a few blow-ups, of course, but the upside is tremendous. Look for him to post a 3.90 ERA/200 K type of season in 2017.

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