Phillies: Tommy Joseph a Late Round Power Source in 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Mar 6, 2017

Sep 21, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Tommy Joseph (19) celebrates in the dugout scoring a run during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /

Tommy Joseph was solid for the Phillies once he became their regular first basemen in 2016. But, what should fantasy owners expect from him next season?

The Phillies are a team on the rise, but the 2016 season served as another audition season for a lot of their youngsters. They had multiple young players show flashes of success last season and one of the brightest flashes came from Tommy Joseph. After impressing in his debut, could Joseph be a quality power source this season?

The 24-year-old was once a highly touted catching prospect for the San Francisco Giants and came to Philly in the Hunter Pence deal in 2012. After mashing 35+ homers during his first two minor league seasons, concussions and an eye condition cost him nearly three years of his career.

He was permanently transitioned to first base, and the Phillies patiently waited for him to return to form. The Phillies were practically getting nothing from first base last position, fast tracking Joseph to the majors. After handling AAA last season with ease to begin 2016, he was promoted in May and became the starter in June.

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He finished the 2016 season with a .257/21 HR/47 RBI/.813 OPS over 315 at-bats. Joseph locked down the position and became the run producer that the Phillies had hoped for. Once he got steady at-bats in June, he posted at least 3 HR/8 RBI per month to end the season.

His batted ball profile was not too shabby either. He ended with a 18% LD, 37% GB, 45% FB, 43% Med and 37% Hard contact rates. The LD rate is a little low, but he offset that with a healthy FB and Hard contact rates. According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, he averaged 406 ft. per homer last season, certainly a healthy clip as well.

For those that think it was just Citizens Bank Park helping his power, Joseph actually hit more homers on the road, 11, compared to 10 at home. The power is legitimate and in his small sample size, it is all the more encouraging.

While it is easy to see why Joseph would be a clear late round pick, he does have his red flags. Throughout the minors, he posted a 20% K in the minors and that did not change in the majors. He finished the 2016 season with a 21.6% K and 6.3% BB rate.

That rate clearly led to the low AVG and owners can not expect anything above the .265 mark. But, Joseph did show a positive change in July. From July on, he upped his BB rate to near 10% while lowering his K rate below the 20% mark. It remains to be seen if that change is here to stay, but it was clear that he cut down on his swing and refined his plate approach.

While the AVG will not be there for fantasy owners, the power and RBI production should. With a full season worth of at-bats, he should have no issues eclipsing 25 HR.

He looks to slide into the fifth or sixth spot of the order, which means the likes of Odubel Herera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Howie Kendrick or Michael Saunders would be in front if him. That is not the worst supporting cast owners could ask for, so the counting stats appear to be there.

Next: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Tier Rankings

It is early in the draft season, but Joseph’s current ADP is 275 overall. That would mean he could be had for hardly anything in the later rounds of the draft. He has the potential to post a .255/30 HR/75 RBI type of line, so fantasy owners just circle his name as a great late round power source.

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