Brewers: Ryan Braun and Reasons to Worry Heading into 2017?

Ryan Braun has been one of the steadiest fantasy producers in the league since debuting with the Brewers. But, are there reasons to worry heading into 2017?

It is hard to find a more steady fantasy producer over the last decade than Ryan Braun. The career Brewer has solidified himself as a fantasy dynamo since 2007. Whether it be artificially enhanced or not, the fact remains that the numbers have been there for the Brewers. But, are there some areas of worry for fantasy owners heading into 2017?

It would foolish to pretend that Braun did not have an outstanding year in 2016. A year after coming off back surgery, he ended the season with a .305/30 HR/91 RBI/16 SB/80 R/.903 OPS line. It would be foolish to devalue his performance, and last season marked his third straight season playing in at least 135 games.

Many owners may be thinking, so why should we be worried? The concerns lie in his batted ball data. His LD rate has not moved from 19% the last three seasons, but the GB rate has climbed and the FB rate has dropped. He posted a career-worst 56% GB rate and 25% FB rate in 2016.

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Then there is the authority in which he hit the ball in 2016. Braun notched an 18% Soft contact rate, the highest in five years. His Med contact dropped by nearly 2% and his Hard contact, 34.4%, tied his career-worst clip. This is not to say that his rates are bad, it is just a red flag to see drops across the board.

Playing in Miller Park is always a boost, but there are some questions about Braun’s supporting cast as well. No longer are the likes of Prince Fielder and Jonathan Lucroy flanking him in the lineup. As it looks right now, Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton will be in front of him, while Eric Thames and Domingo Santana will follow him.

Villar had a career season in 2016, and will surely regress, but to what point? He should still be a good bet to get on and run, so Braun should have one solid option to routinely knock in. Boxton has the all the talent to become a dynamic player, but he lacks the resume to bank on. Thames killed it overseas, but was wildly mediocre before he left MLB, so will the numbers transfer back stateside? Santana, like Broxton, has all the talent to be a stud, but can he stay healthy enough to help Braun’s counting stats?

The Brewers are banking on Braun to be the middle of the force producer that he has always been, and for the most part, that will continue. The concern for fantasy owners is that he is being valued as a top-10 OF, even with those lingering dips in his profile and his supporting cast. It would not be a surprise to see him hit .280+ again, he raised his contact rate to 80% last season, but the run production may see a dip.

It is not too hard to envision him posting a .285/25 HR/80 RBI/15 SB type of line, which is solid but not near the .300/30 HR/100 RBI guy that owners are going to want out of their OF1. Critiquing Braun’s numbers may appear to be nit-picking, but for the draft investment it takes to select him, owners have to do their due diligence.

Next: Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka Dealing Early in Spring Training

Ryan Braun is a tremendous player. Owners should not doubt it, nor expect him to lose his talent overnight. But, that does not change the areas of concern that exist heading into 2017. His floor is extremely safe, but the upside could be more limited than owners think.

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Brewers: Ryan Braun and Reasons to Worry in 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Mar 8, 2017

Ryan Braun has been one of the steadiest fantasy producers in the league since debuting with the Brewers. But, are there reasons to worry heading into 2017?