Eurocup Final Preview: Unicaja Malaga vs. Valencia

The European basketball season is finally winding down, and the first of the three major continental competitions is coming to a close with the Eurocup Final beginning next week. After a last-minute change to the competition structure caused the cup to adjust on the fly, the results turned out pretty well, with an interesting regular season and chaotic top 16, culminating in what’s been an entertaining playoffs.

The competition was a melting pot of some of Europe’s most underrated talents. There were the headliners, sure, as former NBA veterans like Amar’e Stoudemire and Alexey Shved led the charge for some of Eurocup’s best clubs. But we also saw the blossoming of Facundo Campazzo at UCAM Murcia. Anzejs Pasecniks rose into first round NBA Draft consideration with a strong showing for Gran Canaria. Players like Rolands Smits of Fuenlabrada and Dejan Musli of Unicaja Malaga broke out as potential Euroleague stars of the future, while short stints from Pierre Jackson at Cedevita and Alex Renfroe at Bayern Munich earned them pay days from the Dallas Mavericks (via the D-League) and Barcelona, respectively. This was a tenuous year for Eurocup because of the emergence of the FIBA Champions League and the problems that posed, but the response was one that is encouraging for the competition moving forward.

Now, we’re down to the final, and it’s an all-Spanish battle. Valencia and Malaga will duel for a spot in Euroleague in 2017-2018. Malaga shocked Lokomotiv Kuban with a sweep in the semifinals, and Valencia knocked off Stoudemire’s Hapoel Jerusalem in three games. These are two of Europe’s scrappier teams, overcoming a lack of truly elite talent with excellent depth and brilliant coaching. Valencia has been a consistently excellent team on the interior, as one of the best rebounding squads. Meanwhile, Malaga has been anything but consistent, riding a rudimentary ISO-ball offense that relies on outbursts from any of their number of streaky scorers. When they’re hot, they’re unbeatable, but when cold, they look pretty weak. Can they continue to ride their good fortune of the last month? Or will Valencia’s size and veteran stability lead them back to Euroleague for just the fourth season in their history?

Game Dates:

Game 1 – March 28, Malaga @ Valencia 3:30PM Eastern

Game 2 – March 31, Valencia @ Malaga 4:00PM Eastern

Game 3 (if needed) – April 5, Malaga @ Valencia 3:30PM Eastern

How to Watch

The best way is to nab a Euroleague.tv subscription, which will have every game live online. The monthly pass is the best bet. Otherwise, you can take a chance with a YouTube live stream, or follow along on Twitter.

Previous Meetings

Valencia beat Unicaja 91-83 in ACB play on Dec. 10, as guard Rafa Martinez hit six 3-pointers to fuel a fourth quarter comeback. Adding to the drama, the two teams faced off this past Saturday in ACB play. Valencia took a close contest 81-77, with Bojan Dubljevic leading the team with 20 points and 8 rebounds.

Key Matchup – Dejan Musli vs. Bojan Dubljevic

Unicaja and Valencia both feature quality offensive bigs from the Balkans, and the 26-year old Serbian Musli will spend plenty of time dueling with the Montenegrin Dubljevic. Musli averages 11.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game, and is an excellent finisher, shooting 66.4 percent from the field. He was key in Malaga’s quarterfinal win over Bayern Munich, averaging 15.3 points per game and taking advantage of Bayern’s lack of perimeter-defending bigs. His size (7-foot, 240) as a pick-and-roll finisher can be a problem at the Eurocup level.

Dubljevic, meanwhile, is more perimeter-oriented, and should create significant problems by making Musli defend in space. The Timberwolves draft-and-stash is a threat out to the 3-point line (29.5 percent on 44 attempts), is a capable passer, and can put the ball on the deck against bigs. He’s also 242 pounds, so it’s hard to put smaller forwards on him consistently out of fear of him eating you alive on the glass. These two should get plenty of time matched up against each other, and defense will be the difference. How Dubljevic deals with Musli’s length, and how competently Malaga can defend Dubljevic away from the basket, could swing the series.

Valencia X-Factor – Fernando San Emeterio

Antoine Diot is the ultimate X-factor, as the 6-foot-7 French national team member is uncertain for the series due to injury. Having him would be huge, as he’s one of the competition’s better one-on-one defenders, and would be vital for shutting down Malaga’s perimeter scorers. Without him, San Emeterio could be the X-Factor. The 33-year old veteran small forward was huge against Hapoel, leading them in scoring with 21 points in Game 1 and shooting 68/50/83 on the series. San Emeterio is a streaky 3-point shooter, but when on, he’s a big weapon, as he is very crafty at using screens and ball movement to get open. He offers strong leadership on the floor, and rarely makes mistakes defensively. That’s going to be key in this series, as he’ll spend time on guys with widely varying skill sets — 3-point ace Adam Waczynski, probing wing scorer Nemanja Nedovic, or one-on-one maestro Daniel Diez. Valencia’s going to ask a lot of the former Baskonia All-Euroleague player. Can he come through one more time?

Unicaja Malaga X-Factor – Pick a guard, any guard

Unicaja’s X-Factor is that they’re a team full of X-Factors. Outside of Musli inside and Jeff Brooks as their garbage man four, Malaga has seemed to ride a different player every week offensively. Any of them could kill you or disappear at any time, even within the same game. This makes them the dangerous wounded animal in the fight, because they’re very quick to ride whoever’s hot, and it’s up to the defense to recognize and react. One game, it could be former Arizona guard Kyle Fogg, who killed Loko in the semifinals and is a brilliant isolation scorer. The next, it could be Nedovic, a former Warriors guard who acts as an oversized pick-and-roll point man. Or Jamar Smith could take over against your second unit. And all the while you have to worry about two 45 percent 3-point marksmen spacing the floor in Waczynski and Diez. None is consistently effective, but at their peak, any of these guys could heat up and kill you. That’s been the formula so far, and easily could be again.

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Prediction

Overall, Valencia has been the stronger team this year. They have gone 17-3 through the entire competition, and only one of those, in the second game of the season, was at home. Even without Diot, they have some of the best defensive guards in the competition, and even without the injured Slava Kravtsov, they have a cavalry of massive centers that Unicaja is going to struggle to deal with. Valencia dominates the glass, and Unicaja hasn’t proven they can consistently deal with that. Their only hope will be what got them wins in the last two rounds — random outbursts from the guards on offense, coupled with scrappy defense and fast starts. That might win them one game, but I have Valencia’s home court and size advantages putting them in Euroleague next year.