Every season the draft brings a fresh infusion of talent to the NBA. In theory this is an even, steady process. In practice, hindsight and historical perspective show that there are borders and boundaries — talent doesn’t just arrive in the NBA, it arrives in generational waves. Sometimes we can’t see these aesthetic dividing lines for decades, sometimes you simply can’t miss them.
The present day NBA appears to be on the cusp of welcoming a remarkable new generation to its forefront — players who are not just incredible but incredibly unique. Players who will not just excel but transform the roles and responsibilities of basketball players as we understand them. Over the course of this week, The Step Back will be examining many of the players who could figure prominently in The Next Generation. Not every player we turn our attention to is destined to be a star, but all could play a role in defining the future of the NBA. Read the whole series here.
The Next Generation: Nerlens Noel
For as long Nerlens Noel has been part of the broader basketball conversation, he’s still been something of an unknown. He missed what was supposed to be his rookie season after tearing his ACL at Kentucky. When he did play, he averaged 30.8 minutes per game as a rookie. But his minutes has dropped since — 29.3 minutes per game in 2015-16, then to 19.4 minutes per game this year with the 76ers — and it never felt like he was part of the plan in Philadelphia. As a result, Noel has never really been given a chance to show what he is.
Now that he’s been traded to the Mavericks, it feels as if Noel is going to get that chance. He’s only started one game with Dallas so far and he’s only been bumped up to 24.2 minutes per game. But he was acquired at a time when he’s only a few months away from restricted free agency and the franchise has to start looking for life beyond Dirk Nowitzki. For sure, 30,000 point celebrations and a 20th season next year are great — but the next great Mavericks team is probably going to come after Dirk has retired.
Noel will change the Mavs too. In the short term, he’s going to bump the team’s structure. To date, Harrison Barnes has been a power forward with Dallas and he’s been really good. With Noel being best utilized as a five as far as anyone can tell, Barnes gets bumped to three. Wes Matthews then gets bumped to the two-guard spot and it becomes harder to Rick Carlisle to find minutes for all of the useful point guards on his roster.
Noel, though, has made a clear impact. Per 100 possessions, Dallas is 11.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor. And the lineup he’s played the most with with the Mavs — Noel, Dirk, Barnes, Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell — is 23.2 points better per 100 possessions than the opposition. It’s a tiny sample, just 21 minutes and 47 seconds, but promising.
It helps, too, that Noel’s skillset is an easy fit. As much as the jury is still out on actually how good he is, what he is good at has always been easy to project. Even looking as far back as his DraftExpress profile, Noel has always fit a certain player mold. He’s long, athletic, runs the floor well and can protect the rim. He hasn’t really improved in other aspects of his game, but that’s not necessarily a problem if he’s playing for the right team and with the right players.
Just look at what he’s allowed to do with the Mavericks. On defense, he’s typically situated near the basket. But in certain circumstances, he stops the ball and then recovers in to block a shot. It’s not perfect, but he has the athleticism to do it:
Noel is filling the type of role Tyson Chandler once did when the Mavs won a title and became a favorite of Marc Cuban’s, even though he was he allowed to walk twice. This is not to say that Noel is as good as peak Tyson Chandler — because 2010-11 Tyson Chandler was a freaking stud — but he fits next to Dirk in the same way. In Dallas, Noel is tasked with doing what he does best: blocking shots, rim-running and dunking. There is simply no need for him to do anything else.
Just look here as Noel blocks Marc Gasol. It’s an example of how talented he is on defense and just watch what he does immediately after his team secures the ball and looks up the floor:
And look at how he blocks Chandler Parsons here. Noel reads the offense correctly as Parsons attacks in isolation and his man — Gasol — is taken out of the play. All that’s left for him to do is time the block correctly:
What come next for Noel is, in all likelihood, a future in Dallas. For the next season-plus, his job is to help the Mavericks maximize what’s left of Dirk’s career and learn from one of the best players of the past 20 years. It’s not likely that includes a title run, but making the playoffs and sending Nowitzki out on a high note is a realistic goal. He’ll be paid well too, as he’s likely to get a big contract this summer. He won’t get the $140.8 million FiveThirtyEight projects his five-year market value to be, but $100 million seems possible. At the very least, a deal like Hassan Whiteside’s four-year, $98 million contract with the Heat is a good place to start.
From there, Noel’s career will become his own story. Assuming Nowitzki retires after the 2017-18 season, Noel will be 24. Barnes will be 26. Maybe Dallas can turn the money that had been going to Dirk into one or two useful role players. Or maybe it can go to a star. Barnes-Noel-Player X doesn’t scream “title contender!”, but there’s room there to settle into something above a No. 8 seed.
Noel will play a big part in that, assuming he stays in Dallas. Unless the Mavericks completely bottom out after Dirk leaves, it’ll bel hard for them to acquire any top-level young talent. When the time comes for a post-Dirk world, Noel will be given a chance to improve into more than he is now. He’ll get the chance to post-up and score one vs. one on the block. He may get the chance to score in more spots than at the rim. Maybe Dallas even gets crazy and try to make him into a corner 3-point shooter. Or maybe he picks up a one-legged fadeaway from a certain German.
The point is that Noel is going to get the chance to grow and he now has a chance to help shape a team’s future. He didn’t have that in Philadelphia and Dallas is one the best landing spots for him considering the needs of both teams. He isn’t perfect, and he has to improve, but a foundation is there for him to be a cornerstone in Dallas.
Now, for the first time, Noel gets a chance to truly shine. Now, he will no longer be a mystery.