Fansided

Nylon Calculus: The curious case of Boogie and the Brow

By Senthil Natarajan

Mar 14, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward DeMarcus Cousins (0) and forward Anthony Davis (23) against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Trail Blazers 100-77. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 14, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward DeMarcus Cousins (0) and forward Anthony Davis (23) against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Trail Blazers 100-77. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’re now double-digit games into the start of the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins partnership in New Orleans, which means that reaction season is well underway. The Pelicans are 4-6 since the seismic trade, and save for the recent dismantling of Portland, seemed to have trouble putting together a complete game, often looking out of sync. This tweet from Tim Cato summed up most viewers’ frustrations and anxiousness about the new-look Pelicans thus far. The early returns have not looked good on the surface; that much is inarguable. But a deeper look paints a less pessimistic picture.

The place to begin is a common touchstone for the analytics community — 3-pointers and shot selection. The randomness and variance caused by 3-point percentage tends to cause many inferential fallacies and has even wreaked havoc on topics previously considered indisputable, like Kawhi Leonard’s defense, as covered by Justin Willard. Using NBAWowy, I compared some of the Pelicans’ numbers when Davis and Cousins both share the floor against the numbers when Davis is on but Cousins is off, to test the current theory that Cousins is limiting Davis.

The oddities aren’t hard to spot. When both Cousins and Davis share the floor, the Pelicans take 30.8 percent of their shots within three feet of the basket while also having a 3-point attempt rate of 33.2 percent. But when Davis is on without Cousins, both numbers dip. The Pelicans take only 24.6 percent of their shots within three feet of the basket, and their 3-point attempt rate falls to 25.6 percent. Their free throw attempt rate with both big men on the court, as expected, is 32.5 percent, in contrast to only 27.6 percent when Davis is alone. So the Pelicans’ shot selection profile actually improves with both Cousins and Davis sharing the floor. They are theoretically creating better looks and taking higher value shots, which is a good thing. High five!

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The trouble arises in the conversion of those shots. When Davis and Cousins both share the floor, the Pelicans are only converting their 3-pointers at a 27.4 percent clip, a figure that balloons to 37.3 percent when Davis is on but Cousins is off. And despite both Davis and Cousins being relatively good free throw shooters (both of them make over 76 percent on the season), the Pelicans convert only 74.2 percent of their free throws with both of them on the court, as opposed to 81.5 percent when Davis is alone. Of course, this disparity can partly be explained by the notion that substituting Cousins with a guard or wing should theoretically add a better free throw shooter to the floor; however, the only rotation player on the Pelicans even shooting over 80 percent on free throws this season is Solomon Hill, who only gets to the line 1.4 times a game. Worse yet, when both Cousins and Davis share the floor, the New Orleans only shoots 53.4 percent on shots within three feet of the rim, but makes 81.9 percent of those same shots if Davis is on the court without Cousins, an incredulously large disparity.

On the defensive side of the ball, they aren’t getting much luckier. Opponents take a similar proportion of their shots from beyond the arc regardless of which big is on the court (33.2 percent 3-point attempt rate with Cousins and Davis on, versus 34.5 percent when Davis is on but Cousins is off). Yet opponents have shot 34.3 percent from deep with both big men on the floor, versus only 27.5 percent without Cousins. Keeping in mind that 3-point defense is largely a function of 3-point attempt rate, over an entire season, this disparity in shooting percentages would be expected to normalize.

Now this isn’t to say that there aren’t real problems with the Pelicans, not by any stretch of the imagination. This is still a thin roster beyond the Davis-Cousins-Holiday triptych. E’Twaun Moore is the only role player who has offered even something resembling consistent production on offense. The team desperately needs better (or more consistent or both) shooters and a bench with more scoring punch. Post-ASG Jrue Holiday has not been on the same level as pre-ASG Jrue Holiday. Cousins’ effort still vacillates, especially on the defensive end.

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Ultimately however, to pin the Pelicans’ problems on the Fire and Ice partnership, while perhaps en vogue, is misguided. A closer look reveals that the brunt of the Pelicans’ problems are the same that they’ve always been, just exacerbated under a 10 game sample — inconsistency amongst the role players and shooting percentages that tend to muddle up any attempt at an objective evaluation.

Note: This post was written prior to the game against the Miami Heat on March 15, which the Pelicans lost, giving up 16-of-35 3-pointers in an eight-point game.

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