2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: South Region Predictions
By Mike Marteny
2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: South Region Predictions
We are on the eve of the 2017 NCAA basketball tournament! Millions of people wager billions of dollars on this annually. From the secretary at the office that chips in $5 for the pool and just picks the favorite mascots to the hardcore fans that play in Calcutta’s worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, there is something for everyone.
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Most of the hardcore aren’t out here scouring the internet in search of the little golden nugget of truth that no one else has overturned. They had their minds made up on Sunday night who their targets were.
However, for most of us average people, we mull over the brackets for a few hours trying to figure out what kind of upsets will happen and where.
Fair warning: I haven’t won a bracket pool in quite some time, but I am consistently in the top five or so. It just depends on the size and payout of your pool whether these will actually work or not. All we know is that one region will be completely destroyed, at least one 12 seed will win, a team from the play-ins will advance past the first round, and a one seed will lose in the first weekend. That’s just the beginning!
On to the South Region, and many people’s favorite to the whole thing!
(1)North Carolina(27-7) vs. (16)Texas Southern(23-11):
North Carolina:
Tournament record: 117-45
Tournament appearance: 48th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Tarheels
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
The Tarheels have a few lottery picks on their team as well. You could make a compelling argument for Justin Jackson being the best player in the tournament. Veterans Joel Berry and Kennedy Meeks also started the Championship game against Villanova last year. Nate Britt, Theo Pinson, and Isaiah Hicks all played in that game. This is a veteran team that has a great chance of returning to the Final Four.
Texas Southern:
Tournament record: 0-6
Tournament appearance: 7th
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Tigers
Location: Houston, TX
Can someone get the Tigers a play-in game, please? That would at least get them a shot at a NCAA tournament victory. Come on, Mount Saint Mary’s has two already! The Tigers are back in after a one year hiatus. However, no member of this year’s team saw game action against Arizona in 2015.
The loss of Derrick Griffin, who was averaging a double-double, ends any chance of the Tigers staying in this game. Zach Lofton will still be fun to watch, and Demontrae Jefferson will still get some points, but the Tigers are severely overmatched. If you are in a Calcutta, Texas Southern is a great candidate for worst loss.
Pick: North Carolina
(8)Arkansas(25-9) vs. (9)Seton Hall(21-11):
Arkansas:
Tournament record: 41-30
Tournament appearance: 31st
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Razorbacks
Location: Fayetteville, AR
Anton Beard has 13 minutes of tournament experience as a freshman in 2015. Moses Kingsley and Manuale Watkins also saw action in that game, but that is the extent of their tournament experience.
Arkansas is a very deep team. Eight players average at least 15 minutes per game. Four players average at least 12 points per game. Dusty Hannahs and Daryl Macon are both good shooters from outside. The play of Kingsley on the inside could decide this game though.
Seton Hall:
Tournament record: 15-10
Tournament appearance: 11th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Pirates
Location: South Orange, NJ
The Hall are dancing for the second straight year. Isaiah Whitehead is playing across the Hudson and East Rivers for the Nets now, but Khadeen Carrington, Ismael Sanogo, Desi Rodriguez, and Angel Delgado all return as starters from the team that lost to Gonzaga last year. This year’s team isn’t as deep as last year’s, but returning four starters and four others that played in last year’s game is a whole lot of returning minutes.
Carrington has increased all of his numbers except for free throw percentage, and has become the leader of this team. The Pirates were eaten alive by Wiljter and Sabonis in last year’s tournament. Arkansas has some size, but not near the skill of those two on the interior.
Arkansas will try to use their depth to wear out the Pirates. Will it work? I tend to think that Carrington is capable of taking over this game. Add that to Seton Hall’s tournament experience, and I give the Pirates a slight edge.
Pick: Seton Hall
(5)Minnesota(24-9) vs. (12)Middle Tennessee State(30-4):
Minnesota:
Tournament record: 13-12
Tournament appearance: 13th
Last appearance: 2013
Mascot: Golden Gophers
Location: Minneapolis, MN
The Gophers won just eight games last year. Eight. The Gophers have seven players that average 20 minutes or more this year. Led by guards Nate Mason and Amir Coffey, this team has some polished scorers. Jordan Murphy and Reggie Lynch wreak havoc on anything in the middle. Lynch averages 3.5 blocks per game this year. The Gophers are as good as any at protecting the rim.
Middle Tennessee State:
Tournament record: 3-8
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Blue Raiders
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
The Blue Raiders destroyed at least half of the brackets on the first afternoon last year, beating Michigan State 90-81 as a 15 seed! MTSU returns only two starters from that team, but one is the leading scorer from that game, Reggie Upshaw.
This year, JaCorey Williams and Giddy Potts led the way in scoring, but Upshaw is still the leading rebounder, thief, and rim protector on this team. This Blue Raider team runs a little deeper than last year’s. The five starters played at least 33 minutes in both tournament games last year, and just ran out of gas against Syracuse. They are better equipped to deal with two games in three days this year
If you want to be contrarian in this game, you have to pick the Gophers. A lot of pundits are picking this as the 12-5 upset, and I can see why. MTSU could be better than a team that ousted a really good Michigan State team last year. They are going against a team that won 16 more games this year than last. Who is the 12 seed again?
Pick: Middle Tennessee State
(4)Butler(23-8) vs. (13)Winthrop(26-6):
Butler:
Tournament record: 21-14
Tournament appearance: 25th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Bulldogs
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Butler is in it’s third straight NCAA tournament. They have not made it out of the round of 32 since their miracle 2011 run, but hey, they haven’t lost the first game either.
Andrew Chrabascz is still one of the better all-around players on any team, but Kelan Martin was arguably more important to Butler this year. With these two players, the Bulldogs can play with anyone. Tyler Wideman’s improved play in the middle make them a little better than they were last year. The emergence of Kamar Baldwin and Avery Woodson didn’t hurt either.
Winthrop:
Tournament record: 1-9
Tournament appearance: 10th
Last appearance: 2010
Mascot: Eagles
Location: Rock Hill, SC
Winthrop’s lone tournament win was over Notre Dame in 2007. They were an 11 seed that year, so they have a little more work in front of them this time.
5’8″ Keon Johnson makes the Eagles go. He averages 22.5 points and nearly four rebounds per game, while shooting 41% from three point range. The Eagles are a deep team, and they shoot pretty well (37%) from beyond the arc. That makes them capable of the upset.
Believe it or not, this is Butler’s highest NCAA tournament seed ever. They aren’t going to give it up without a fight. I see this as an entertaining game, but Butler is good enough to defend the exterior scoring of Winthrop. They are also big enough in the middle to make life difficult for Johnson. Winthrop stays close, but I still like Butler in a game that could be too close for comfort.
Pick: Butler
(6)Cincinnati(29-5) vs. (11)Kansas State(21-13)
Cincinnati
Tournament record: 44-29
Tournament appearance: 31st
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Bearcats
Location: Cincinnati, OH
The Bearcats are making their seventh straight tournament, but they have lost in the first round in three of the last four. They are going to have a hard time against a Kansas State team that looked pretty good on Tuesday.
Cincinnati is fourth in the NCAA in points allowed (60.5). They force a lot of turnovers and create a lot of open shots with good passing. They are much like Virginia was last year. A tough defensive team that could also score at will if they need to. The Bearcats are a little undersized, but Gary Clark plays bigger than he is.
Kansas State:
Tournament record: 33-32
Tournament appearance: 29th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Manhattan, KS
Kansas State is a tough team, but that doesn’t exactly make them good. They lack a skilled scorer, but they have four players that average between 11 and 12.5 points per game. If K-State finds themselves in need of someone to take over a game, I’m not sure they have it. Then again, they did beat Baylor twice this year, so they are capable of beating good teams.
So much for the good defense aspect of Kansas State. Wake hung 88 on them in the First Four, but Kansas State showed that they can play any kind of game. It’s going to be a physical one against Cincinnati.
Kansas State lost twice to an Iowa State team that Cincinnati beat back in November. Then again, they beat Baylor twice, with the second one propelling them into the tournament. Kansas State is a more tested team. Add that to Cincy’s recent history, and I smell another upset.
Pick: Kansas State
(3)UCLA(29-4) vs. (14)Kent State(22-13):
UCLA:
Tournament record: 103-40
Tournament appearance: 48th
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Bruins
Location: Los Angeles, CA
All of the Bruins’ losses were in conference. They lost to Oregon, USC, and Arizona twice. All of those teams made the field. They also beat then number one Kentucky by five in the preseason. This team is capable of hanging with anyone. They beat Oregon and Arizona in the conference season as well.
This team will go as Lonzo Ball goes. I honestly think that LaVar Ball is too much of a distraction right now because the media is just now paying attention to him. Can the Bruins and their star freshman handle it? The presence of Bryce Alford and TJ Leaf take a lot of the pressure off of Ball, but how he handles himself on this stage will determine whether UCLA flames out or cuts down the nets. They are that talented.
Kent State:
Tournament record: 4-5
Tournament appearance: 6th
Last appearance: 2008
Mascot: Golden Flashes
Location: Kent, OH
This is Kent’s first tournament berth in nine years. They have not won a game since 2002, when the Flashes, led by Antonio Gates (yes, that Antonio Gates) made a run to the Elite Eight.
Kent finished fourth in the MAC, but knocked off the top three seeds in three days to get their invite. Jimmy Hall averages a double-double. He has 22 of them, which is tied for fourth in the nation. Jaylin Walker and Deon Edwin also average double digit points.
Kent is a pretty deep team, but they don’t really do anything well. They don’t shoot well, which really decreases their chances of picking off a team that is far more talented than they are. If Kent gets hot, they could make it interesting, but the hallmark of UCLA this year has been that they don’t lose games they shouldn’t.
Pick: UCLA
(7)Dayton(24-7) vs. (10)Wichita State(30-4):
Dayton
Tournament record: 19-19
Tournament appearance: 18th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Flyers
Location: Dayton, OH
The Flyers are making their fourth straight NCAA tournament berth. They lost to a team on a mission in Syracuse in the first round last year, but in the previous two years, they went 5-2. Dayton has three players – Kendall Pollard, Kyle Davis, and the electric Scoochie Smith – that played in the Elite Eight game against Florida four years ago.
The Flyers are deep – they have ten players that average 12 or more minutes – experienced, and a dangerous team. For as good as Pollard is, and as great as Scoochie Smith and his name are, Charles Cooke is what makes them go. He averages a steal and a block per game, which is unusal at the college level. Can you imagine what this team would look like if Kostas Antetokounmpo, the little brother of the other-worldly Giannis Antetokounmpo, had not been forced to take an academic redshirt?
Wichita State
Tournament record: 17-14
Tournament appearance: 16-4th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Shockers
Location: Wichita, KS
The Shockers are in their sixth straight NCAA tournament. They have won at least one games in each of the last four, and have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last two years. They lost Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet to the NBA, but big men Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris return.
This team is a lot more balanced than the guard-dominated squads of the last few years. The guards are still what makes the team go, but Morris has become a solid scorer in his own right. The Shockers shoot an impressive 41% from distance and take care of the ball, which makes them a tough out for anyone. They also rebound well.
Dayton is a really good team with a really bad draw. Wichita State has not lost since January 14th. A win over either Louisville or Michigan State early on would have vaulted the Shockers up a few seeds. They still seem criminally underseeded here, which is unfortunate because I liked Dayton to make a run before I saw where they ended up.
Pick: Wichita State
(2)Kentucky(29-5) vs. (15)Northern Kentucky(24-10):
Kentucky
Tournament record: 123-50
Tournament appearance: 57th (most all time)
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Lexington, KY
This is the fourth straight NCAA tournament bid for Kentucky. They have won at least one game in all of them. They made the Final Four in four of five years from 2011-15. There is very little continuity for the Wildcats since this is the one-and-done capital of the NCAA universe right now.
Isaiah Briscoe is the only returning starter from last year, but Derek Willis also saw minutes in the loss to Indiana. The freshman trio of Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, and Edrice Adebayo joins Briscoe to make up the fourth most prolific scoring offense in all of college basketball.
One thing that may stand out to you about Kentucky this year is that they play fast. They get up and down the court at a much faster pace than usual, but they still don’t turn the ball over much. This is a really balanced that could make a deep run.
Northern Kentucky
Tournament record: 0-0
Tournament appearance: 1st
Last appearance: N/A
Mascot: Norse
Location: Highland Heights, KY
The Norse are a storied program in the Division II ranks, and are making their first appearance in the Big Dance. To celebrate, an upscale restaurant in Cincinnati is offering them all – players and staff – a free steak dinner if they can beat Kentucky. Good luck with that.
The best thing about this team is the mascot, Victor E. Viking. He definitely wins the best mascot award for this year’s tourney! As for the team, they are led by Drew McDonald and Lavone Holland. McDonald fared well against the smaller Horizon League schools, but now he has to tangle with Adebayo in the middle. This wont be much more than a tune-up for Kentucky.
Pick: Kentucky
Since we all have to fill out our brackets all the way to the end before we turn them in, here are my picks for the South. Man, is this bracket brutal!
First round winners: North Carolina, Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee State, Butler, Kansas State, UCLA, Wichita State, Kentucky
Second round: North Carolina, Butler, UCLA, Wichita State
Regional semifinal: North Carolina, UCLA
Winner: UCLA
Stay tuned for the picks from the rest of the regions and the round by round picks! We also have our daily NBA and NHL picks for you DFS players!