A look at the 2017 season preview for the New York Mets.
The New York Mets are looking to build off a solid 2016 season. This saw them finish second in the National League East and earn the top Wild Card spot. However, they lost to the San Francisco Giants and were sent home early in the playoffs.
Now, the Mets will try to overcome the Wild Card loss by going through the 2017 regular season. They have a similar team returning, so expectations will be high in Queens. Can they live up to these and take another step forward?
Pitching
Pitching for the Mets has been a strong suit for the past few years. It contributed to their 2015 World Series run and helped them through 2016, leading to a Wild Card berth.
Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom should have the top four rotation spots locked down. They’re still some of the most talented young starters in the game, even though they’ve built up a few years in the big leagues. All four should be able to lead the Mets from the mound in 2017 and intimidate the opposition.
However, injuries have been a concern. deGrom, Harvey, Matz and Syndergaard all dealt with arm-related ailments in 2016. Most specifically, Harvey had a down season with an ERA that nearly touched 5.00 and a WAR of just 0.1. It ended up being due to a thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis just 17 stats into the year. Harvey was once the leading man in this rotation, so will health be on his side in 2017 to keep him on the mound?
When the Dark Knight was hurt in 2016, Bartolo Colon admirably filled in and provided a steady piece to the rotation. He’s no longer with the team, though, having signed with the Atlanta Braves just days into free agency. That leaves the No. 5 rotation spot open for a few interesting names.
Robert Gsellman may have the best chance of being behind the first four. He excelled in his taste of MLB experience in 2016, posting a 2.42 ERA through eight starts. Seth Lugo isn’t far behind either, but could be bound for Triple-A Las Vegas.
Zack Wheeler is also back after missing nearly two years, due to Tommy John surgery. He’ll have to fight his way into the rotation, potentially sometime in the first few months of the season. If Gsellman performs well and no one gets hurt, then it may be an uphill battle for him.
The Mets’ rotation looks like it’s ready to contend again, though. There are some questions, but if these pitchers can get luckier with their health in 2017, they’ll help the Mets target the Washington Nationals.
Lineup
The Mets can look like one of the best hitting teams in the MLB, or struggle to make any sort of contact with the baseball. It comes from the all-or-nothing approach for a handful of their players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda and Nail Walker. All of them are back in 2017, along with Travis d’Arnaud, Jose Reyes, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Having this consistent stable of players returning could be a good thing, even though they had their issues.
It looked like the Mets were going to trade Bruce in the offseason, but nothing ever materialized. He only hit .219 in 50 games with the team, never reaching the lofty expectations he had upon arrival at the MLB Trade Deadline. So there may be pressure on him to produce from Opening Day and on, especially with Michael Conforto waiting to take everyday at-bats.
d’Arnaud is potentially entering a critical year for his growth, too. He’s dealt with injuries in every season in the MLB, including only playing in 142 games over the past two seasons. The 2016 campaign saw him play in just 75 games, hitting .247 with four home runs and 15 RBIs. Even though Kevin Plawecki hasn’t set the world on fire behind him, the Mets could still search for d’Arnaud replacement if he struggles during the year.
Other than the question marks, there’s still the power bat of Cespedes to look forward to. He re-signed with the Mets for another four years, and will remain in the heart of their lineup. Expect another quality season out of him with 25-35 home runs and being a run-producing force.
To compete, this lineup will need to get over some of the struggles that plagued them in 2016. Other need to step up too.
Bullpen
The backend of the bullpen became a strong suit for the Mets in 2016 with Jeurys Familia closing and Addison Reed setting him up. Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas also provided quality options in middle relief to help bridge the gap.
While most of the bullpen will look the same, the status of Familia is in about. He was under investigation for domestic violence, which will warrant a suspension, if this is being compared to Aroldis Chapman’s from 2016. That may mean Familia misses the first 20-30 games of the season.
Stepping in would be Reed, who performed admirably in the eighth inning role. Last year, he posted a 1.97 ERA through 77.2 innings and had a strikeouts per nine innings rate of 10.5. He could fill the gap and, if good enough, may be able to usurp Familia in the closer’s role.
Like the lineup and starting pitchers, the bullpen mostly looks the same, and should provide quality results again.
Manager
Terry Collins is returning for his seventh year as manager of the New York Mets. He’s entering with a 481-491 record, not including the 2015 World Series appearance and Wild Card spot in 2016.
Collins had been on the hot seat two years ago, but his job status shouldn’t be one to worry about this year. That’s unless the Mets tailspin to a point of no return and finish in last in the NL East.
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This doesn’t mean expectations won’t be high, though. As noted, the Mets are returning pretty much a similar cast to their 2016 team. They’ll hopefully have full years out of Harvey, d’Arnaud, Duda, and get a full year’s worth of production out of Bruce. If they can add to what’s already in place, then this team should be one to be fearful of in the National League.
X-Factor
His name has been mentioned a few times already, but Jay Bruce has the potential to be the Mets’ x-factor in the 2017 season. If anything, it’s all based on if he can hit more than .219.
Bruce has never been the greatest contact hitter and isn’t notorious for getting on base at a high clip. He hasn’t posted an On Base Percentage higher than .329 since 2011; it has also been below .300 in two of the past four years. He actually didn’t have a great season in 2014 and 2015 with the Reds either and batted almost on par to those numbers in his handful of games with the Mets.
A full offseason and spring training with the Mets could benefit Bruce. He’s had months to get adjusted and acclimated, instead of being thrown into the fire last August. Nerves could be settled down and lead to him feeling more relaxed in the batter’s box, not trying to overdo it.
If Bruce can put up his 2013 numbers (30 home runs, 109 RBIs, .807 OPS), then he’ll make it difficult for opposing pitchers to go against a core of him, Cespedes, a potentially-healthy Duda, and Walker. All of them guys can mash the ball, but Bruce has arguably shown the most power out of any of them in their respective careers. If he can slug and hit for a moderate average, then he’ll be a terrific piece for the lineup.
Prediction
In 2016, the Mets were good enough to take the first Wild Card spot in the National League. This is while the Nationals had a comfortable eight-game lead in their division.
With all the pieces coming back for the Mets, they have an opportunity to win the NL East. It depends on getting healthy and consistent seasons from all of their young pitchers, who will be relied on heavily when the lineup fails to produce.
Hitting will make or break this team, though. There were points, where they looked dominant and could mash 3-5 home runs per game on any given night. Other times, it was full of strikeouts and nights of putting up just four hits or zero runs. That same lineup is back, so there’s a chance 2016’s production gets replicated, albeit with Duda’s return, who is just as hit-or-miss as Cespedes, Bruce, Walker, and others.
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Another Wild Card finish seems fair for the Mets. They’ll contend with the Nationals throughout the year, but the D.C. team has the ability to be the more consistent hitting team, and that may be a deciding factor. We’ll say the Mets finish 89-73 and take the first Wild Card spot.