The Tampa Bay Rays 2011 draft class was once so promising. Blake Snell remains the Rays’ last redeeming chance, but don’t bank your fantasy season on this so-called ‘sleeper’ just yet.
Just over a year ago, Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect Blake Snell made his Spring debut in catastrophic fashion. After a single inning, Snell surrendered three hits, three runs, and a walk, with a monster home run to make it a largely forgettable day.
Fast forward to 2017, and you’ll probably realize Snell has come a long way. He’s perhaps the favorite to become the Rays’ front of the rotation starter, and at 24 years old, the long wait might finally be worth the reward.
On Tuesday, Snell faced the Baltimore Orioles. While his Spring this year hasn’t been as turbulent as it was last season, Snell has faced several challenges, and it was evident again this week that it’s not entirely smooth sailing just yet.
Snell walked five batters on Tuesday, allowed a run and looked pretty wobbly in 2 2/3 innings. The entire focus for Snell’s Spring has been to reduce walks, especially after giving up 51 in 89 innings last year, but now, the command still looks to be an issue.
From the Rays’ standpoint, it’s easy to understand why they might be concerned. Snell looks to be the only lefty capable of starting in the rotation this season, and after so many hours of work have been invested, there’s still worrying signs all over the place.
As for you, here are the ones you should care about:
Changeup Command
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Snell has four pitches in his arsenal: the fastball, the slider, the curveball and the changeup. The fastball is by far one of Snell’s strongest pitches, as he threw it for a velocity rating of 93.5 last year.
The pitch we’re concerned with, however, is the changeup because Snell still can’t get it right.
Against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 9, Snell’s location was way off against a side of mainly B-grade hitters who made him look mediocre. The changeup was all over the place, and funnily enough, it’s been a problem Snell has failed to correct since forever.
In 2016 Snell’s changeup fell to the bottom of the strike zone nearly every time. In the 308 times he threw the pitch, 3.1% of the time it fell low and outside the strike zone, towards the batters’ ankles. Snell struck out only 15.5% of batters last year with the changeup, the lowest percentage of all four pitches he throws.
The problem Snell has with his changeup command has a domino effect. When it’s off, he relies on his fastball way too much, and it makes a hitters’ job easy. The longer Snell continues to throw it low and in the dirt, the longer we’re likely to see high a walk rate.
And the Hits Keep Coming
The changeup is one thing, but Snell’s command can go haywire on the fastball at times too. During a late February Grapefruit League game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Snell’s fastball was hanging up in the zone, which led to a few tough situations against a young and promising Phillies offense.
Again, this wasn’t the first time Snell found himself in trouble. So far this Spring he’s given up three doubles in only 6.2 innings pitched, accompanied by four earned runs. Snell gave up 93 hits and a woeful 1.62WHIP, numbers that don’t seem likely to decrease anytime soon.
Allowing five hits to the aforementioned Pirates B-grade squad last week isn’t a great look either.
Limited Innings
Snell’s little value last season came in strikeouts and the pure fact that he was a prospect worth stashing if you didn’t already hold Jameson Taillon or Lucas Giolito. Other than that, you were left with a sloppy command guy who managed to last a high of only 6.2 innings against the Oakland Athletics back in July.
The main reason Snell struggled to last until the midway point in most games was because he found himself in a jam early. This season the Rays will likely be looking to extend his innings and test Snell’s confidence, but the endless struggles in Spring thus far should still be a concern for manager Kevin Cash.
If Snell can lower his walk rate of 12.7% and claim an ERA lower than the 3.54 he owned last season, then he could very well become the Rays’ front of the rotation starter. If he regresses, though, his fantasy value doesn’t hold if his innings continue to be capped.
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Snell’s next Spring start may come against the Phillies or the Pirates next week before the season kicks off. If he surrenders another couple of runs, walks and looks dodgy with command, it might be time to forget about Snell and start focusing on Jose De Leon as the Rays’ next big thing.