Marlins Justin Bour: First Base Fantasy Sleeper

Miami Marlins’ Justin Bour is one of the most undervalued first basemen in fantasy baseball. He has the potential to be a valuable sleeper this season.

Marlins’ first baseman Justin Bour hit 23 home runs and 20 doubles in 409 at-bats in 2015. He dominated right-handers to the tune of .845 OPS but struggled mightily against left-handers with only 15 hits in 68 at-bats. Despite a career 120 OPS+, Bour is an unfashionable name in the world of fantasy baseball but perhaps that will change in 2017.

Last season, the list of sluggers, regardless of position, who walked 10% of the time, struck out in less than 20% of their at-bats and had Isolated Power (ISO) above .200, is a very small and very elite list.

Isolated Power is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. The resulting figure is the batter’s ability to hit for extra-bases. It is a good indication of their power.

2016 sluggers (>10 BB%, <20 K% and >.200 ISO)

David Ortiz
Nolan Arenado
Edwin Encarnacion
Josh Donaldson
Anthony Rizzo
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Santana
Matt Carpenter
Joey Votto
Kyle Seager
Jose Bautista
Steve Pearce
Justin Bour

As I said, a very small and very elite list.

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In 2016, Bour continued in a platoon, being restricted to just 30 at-bats against southpaws but slashed .268/.361/.496 against right-handed pitchers, with 15 home runs in just 250 at-bats.

There is little to choose between the projections of Victor Martinez, Matt Holliday or Justin Bour. All three are expected to produce in the region of 20 home runs, 55 runs, 70 RBI with .270 AVG.

The big difference is that Bour (ADP 329) is available 138 picks later than Martinez and 88 picks after Holliday.

The sleeper potential of Bour was noteworthy even before Marlins’ manager Don Mattingly suggested that the 28-year-old will be his primary first baseman, avoiding a platoon in 2017. This opens up the potential for a significant boost in playing time.

The Marlins are using Spring Training to help Bour improve his approach against left-handed pitching and he currently leads the team in Grapefruit League at-bats. The initial results have not been overly impressive (5-for-26 with one home run), and the Marlins already have a contingency plan of occasionally utilizing catcher J.T Realmuto at first base.

Helping Bour’s quest for greater playing time is the dearth of left-handed starters in the NL East. The Nationals’ Gio Gonzalez, Braves’ Jaime Garcia and Mets’ Stephen Matz are the only three expected to be named in Opening Day rotations.

Bour missed 57 games with an ankle injury sustained at the start of July and he failed to hit for power when he returned in September. If his season stats excluded the 22 powerless, post-injury games, he would have posted an eye-opening .258 ISO.

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Everything is trending in the right direction. There was an uptick in his hard-hit ball rate, a drop in ground ball percentage and he even went opposite field for a career-high 24.7%. The left-hander improved his walk rate to 11.8 BB% while simultaneously reducing his strikeout rate from 22.6% to 17.4%. He is expected to bat sixth behind the ominous trio of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. A 30 home run, 100 RBI season looks a possibility if he can stay healthy.

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