2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: Midwest Region Predictions

We are on the eve of the 2017 NCAA basketball tournament! Millions of people wager billions of dollars on this annually. From the secretary at the office that chips in $5 for the pool and just picks the favorite mascots to the hardcore fans that play in Calcutta’s worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, there is something for everyone.

(1)Kansas(27-7) vs. (16)UC-Davis(23-12):

Kansas
Tournament record: 100-44
Tournament appearance: 46th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Jayhawks
Location: Lawrence, KS

The Jayhawks have not missed a NCAA tournament since 1989. Judging by our demographic, half of you weren’t even alive then. Let that sink in for a minute.

I said earlier this year that this Kansas team reminded me of the 2008 team that won the National Title. They are experienced, and don’t really have a “star” player. Frank Mason comes close. Kansas fans have watched him grow in this program to a first round pick in the NBA. Josh Jackson and Devonte’ Graham may be lottery picks. One thing that could hold the Jayhawks back here is that they don’t have a deep bench this year.

There is also the little tidbit that no team has ever won a National Title after losing in the first round of their conference tournament. Kansas lost to TCU in the first round of the Big 12(10) conference tournament.

UC-Davis:
Tournament record: 1-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Aggies
Location: Davis, CA

The Aggies put a cherry on top of their first tournament berth last night with a NCAA tournament win. Now they just become chum for Kansas.

Pick: Kansas

(8)Miami(FL)(21-11) vs. (9)Michigan State(19-14):

Miami(FL):
Tournament record: 8-8
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Hurricances
Location: Coral Gables, FL

The Hurricanes have consecutive NCAA tournament berths for just the second time in school history. The leaders of last year’s Sweet Sixteen team, Sheldon McClelland and Angel Rodriguez are gone.

This year’s team still relies on strong guard play from Davon Reed and Ja’Quan Newton. Once again, the Hurricanes aren’t a particularly big team, but they play really tough defense. They are 16-0 when allowing 65 points or less this year. Can they keep the Spartans under that?

Michigan State:
Tournament record: 63-29
Tournament appearance: 31st
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Spartans
Location: East Lansing, MI

The Spartans did something last year that Tom Izzo coached teams just don’t do. They lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament! They have been in every NCAA tournament since 1998. They have lost in the first round just five times. Sparty has made the Final Four seven times in that span.

Only Eron Harris remains from that two seeded team that was ousted by Middle Tennessee State. Gavin Schilling and Matt McQuaid played meaningful minutes in that game. This is still a veteran team loaded with players that have grown up in this program. However, freshmen Miles Bridges and Nick Ward are the keys to this team.

As far as the numbers go, this is a very average Michigan State team. On coaching, this team could make a beeline for the Final Four. This is a relatively easy bracket. If they get hot, look out!

Pick: Michigan State

(5)Iowa State(23-10) vs. (12)Nevada(28-6):

Iowa State:
Tournament record: 18-18
Tournament appearance: 19th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Cyclones
Location: Ames, IA

This is the sixth straight tournament berth for Iowa State. The only starter left from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team is Monte Morris. Morris has had a season for the ages. Not only is he the leading scorer and passer, he has turned the ball over just 35 times all season. This in a conference that prides itself on beating the tar out of opponents.

The emergence of Nazareth Mitrou-Long and Deonte Burton this season has turned this into a well rounded team. They shoot well, they rebound very well, and they don’t turn the ball over. Those are all marks of a team that can make a good tournament run. This team beat Kansas, in Lawrence, snapping a 51 game home winning streak for the Jayhawks. They are capable of beating anyone.

Nevada:
Tournament record: 4-6
Tournament appearance: 7th
Last appearance: 2007
Mascot: Wolfpack
Location: Reno, NV

The Wolfpack ended a ten year tournament drought with a team that loves to run. The loss of Elijah Foster hurt, but all four of the other starters averaged more than 14 points per game. Cameron Oliver and Jordan Caroline are outstanding rebounders and all-around beasts in the middle.

Oliver wont be able to dominate the middle like he did in the Mountain West. At 6’8″, he is average for what Iowa State is used to facing. Any team capable of scoring like the Wolfpack do is capable of pulling an upset. I tend to think that Iowa State is a little too good for that, but Nevada is going to make it interesting.

Pick: Iowa State

(4)Purdue(25-7) vs. (13)Vermont(29-5):

Purdue:
Tournament record: 35-28
Tournament appearance: 29th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Boilermakers
Location: West Lafayette, IN

This is Purdue’s third straight NCAA tournament bid. They have not made it out of the first round yet, losing two games by a combined three points. Vince Edwards started both of those games. He and do-everything sophomore Caleb Swanigan have a bad taste in their mouth from last year.

The 6’9″ Swanigan is a matchup nightmare. He averages 18.5 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. Oh, and he shoots 43.1% from three point land. If someone can shut down Swanigan, Purdue is beatable. That is a big if though.

Vermont:
Tournament record: 2-5
Tournament appearance: 6th
Last appearance: 2012
Mascot: Catamounts
Location: Burlington, VT

Vermont made it back to the tournament on the strength of their defense. They destroyed the America East conference this year, not losing in the regular season or conference tourney. In fact, the last time they lost was December 21st to number 13 Butler.

Payton Henson and Anthony Lamb are accomplished post players, but they haven’t seen anything like Swanigan. Andrew Chrabascz blew up for 28 against the Catamounts. Swanigan is likely better than him.

Pick: Purdue

(6)Creighton(25-9) vs. (11)Rhode Island(24-9)

Creighton:
Tournament record: 12-20
Tournament appearance: 20th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Blue Jays
Location: Omaha, NE

The Jays are back in the tournament for the first time since Doug McDermott graduated to the NBA. This team could be the best one that Creighton has ever had, even without one of the better all-around guards, Maurice Watson.

The bad news is that the Jays are only 7-8 since Watson tore his ACL. They were 18-1 with the only loss being to number one Villanova prior to that. The onus is now on Marcus Foster and freshman beast Justin Patton. Khyri Thomas needs to become close to the distributor that Watson was in order for this team to do what they are capable of.

Creighton is huge – they have three players 6’10” or taller – and they can all shoot from outside. This is what Wisconsin would be if they decided to run instead of play defense. This team would be capable of great things if the could have figured out how to play without Watson.

Rhode Island:
Tournament record: 6-8
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 1999
Mascot: Rams
Location: Kingston, RI

The Rams are dancing again for the first time since Lamar Odom and Luther Clay were in Kingston. They haven’t won a game since their Elite Eight run the year before with Cuttino Mobley and Odom.

This year’s incarnation is led by good defense. They played Duke within ten points, and beat Cincinnati back in November. E.C. Matthews leads the team in scoring, but Hassan Martin is the all-around best player.

On paper, this isn’t much of a game. Creighton is the superior team, but they lost their heart in Watson. That said, Rhode Island doesn’t have an answer for the 7’0″ Justin Patton.

Pick: Creighton

(3)Oregon(29-5) vs. (14)Iona(22-12):

Oregon:
Tournament record: 19-13
Tournament appearance:15th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Ducks
Location: Eugene, OR

The Ducks are in their fifth straight NCAA tournament, and they have won at least one game in all of those. This was looking like a team that was good enough to make a run until Chris Boucher went down. The Ducks, and the rest of the field, really don’t know what to expect without Boucher. They have only played one game, the Pac 12 final against Arizona, without him.

The other four starters besides Boucher all averaged double digit points per game, so the scoring shouldn’t suffer much. Jordan Bell averages over two blocks a game as well, so they still have a rim protector. A lot of people have opined that Oregon wont survive the first weekend without Boucher. They are still talented enough that they could.

Iona:
Tournament record: 1-11
Tournament appearance: 12th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Gaels
Location: New Rochelle, NY

The Gaels last (and first) won a NCAA tournament game all the way back in 1980 under Jim Valvano. This was later vacated by the NCAA, which leaves them as the only official team to have ten or more appearances and not win a game. It’s okay, Iona. We all know you did! As for “officially”, they lost to Ole Miss by two in 2001 and lost to Syracuse by two in 1998. They also suffered one point losses in back to back years, losing to Virginia in 1984 and Loyola(IL) in 1985. Is this the year they break though?

It could be. The Gaels are a very good shooting team from the outside, led by Jon Severe. Jordan Washington shoots 55% from the field, and is a force on the inside.

Iona shoots well enough to keep them in the game with Oregon, but the Ducks are a very good shooting team as well. Much as with Iowa State last year, the Gaels are going to be involved in a track meet where the first one to 90 wins.

Pick: Oregon

(7)Michigan(24-11) vs. (10)Oklahoma State(20-12):

Michigan:
Tournament record: 52-25
Tournament appearance: 27th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Wolverines
Location: Ann Arbor, MI

The Wolverines have not lost in the first round since 2012 when they were bounced by an Ohio team that went to the Sweet 16.

All five starters return from the team that lost to Notre Dame in the second round last year. The Wolverines were still trying to learn how to play without Caris LaVert last year. This year they have their own identity. This is a veteran team that plays well together.

Michigan finally seemed to hit their stride late, winning ten of their last 12 games with a win over Purdue and two wins over Wisconsin in that time. They are peaking at the right time, and are going to be a tough out.

Oklahoma State
Tournament record: 38-26
Tournament appearance: 28th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Cowboys
Location: Stillwater, OK

This is the fourth straight NCAA tournament berth for the Cowboys, but they have not made it out of the first round since 2009. That said, this is the best team they have had in that run. The Cowboys are eighth in the nation in points per game with 85.5. However, they are 302nd in points allowed (78.0).

Sophomore sensation Jawun Evans leads the high-flying Cowboys with 19 points per game, and shoots well from everywhere. Jeffrey Carroll and Phil Forte are also very capable shooters and scorers. The whole team hits 40% from outside, and they are a very good rebounding team.

The lack of an inside presence could hurt Oklahoma State here. They will try to run Michigan into the ground, and they could succeed. Ten players average 12 or more minutes per game. This is going to be a game of contrasting styles, but the fact that Michigan returns all starters from last year’s team makes them a favorite here. So I’m going to buck the trend.

Pick: Oklahoma State

(2)Louisville(24-8) vs. (15)Jacksonville State(20-14):

Louisville:
Tournament record: 75-42
Tournament appearance: 42nd
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Cardinals
Location: Louisville, KY

Louisville had a streak of eight straight tournament appearances snapped last year. This team is huge. The Austrailian towers of Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel are matchup nightmares. Quentin Snyder is a solid shooter from outside, but this team relies on defense. Donovan Mitchell leads the team in scoring and averages more than two steals per game.

If you want a dark horse team, Louisville is an interesting pick. That said, this offense is less than stellar, and if they go more cold than usual, this is a team that could be out before the weekend is over. If the old adage that defense wins championships is true, Louisville will be right in it.

Jacksonville State:
Tournament record: 0-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Gamecocks
Location: Jacksonville, FL

6’10” Norbertas Giga and 6’7″ Christian Cunningham are constant double-double threats in the middle. However, what flies in the OVC doesn’t always work in the NCAA tournament. Especially when they run into a group of monsters like Louisville. This is about as bad of a matchup as the Gamecocks could have drawn.

Pick: Louisville

Next: East Region Capsule

Since we all have to fill out our brackets all the way to the end before we turn them in, here are my picks for the Midwest.

First round winners: Kansas, Michigan State, Iowa State, Purdue, Creighton, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Louisville

Second round: Kansas, Iowa State, Oregon, Oklahoma State

Regional semifinal: Kansas, Oklahoma State

Winner: Kansas

Stay tuned for the picks from the rest of the regions and the round by round picks! We also have our daily NBA and NHL picks for you DFS players!