We’re back at it this Saturday on FanDuel EPL DFS! We’re looking at the 12 team main slate and giving tips, picks and analysis.
The star of last week’s slate was Chelsea’s Cesc Fabregas. While Swansea did a good job of keeping Diego Costa and Eden Hazard from running wild, they could not contain the mercurial Spaniard.
The marquee game of the day is the Liverpool v Arsenal in the late kick off. This situation is always a sweat for DFS players as lineups lock at 10am ET and we won’t know the finalized teams for this game. As many as half of these players could be vulnerable to their managers shuffling the team. I will only be rostering players I am fully confidant will be starting. A lot of users will take risks on these lineups so you might want to stack the other games. Leicester v Hull would be my choice for this strategy.
It is crucial to remember that, unlike US sports, the EPL has no official injury reports or designations. The information is usually out there but it is not as simple as looking for an official report. There is also a high amount of rotation within the squads meaning there are often surprises on the team sheets. Teams release their lineups 45 minutes to an hour before kick off – which will be around 9am ET Saturday. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations as accurately as they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The key to all DFS sports is value. Getting the most points out of every dollar spent. On the EPL contests a ratio of 4x every $1000 of budget means a very high scoring lineup to cash big in GPP games.
I rank my picks out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good matchup
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong matchup
FanDuel EPL Goalkeepers
This slate is the week to save money at the GK position if you need to save budget for elsewhere. The three keepers at the top of the slate (Heaton, Valdes & Gomes) don’t have the match-ups to justify their price tags. Everybody else is fairly well priced for their matchup. I could make a case for each of the other nine keepers. Therefore I recommend you pick a strategy and go for it; pursue the clean sheet or have an Attacker/Keeper stack doubling down on one game.
Clean sheet options:
Lee Grant (6500) – Stoke at home to Middlesbrough
Kasper Schmeichel (6300) – Leicester at home to Hull
Fraser Forster (6000) – Southampton away to Watford
Attacker/Keeper stacks:
Petr Cech (6600) – Arsenal away to Liverpool
Eldin Jakupovic (6600) – Hull away to Leicester
Simon Mignolet (6300) – Liverpool at home to Arsenal
Wayne Hennessey (6100) – Crystal Palace away to West Brom
This week I will be chasing a clean sheet in cash games and mainly using Attacker/Keeper stacks in GPP. People get very hesitant about FWD/GK stacks because if their forward scores they lose the 10 point clean sheet bonus. On the flip side, every time your FWD takes a shot that is saved you get 8 points (5 for Shot on Goal, 3 for Save). If you look at Goalkeeper stats they often score the most FanDuel points in games where they concede 3+ goals. This is a strategy I only use in FanDuel as the scoring system in DraftKings does not reward shots and saves as much giving far less upside.
FanDuel EPL Defenders:
The one player I will have 100% exposure on Saturday is Alfie Mawson (6500)***. He has been in excellent form in 2017 and has established himself as the leader of Swansea’s improved defense. His points totals have been slight inflated by scoring 3 goals in the last 7 games – a rate than is unsustainable for a defender – but his defensive stats have also been impressive. This week he faces Burnley. I’ve noticed that people fade defenders at home to Burnley but I love it! Burnley use more long balls than anyone else in the EPL- by far – and this means center backs have ample opportunity to get clearances, interceptions and blocks. Last week Harry Maguire (a very similar player to Mawson) totaled 26 FanDuel points. Maybe he gets you that goal bonus too!
Keeping with that logic I like Mawson’s Swansea defensive partner Federico Fernández (5900)** he has a nice price and would expect him to get around the 20 point mark this week. He doesn’t have quite the same upside as Mawson but is a good play if you want to save some budget. I would also consider stacking the Swansea center backs in cash games.
In GPP James Milner (7300)** should always be in play. For defenders he ranks 1st in goals (6) and 4th in assists (3). I’m always keen to include designated penalty takers as they can give you that 20 point boost at any point of the match. Also, with Henderson out, Milner may pick up a few free kicks and corners too.
The West Brom v Crystal Palace game is where I’m looking for some value picks at the DEF position. Jonny Evans (5300)** came in last week and performed well, making over 4 times his value at 21.5 FanDuel points. With Matt Philipps out Chris Brunt has moved to midfield and Evans should start again. On the other side of the field Mamadou Sakho (5100)*** made his first start last week against Middlesbrough and helped Palace to a clean sheet. This week he matches up with Salomón Rondón in what promises to be a good physical battle. I can see him making 4x value at such a low price.
FanDuel EPL Midfielders:
There is only one midfielder over $7k on this slate not playing in the Liverpool v Arsenal game: Gylfi Sigurdsson (9900)***. This is the most expensive he has been all season but with 12 of the top 15 midfielders from the Anfield game he is the safest bet at the top of the midfield slate. He will be this week’s chalk play and you might not feel able to move away from him in cash games.
If you’re looking to get action in the big match I recommend stacking players. I will pair Mesut Özil (8500)** with Alexis Sanchez in one lineup. While I’m concerned that Özil’s form is poor and he has tendency to vanish in big games, I like that his price has dipped and how shaky Liverpool are in defense.
For another lineup I would consider pairing Philippe Coutinho (9400)** with either Sadio Mane (9900)* or Adam Lallana (8500)*. With Firmino out of form Liverpool’s goal threat comes from midfield. For cash games I think Gini Wijnaldum (7300)** is the safest play from this match. Henderson is out meaning he will be counted on in both attack and defense.
I am disappointed to see DFS article regular Chris Brunt (6400)*** moved back into midfield as I love his attacking upside from defense. Saying that he has a great match up against Crystal Palace. In researching this week’s games I came across a freak stat: Crystal Palace have conceded 12 goals to left footed shots away from home this year, including 5 from outside the area.
This seems set up for Brunt’s cultured left foot to get on the score sheet! I would also be high on Nacer Chadli (6200)** and James Morrison (5600)** who are two footed players in the same favorable match up.
If you’re looking to have a solid cheap play in midfield this week then I would look at Stoke winger Ramadan Sobhi (4700)* who has returned from the African Cup of Nations to post two solid weeks. He should have opportunity to attack this week at home to a defensively minded Middlesbrough team.
FanDuel EPL Forwards
There has been a dip in price for both Alexis Sanchez (12000)** and Olivier Giroud (9300)** as they face Liverpool. The Anfield side played on Monday giving up three goals to Leicester. Meanwhile the Arsenal first team have had a huge break since losing to Bayern Munich on February 15th. I like either of these players in GPP but I love Theo Walcott (8000)*** if he gets to start. Leicester exploited the gap between makeshift defenders Lucas and Milner to great effect.
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Ultimately I will opt for Sanchez as both Giroud and Walcott carry the possibility of not starting and as it is the late game we almost certainly won’t know who will start before lineups lock at 10am. I may have a $1 GPP game with Walcott simply because he will be hardly rostered.
Jamie Vardy (7500)*** rediscovered last season’s form with a 50+ FanDuel performance. I expect the ‘new manager’ bump to extend into this weekend. Leicester are at home again to Hull in a ‘6 point’ relegation battle game. As a must win game for both teams there should be goals. Look out for Hull’s Oumar Niasse (6700)* on the team sheet. Could be worth stacking this game in a GPP tournament.
I’ll be watching the Burnley team sheet on Saturday to see who replaces the suspended Ashley Barnes. If they go with Andre Gray (7000)** up front on his own he will have a nice bump to his value. However is they opt for a straight swap with Sam Vokes (6000)** I will sneak the Welshman into a lineup because of his value and likely low ownership.
FanDuel EPL Game Week 27 Lineups
Lineup 1
FWD: Sanchez – Arsenal
FWD: Vokes – Burnley
MID: Ozil – Arsenal
MlD: Brunt – West Brom
MID:Chadli – West Brom
DEF: Mawson – Swansea
DEF: Milner – Liverpool
GK: Grant – Stoke
Lineup 2
FWD: Sanchez – Arsenal
FWD: Vardy – Leicester
MID: Coutinho – Liverpool
MlD: Wijnaldum – Liverpool
MID: Sobhi – Stoke
DEF: Mawson – Swansea
DEF: Fernandez – Swansea
GK: Cech – Arsenal
Next: DraftKings EPL Picks For March 4th
Best of luck in your FanDuel EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and final roster updates!
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