DraftKings EPL Daily Fantasy Picks – March 4 2017
By David Gate
We are here this week ahead of Saturday’s six Premier League games to give you tips, picks and analysis for DraftKings EPL DFS.
Last week’s lineups had hugely varying results. One lineup cashed in the top 5% and the other hovered around the 50% line. If you played both in GPP games, you would have made good money!
The huge game of the weekend is the late match between Liverpool and Arsenal. Two teams who are desperate to maintain their challenges for Champions League spots. The players from this game will be highly owned, so it is important to find variation in other places. We have some great ideas how to give you that edge on Saturday.
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The key to all DFS sports is value. As in getting the most points out of every dollar spent. Gaining 3 points for every $1K of budget will be a very high scoring lineup on DraftKings.
I rank my picks out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good match up
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong match up
DraftKings EPL Goalkeepers
The first thing to consider for DraftKings goalkeepers is clean sheet and win bonus. Five points are given for each while only two points are given saves. I treat saves as nice cherries on top of the cake of clean sheets and wins!
There are four keepers that stand out to me in this category on Saturday. Stoke’s Lee Grant (5400)** is at home to Middlesbrough. This Boro side tend to play very defensively away from home taking few shots and scoring few goals. They also have no attacking players in any real form. While I’m confident of the clean sheet bonus, this game could easily end up 0-0.
Similarly, Kasper Schmeichel (5300)* has a great match up at home to Hull. I have not gone for the Dane at all this season on DraftKings because Leicester have leaked goals. The Blues had a great response to Claudio Rainieri’s firing on Monday against Liverpool and that momentum will need to move into the weekend for Schmeichel to get his points.
Lukasz Fabianski (5100)** is also at home to weak opposition. Burnley are missing the suspended Ashley Barnes and have only scored 6 goals on the road this year.
My GK pick of the day for DraftKings is Watford’s Heurelho Gomes (4600)*** who is at home to Southampton. Watford are a strong home side and at this price I love the idea of stacking Gomes with Watford defenders allowing me to load up on forwards in GPP.
DraftKings EPL Defenders:
One player I love on Saturday is Alfie Mawson (3300)***. He has been in excellent form in 2017 and has established himself as the leader of Swansea’s improved defense. His points totals have been slightly inflated by scoring 3 goals in the last 7 games – a rate than is unsustainable for a defender – but his defensive stats have been great too. This week he faces Burnley. I’ve noticed that most people fade this matchup away from home, but I love it. Burnley use more long balls than anyone else in the EPL by far and these mean center backs have ample opportunity to get clearances, interceptions, and blocks. Last week Harry Maguire (a very similar player to Mawson) totaled 8 DraftKings points. Maybe he gets you another goal too!
As part of my stack with Gomes, I will be including Jose Holebas (4500)*** and Younes Kaboul (2800)***. Holebas racks up the crosses – which count on DraftKings but not on FanDuel – and he may return to play in midfield this week with Zarate out injured. He has a high ceiling and is a must play in this stack. I will be playing his teammate Kaboul out of sheer value. He is only $2.8k and gives me tons of spare cash to roster 5 forwards.
In GPP play, James Milner (7500)** should always be in consideration. For defenders he ranks first in goals (6) and fourth in assists (3). I am very keen to include designated penalty takers as they can give you that goal boost at any point of the game. Also with Henderson out, Milner may pick up a few free kicks and corners too.
DraftKings EPL Midfielders:
There are only three midfielders over $7k on this slate not playing in the Liverpool v Arsenal game. Gylfi Sigurdsson (9300)*** is top of that list. This is the most he has cost all season, but with so many options coming from that one game, he is the safest bet at the top of the midfield slate. He will be this week’s chalk play and you might not feel able to move away from him in cash games.
Looking at the big match, I recommend stacking players. I will pair Mesut Özil (7200)** with Alexis Sanchez in one lineup. While I’m concerned that Özil’s form is bad and he has a tendency to vanish in big games, I like that his price has dipped and how shaky Liverpool is in defense.
I would also consider pairing Sadio Mane (7900)*** with either Philippe Coutinho (9400)* or Adam Lallana (6900)**. With Firmino out of form, Liverpool’s main goal threat comes from midfield. For cash games I think Gini Wijnaldum (4800)** is the safest play from this game. Henderson is out and he will counted on in both attack and defense.
In researching this week’s games I came across a freak stat: Crystal Palace have conceded 12 goals to left footed strikes away from home this year, including 5 from outside the area! This seems set up for Chris Brunt (6100)** to fire up his left foot and get on the score sheet! I would also be high on Nacer Chadli (5300)*** and James Morrison (4300)**, who are two footed players in the same favorable match up.
Once again, I am going to have 100% exposure on Troy Deeney (5400)*** in DraftKings GPP games. He is priced at a bargain price for a team’s chief goal threat. His designation as Midfield/Forward allows me to play four or five forwards on DraftKings. I very rarely stray from this strategy on this site.
DraftKings EPL Forwards
There has been a dip in price for both Alexis Sanchez (10400)*** and Olivier Giroud (6800)** as they face Liverpool. The Anfield side played on Monday giving up three goals to Leicester. Meanwhile the Arsenal first team have had a huge break since losing to Bayern Munich on February 15th. I like either of these players in GPP, but I love Theo Walcott (7100)*** if he gets to start. Leicester exploited the gap between makeshift defenders Lucas and Milner to great effect. I would only include one of Giroud or Walcott as only one will probably start. You can pivot to the other if your guy doesn’t start.
Jamie Vardy (5900)*** rediscovered last season’s form with a 28+ DraftKings performance. I expect the new manager bump to extend into this weekend. Leicester are at home again to Hull in a ‘6 point’ relegation battle game. As a must win game for both teams, there should be goals. Look out for Hull’s Oumar Niasse (4700)* on the team sheet. It could be worth stacking this game in a GPP tournament.
I’ll be watching the Burnley team sheet on Saturday to see who replaces the suspended Ashley Barnes. If they go with Andre Gray (4900)*** up front on his own, he will have a nice bump to his value. However, if they opt for a straight swap with Sam Vokes (4400)**, I will sneak the Welshman into a lineup because of his value and likely low ownership.
DraftKings EPL Game Week 27 Lineups
Lineup 1
GK: Gomes – Watford
DEF: Holebas – Watford
DEF: Kaboul – Watford
MID: Deeney – Watford
MlD: Sanchez – Arsenal
FWD: Gray – Burnley
FWD: Walcott – Arsenal
UTIL: Sigurdsson – Swansea
Lineup 2
GK: Grant – Stoke
DEF: Mawson – Swansea
DEF: Milner – Liverpool
MID: Ozil – Arsenal
MlD: Sanchez – Arsenal
FWD: Gray – Burnley
FWD: Vardy – Leicester
UTIL: Deeney – Watford