2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: West Region Predictions

It’s that time of year again. The 2017 NCAA basketball tournament brackets are out. Millions of people wager billions of dollars on this annually. From the secretary at the office that chips in $5 for the pool and just picks the favorite mascots to the hardcore fans that play in Calcutta’s worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, there is something for everyone.

(1)Gonzaga(32-1) vs. (16)South Dakota State(18-16):

Gonzaga:
Tournament record: 24-19
Tournament appearance: 20th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Bulldogs
Location: Spokane, WA

Gonzaga last missed an NCAA tournament in 1998. They have won at least one game in each tournament since 2009. However, for those of you that think this is Gonzaga’s year, they have never made a Final Four. For all of the tournament success they have had, they have never made it to the promised land. Furthermore, they have never even advanced past the first weekend as a one or a two seed. The Zags are still trying to get used to being the giant instead of the giant killer.

The Bulldogs may be the most complete team in this year’s tournament. Five players average double digit points. Every starter averaged at least three rebounds per game. Five players shoot 50% or better from the floor. This also looks like the most complete Gonzaga team we have seen. That said, their one loss was to a BYU team that isn’t a very strong team.

South Dakota State:
Tournament record: 0-3
Tournament appearance: 4th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Jackrabbits
Location: Brookings, SD

The Jackrabbits were in as a 12 seed last year, but couldn’t quite get over the hump against Maryland. They return eight players from last year’s team, including team leader Mike Daum.

As promising as the Jackrabbits seemed to be though, they still finished fifth in the Summit League this year. Their reward for the conference tournament run is facing a deep and talented Gonzaga team that only lost once. I know there are hoards of people saying that SDSU could become the first 16 seed to take down a one seed. The 16’s are getting closer, but this wont be it.

Pick: Gonzaga

(8)Northwestern(23-11) vs. (9)Vanderbilt(19-15):

Northwestern:
Tournament record: 0-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Evanston, IL

There have been 77 NCAA Tournaments, the first of which culminated at Northwestern in 1939, but the Wildcats have never been in one. Until now. They are the last major conference school to get invited, and the highest seed in a tournament debut since Seton Hall in 1988

Now on to the meat of the matter. Northwestern is a similar team to Wisconsin in that they don’t score much and they play really good defense. Northwestern is huge – they have seven players who are 6’7″ or taller – and young. They have just two seniors on this team. The Wildcats didn’t get a particularly good draw, but they are going to be geeked out for this one. This is a winnable game for them.

Vanderbilt:
Tournament record: 10-15
Tournament appearance: 15th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Commodores
Location: Nashville, TN

Last year’s leader Wade Baldwin is now in the NBA, but Vandy did make it back to the dance. They lead the field in one category: losses. They are in because they beat a ranked Florida team not once, or twice, but three times this year.

Vanderbilt is essentially Northwestern lite. They don’t shoot particularly well, they play solid defense, and they are huge up front, boasting 6’10” Djery Baptiste and 7’1″ Luke Kornet.

This is going to be a slow-moving game. There will be a lot of banging going on in the middle. I like Northwestern coming in riding a high note, and their overall size, not just on the inside.

Pick: Northwestern

(5)Notre Dame(25-9) vs. Princeton(23-6):

Notre Dame:
Tournament record: 37-39
Tournament appearance: 36th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Fighting Irish
Location: South Bend, IN

The Irish have made two straight regional finals. Can they make it three straight? They return three starters and the sixth man from last year’s team. That sixth man, Bonzie Colson, is one exciting player to watch. He is a tough matchup for anyone.

Once again, the Irish are a balanced team that shoots well from the outside. They aren’t as deep as last year’s team, and they really only have four starters that they trust. The good part for the Irish is that they wont be rattled by anything the tournament throws at them.

Princeton:
Tournament record: 13-28
Tournament appearance: 25th
Last appearance: 2011
Mascot: Tigers
Location: Princeton, NJ

The Tigers are back in the dance after a six year drought, but they have not won a NCAA tournament game since 1998. Princeton will slow you down and play great defense. They are tenth in points allowed this year, surrendering just 61.6 points per game. Oh, and they haven’t lost a game in the 2017 calendar year.

If you are looking for a 12 to upset a five, this is probably not the place. The Irish can play a slow game as they often try to do the same to their opponents. Princeton needs to get and stay hot from outside to have a shot here, but they have generated more offense from three pointers than two pointers this year. None of those were against teams that can defend like the Irish.

Pick: Notre Dame

(4)West Virginia(26-8) vs. (13)Bucknell(26-8):

West Virginia:
Tournament record: 27-27
Tournament appearance: 28th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Mountaineers
Location: Morgantown, WV

The Mountaineers were upset by Stephen F. Austin last year after making the Sweet Sixteen in 2015. However, unlike past seasons, the Mountaineers actually averaged 82 points per game, good for 21st in the nation. Their relentless press forces a ton of turnovers, the most of any power conference team in the last 15 years actually, but they have some explosiveness to them this year. Keep in mind, this team not only beat Kansas, but they beat them by 16 points!

Jevon Carter does a little of everything for this team. He averages a ridiculous 2.6 steals per game. The Mountaineers have eight players that average more than five points per game, and ten players that average at least 11 minutes per game. They just keep coming at you.

Bucknell:
Tournament record: 2-6
Tournament appearance: 7th
Last appearance: 2013
Mascot: Bison
Location: Lewisburg, PA

Bucknell beat both Mount Saint Marys and Vanderbilt out of conference this year. They dominated the Patriot League this year, and are looking for their first NCAA tournament win since 2006.

The problem here for Bucknell is that they turn it over on averaged 13 times per game. Zach Thomas and Nana Foulland are good enough to give the Mountaineers trouble up front, but I don’t have enough faith in Bucknell’s guards to take care of the ball in this one to pull the upset.

Pick: West Virginia

(6)Maryland(24-8) vs. (11)Xavier(21-13)

Maryland
Tournament record: 41-25
Tournament appearance: 27th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Terrapins
Location: College Park, MD

The Terps have not lost in the first round since 1997. Most experts think that streak is in jeopardy, but I’m not so sure. Melo Trimble is a future star at the next level. However, he has an inconsistent supporting cast.

The Terrapins do boast seven wins against tournament teams this year, but they did struggle down the stretch, losing six of the last ten games. The bad news for Maryland is that historically teams that struggle down the stretch don’t fare well in the tournament.

Xavier
Tournament record: 24-26
Tournament appearance: 27th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Musketeers
Location: Cincinnati, OH

The Musketeers have the most tournament wins of any team to not make a Final Four. That is a rather dubious distinction. They earned a two seed last year, only to be ousted by Wisconsin in the second round. The Musketeers returned three starters from that game, including star Trevon Bluiett, and were saddled with a top 15 ranking to open the season.

Then game the injuries. Only two starters played in every game this season. Myles Davis, a starter last year, played just 34 minutes in three games. Edmond Sumner is gone for the rest of the season. He also started last year. The good part is that several players have stepped up, but it also resulted in a six game losing streak in February.

There is no doubt in my mind that Xavier is the better team, but how healthy will they be? Melo Trimble is capable of taking the game over on his own. However, as long as Bluiett and J.P. Macura score like they can, this is a winnable game for Xavier.

Pick: Xavier

(3)Florida State(25-8) vs. (14)Florida Gulf Coast(26-7):

Florida State:
Tournament record: 15-14
Tournament appearance: 15th
Last appearance: 2012
Mascot: Seminoles
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Jonathan Isaac is an absolute freak. the 6’10” freshman star shoots 50% from the floor, 80% from the line, and 35% from downtown. The Seminoles are the tallest team in the tourney, and have 11 players that average at least ten minutes per game. This team is littered with NBA caliber talent. Their length and scoring make them a tough matchup for anyone.

Florida Gulf Coast:
Tournament record: 3-2
Tournament appearance: 3rd
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Eagles
Location: Fort Myers, FL

Yes, the Eagles actually have a winning tournament record. Their first berth as a 15 seed in 2013 resulted in a Sweet Sixteen berth. For an encore, they won their play in game last year by an astonishing 31 points.

This team may be even better than the Dunk City squad that took Omaha by storm. There are some that think this team is even better than the Mercer team that took down Duke in 2014. Brandon Goodwin and Zach Johnson provide a formidable guard trio, and this team is also deep. They have 11 players that average at least nine minutes per game.

This is going to be a track meet. It will be a partisan Eagles crowd as well since Fort Myers is closer to Orlando than Tallahassee is. I think Florida Gulf Coast puts up a fight, but the length and athleticism of the Seminoles will be too much.

Pick: Florida State

(7)Saint Mary’s(28-4) vs. (10)Virginia Commonwealth(26-8):

Saint Mary’s
Tournament record: 4-8
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 2013
Mascot: Gaels
Location: Moraga, CA

If you didn’t know any better, you would think the Gaels are located in Australia. They have seven Aussies on the roster! This is likely Saint Mary’s best team ever, and they were overshadowed by the Gonzaga juggernaut this year. At least they got an at-large bid, but the Gaels also look severely under seeded.

Jock Landale does a lot of everything for this team. He can even hit the occasional three pointer. The guard tandem of Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon give the team a nice inside-out dynamic. This team shoots 40% from outside, which makes them a threat to beat anyone.

Virginia Commonwealth
Tournament record: 13-15
Tournament appearance: 16th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Rams
Location: Richmond, VA

The Rams are making their seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance. Once again, this is a dangerous team. The trademark tough defense and outside shooting are still there, but this team is one of the more balanced ones the Rams have had.

JeQuan Lewis is the star, but Justin Tillman is a force up front, and Mo Alie-Cox is one of the most prolific shot blockers in the nation. There are a lot of seniors on this team, and they present a tough matchup for St. Mary’s.

You can argue that both of these teams got a bad draw. St Mary’s could have been as high as a four seed. They beat two tournament teams and two other conference champions. However, they lost to Gonzaga by double digits all three times. VCU is not without their big wins. They beat Princeton and upset-darling Middle Tennessee State earlier this year.

Pick: Saint Mary’s

(2)Arizona(30-4) vs. North Dakota(22-9):

Arizona
Tournament record: 54-32
Tournament appearance: 34th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Tucson, AZ

This is Arizona’s fifth straight NCAA tournament berth. They were ousted by Wichita State last year as a six seed, but they have done well with high seeds under Sean Miller. Arizona has reached three regional final games since 2011.

Allonzo Trier does a lot of everything, and is a fun player to watch. Lauri Markkanen is a force inside with a devastating outside shot. He is a matchup nightmare for just about anyone. Arizona shoots well and rebounds well. They look poised to make a run this year.

North Dakota
Tournament record: 0-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Fighting Hawks (Sioux)
Location: Grand Forks, ND

My wife is happy to see her alma mater on the national stage, but is very confused by the whole FIghting Hawks thing. They were the Fighting Sioux when she was growing up and when she attended. After a bitter renaming fiasco, the Fighting Hawks were finally settled on. Me? I’m just excited to see another team from my home state get a shot! Hey, it’s North Dakota! Not much there besides hockey, hockey, Corso the Bison, and hockey.

Quinton Hooker is a scoring machine, a good rebounder for a guard, and a tough defender. Geno Crandall is a solid Robin to his Batman.

This is a really tough matchup for North Dakota in their first tournament appearance. Of course, Arizona lost to Santa Clara as a two seed in 1993, led by some guy named Steve Nash. He went on to become a household name and a possible Hall of Famer. I’m not saying that North Dakota has anywhere near that kind of talent, but it makes for an interesting story.

Pick: Arizona

Next: East Region Capsule

Since we all have to fill out our brackets all the way to the end before we turn them in, here are my picks for the West.

First round winners: Gonzaga, Northwestern, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Xavier, Florida State, Saint Mary’s, Arizona

Second round: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Florida State, St Mary’s

Regional semifinal: Gonzaga, Florida State

Winner: Florida State

Stay tuned for the picks from the rest of the regions and the round by round picks! We also have our daily NBA and NHL picks for you DFS players!