2017 NCAA Tournament: First Four Predictions
The 2017 NCAA Tournament kicks off tomorrow with two of the First Four (or play-in games for you tongue-in-cheekers). Two of these are nothing more than whipping boys for Kansas and Villanova, but the other two winners could have a major impact on this year’s tournament!
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Why do I say that? Well in every year since the tournament expanded to 68 teams beginning with the 2011 tournament, one of the first four have advanced past the first round. Virginia Commonwealth even made the Final Four in 2011 after starting in the First Four! That is really quite remarkable when you consider that two of the four play-in games are reserved for 16 seeds!
Who can advance from this field of eight to bust a bracket? It likely wont be Mount St. Marys, New Orleans, North Carolina Central, or UC-Davis since a 16 seed has never defeated a 1 seed.
This also begins the round-by-round tournament on CBS Sports, though most conventional bracket pools do not feature these four games. I will keep giving the round-by-round picks throughout the tournament!
(16)Mount St. Marys(19-15) vs. (16)New Orleans(20-11):
Mount St. Marys:
Tournament record: 1-4
Tournament appearance: 5th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Mountaineers
Location: Emmitsburg, MD
The Mountaineers picked up their first NCAA Tournament victory back in 2008 over Coppin State in the play-in game that year when it really was a play-in game. They have never been anything but a 16 seed
The guard tandem of Elijah Long and Junior Robinson have carried this team all year. Robinson is sometimes hard to find at just 5’5″ tall. Mawdo Sallah and Chris Wray make the Mountaineers a rare mid-major with size in the middle. Neither of them are much of an offensive threat, but they are capable.
New Orleans:
Tournament record: 1-4
Tournament appearance: 5th
Last appearance: 1996
Mascot: Privateers
Location: New Orleans, LA
The Privateers returned all five starters from a team that finished 10-20 last year. This is quite a turnaround, and a good story to follow! Their lone tournament win came in 1987 at a seven seed. They took down BYU before losing to two seed Alabama.
Erik Thomas is the leader of this team, and is going to be fun to watch against the size Mount St. Marys has in the middle. New Orleans also has their own version of a mighty-mite in 5’8″ Christavious Gill. He is an accomplished scorer at well, and will be fun to watch against Robinson.
New Orleans was the third worst division one team in committing turnovers, and shoots just 32% from outside. They are a feisty bunch, but I don’t think they have the size to tangle with the Mountaineers in the middle.
Pick: Mount St. Marys
(11)Kansas State(20-13) vs. (11)Wake Forest(19-13):
Kansas State:
Tournament record: 33-32
Tournament appearance: 29th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Manhattan, KS
Kansas State is a tough team, but that doesn’t exactly make them good. They lack a skilled scorer, but they have four players that average between 11 and 12.5 points per game. If K-State finds themselves in need of someone to take over a game, I’m not sure they have it. Then again, they did beat Baylor twice this year, so they are capable of beating good teams.
Wake Forest:
Tournament record: 28-22
Tournament appearance: 23rd
Last appearance: 2010
Mascot: Demon Deacons
Location: Winston-Salem, NC
This is Wake’s first ever double digit seeding in the NCAA tournament in 23 tries. This has the look of a team that can make a run. They don’t play tough defense, but Jason Collins is a monster on the inside. He nearly averaged a double-double this year!
Jason Collins is a great player, but he hasn’t been able to carry the team by himself. Wake only beat one ranked team, number eight Louisville, this season. Kansas State fared much better against ranked teams, but the Wildcats are the type of team that Wake matches up well against. As mentioned before, they lack a big-time playmaker, which gives Wake a bit of an advantage. And who in the world in going to guard Jason Collins?
Kansas State is the bigger threat to destroy a bracket, but they are going to have a whole mess of trouble in this one.
Pick: Kansas State
(16)North Carolina Central(25-8) vs. (16)UC-Davis(22-12):
North Carolina Central:
Tournament record: 0-1
Tournament appearance: 2nd
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Eagles
Location: Durham, NC
They are the less-famous team from Durham, but they did beat Missouri this year. It’s at least a name! Senior guards Patrick Cole and Dajuan Graf account for nearly a third of the team’s scoring output. They were also on that 2014 team that lost to Iowa State. This is a veteran team with both NIT and NCAA tournament experience, so they wont be intimidated.
UC-Davis:
Tournament record: 0-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Aggies
Location: Davis, CA
Davis was able to outlast regular season Big West champion UC-Irvine in the title game to earn their first tournament berth. Unfortunately, they cost us a great nickname in the Anteaters, but hey, at least we still have the Privateers, the Norse, and the Jackrabbits to name a few.
The Aggies are a deep team that has seven players that average more than 20 minutes per game. Davis doesn’t have a lot of size, but this is a veteran team. Will the lack of tournament experience hurt them?
North Carolina Central is the third-best team in the country in three point percentage allowed, but how much of that is the inferior competition of the MEAC? Davis is a solid shooting team from the outside, but that may be neutralized here. The experience of the Eagles likely makes a difference here in what will most certainly be a close game.
Pick: North Carolina Central
(11)Providence(20-12) vs. (11)USC(24-9):
Providence:
Tournament record: 15-19
Tournament appearance: 19th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Friars
Location: Providence, RI
The Friars used wins over Butler and Creighton down the stretch to propel them into the tournament. Many thought that the lost to Creighton in the Big East semis would cost them a tournament berth, but they did sneak in over Syracuse and Illinois State.
Rodney Bullock and Emmitt Holt give opposing teams fits up front. The Friars are a little vulnerable on the perimeter, but Jalen Lindsey is a very good player. Kyron Cartwright can score from the point, and does a little bit of everything. This starting five have all been a part of three straight NCAA tournament berths, so experience is on their side.
USC:
Tournament record: 11-20
Tournament appearance: 18th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Trojans
Location: Los Angeles, CA
USC managed to take down crosstown rival UCLA in one out of the three tries. They also took down American champion SMU back in November. The Trojans stumbled to the finish with a tough late season schedule, but was still rewarded by the committee for the strength of it.
The return of Bennie Boatwright at the end of the season helped the Trojans. Chimezie Metu has been a force in the interior, while Elijah Stewart and Jordan McLaughlin bother averaged more than 12 points per game again this year.
Who says the NCAA doesn’t have a sense of humor? These two teams met in the first round of last year’s tournament as well. Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil were the keys to the Friars’ one point win, and both of them are gone. USC loses Jovanovic, but Boatwright, Stewart, and McLaughlin all hit double digits in last year’s loss. I tend to think the Trojans get revenge this year.
Pick: USC
Stay tuned for all of my bracket picks, and more of the round by round picks. We also have DFS picks for the NBA, NHL, and even the EPL!