Nylon Calculus: Paul George is settling

Paul George has been dynamite from the free throw line this year. His free throw percentage is currently at 92.3 percent — the best mark in the league and more than seven percentage points better than his 85.1 career average. And yet, despite that surge in efficiency, George is scoring 1.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on free throws, because he’s taking far less than he has in the past.

George’s free throw rate has fallen to .283 this season, a steep drop off from his last two full seasons where he was at .341 and .364. He’s also taking the lowest percentage of his shot attempts within three feet of the basket of his career. As you would expect, this corresponds with a sharp increase in his long 2-point attempts — currently at a career-high. This shift in George’s game can be attributed to several factors and it’s difficult to completely apportion responsibility.

Take the video below, for example.

George gets a high screen from Myles Turner and has the opportunity to attack David Lee on a switch. Theoretically, this is an ideal matchup for George to get all the way to the rim and draw contact. However, the middle of the floor is incredibly crowded because of the Pacers’ poor spacing. None of the other three players on the floor — Rodney Stuckey, Monta Ellis, or Thad Young — are threatening outside shooters. This allows Dewayne Dedmon to hang out on the baseline and both Patty Mills and Manu Ginobili to pinch down towards the elbows.

George opts for the pull-up jumper which, realistically, may have been his best play. For his career, George shoots roughly 40 percent on long 2-pointers, which is a respectable percentage. That shot is an important part of his offensive tool box as release valve when nothing else is available, but the more often he’s taking it the less value it has.

According to the NBA’s player tracking statistics, last season George averaged about 1.9 pull-up 2-pointers for every trip to the free throw line. This season, that number has climbed to 2.4. That may not seem like a small increase but it’s significant when you consider that relative trade-off in expected value between those two scenarios — 0.88 points per possession for a pull-up 2-pointer and 1.85 for a trip to the free throw line. It stands out even more when you compare that to some of his peers. Jimmy Butler’s ratio of pull-up 2-pointers to trips to the free throw line is 1.5. LeBron James is at 1.1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is at 0.9.

Next: Progressing toward personalized analytics - A Q&A with Patrick Lucey of STATS

The Pacers lack of spacing is certainly crowding the lane and making it difficult for George to get all the way to the basket. But he also seems more willing to settle for those midrange pull-ups than he has at other points in his career. A concerted effort to get George to the basket (and the foul line), both through his own decision-making and rotational and strategic decisions by the coaching staff, could provide some juice to an offense that has been roughly league average for most of the season.