Nylon Calculus: Was Jusuf Nurkic always this good?
By Ian Levy
Jusuf Nurkic has been kind of a hot tamale lately. Before he was traded to the Trail Blazers in the middle of February, Nurkic had mostly fallen out of the Nuggets’ rotation. Portland was struggling as well — a 23-32 record and a -2.1 point differential. Since the trade, Nurkic has been ferocious — averaging 15.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game and helping the Blazers go 13-7 with a +4.0 differential.
Something appears to have changed for Nurkic since arriving in Portland. He’s playing looser and more confidently and providing tremendous value to his new team, going from an afterthought in Denver to looking like a franchise cornerstone for the Blazers. However, functionally, his numbers aren’t actually that different.
Although Nurkic’s per game averages are nearly twice what they were for the Nuggets this season, that’s mostly because he’s playing nearly twice as many minutes per game. He’s been better from the free throw line but his shooting from the field has been roughly the same. The three pieces of Nurkic’s statistical improvement we can really separate from the simple fact that he’s playing more minutes are the free throw shooting, his increased block percentage, and his increased assist numbers.
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The surge in his free throw percentage — 65.6 percent in Portland, 49.6 percent in Denver — is probably a lot of noise. His career free throw percentage before this season was 62.8 percent the improvement here is mostly because he was dramatically underperforming in this area with the Nuggets earlier in the season. The assists and the rim protection may be more because of the change in role and context between Portland and Denver, and thus might be more stable.
The amount of offense, per minute, that Nurkic is creating as a passer and screener has grown substantially in Portland.
Portland’s offense revolves around the dribble penetration and shooting of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both players are more effective penetrators and more dangerous outside threats than really anyone Nurkic played with in Denver. The Blazers’ offense often keeps their bigs around the elbows, clearing space at the rim for drives and giving a hub from which the ball can be dropped off to cutters or kicked out to shooters behind the 3-point line.
In Denver, Nurkic played much more with his back to the basket. In Portland, he’s been out in the middle of the floor more, finding open teammates from the elbow and setting screens to free Lillard and McCollum.
Nurkic is getting more elbow touches per 36 minutes and they make up a much larger share of his overall halfcourt touches. There has been a corresponding drop in his post touches. More time in the middle of the floor means more opportunities to display the versatility in his offensive game. Where and how often the Blazers are putting the ball in Nurkic’s hands is important but so are the players around him.
In Denver, seven different players attempted at least 10 shots after receiving a pass from Nurkic. Combined, those seven players had an effective field goal percentage of 49.6 on those shots and only one — Wilson Chandler — had an individual effective field goal percentage above 55. Six Trail Blazers have attempted at least 10 shots after receiving a pass from Nurkic. Five of those six players have an effective field goal percentage above 55 percent on those shots, and the group average is 54.5 percent.
Better shooters and a different pattern of usage help explain the increase in his offensive creation. The explanation for his increased defensive impact around the rim is similar. Whether by design or simple function of the teams they have played, Nurkic has been able to anchor himself in the paint more consistently in Portland’s defense.
In Portland, I estimated that Nurkic is traveling about three fewer feet per defensive possession. That drop, from 79.9 feet to 76.4 feet may not seem like a lot but remember that the distance required to change ends of the floor from free throw line to free throw line is roughly 56 feet. If we assume that distance is fairly static then a reduction of three feet means Nurkic is moving about 15 percent less per defensive possession after he’s moved from one end of the floor to the other.
We can also see that Nurkic is contesting about two extra shots per 36 minutes in the restricted area and he has been much more effective at holding down the opponent’s efficiency on those shots. Nurkic’s defensive field goal percentage around the basket was an impressive 48.4 as a rookie and a bloated 58.6 in his injury-shortened season last year. As such, it seems his number here in Portland may be closer to his true ability level.
Nurkic had a fantastic rookie season in Denver and what we’re seeing now is the realization of the potential he was hinting at in 2014-15. However, this midseason leap is as much more about changing teams (and perhaps mindsets) then it is about skill development. As Nurkic struggled through injuries last year, Jokic took his place as the franchise cornerstone. Early this season the two were playing together in a tandem with far too much overlap. The friction between their games hurt the team and the challenge clearly didn’t bring out the best in Nurkic.
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Fundamentally, Nurkic has not been a different player in Portland. However, the interconnected web of positive reinforcement, being mentally engaged, and offered more opportunities is paying huge dividends.