Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Outlook
The Chargers organization has gone through plenty of changes since the end of the 2016 season. Including moving from the City it called home for 50+ seasons, to an all new coaching regime, but what can we expect from a fantasy standpoint in 2017?
Melvin Gordon
2016 Recap: Flash Gordon bounced back in 2016 after a very disappointing 2015 rookie campaign with the Chargers. Many labeled him a bust after only rushing for 641 yards and failing to score a single touchdown in 2015. Fumbles were also an issue for the rookie, coughing up the rock 5 times.
Gordon’s 2016 season was night and day different, showing many doubters exactly why he was drafted in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft. Melvin Gordon roared back to the tune of 1,416 total yards, 12 touchdowns, and the 7th most fantasy points among running backs in PPR formats in just 13 games.
2017 Outlook: Melvin Gordon may end up being the biggest beneficiary of the new coaching staff for the L.A. Chargers. New head coach, Anthony Lynn, brings a history of team rushing success with him to L.A.. Lynn spent the last two seasons with the Buffalo Bills. In 2015 Lynn served as the teams assistant head coach/running back coach. In 2016, Lynn was promoted to offensive coordinator after Greg Roman was fired. The Bills ranked 1st in the NFL in team rushing in both of those seasons.
Look for Lynn to get the most out of Melvin Gordon with his ground and pound philosophy. The departure of Danny Woodhead should also benefit Melvin Gordon owners, leading to more 3rd down work for Gordon in the 2017. A top-5 fantasy running back finish is well in reach for Gordon.
Philip Rivers
2016 Recap: Philip Rivers did not produce the fantasy results those that drafted him were hoping for, finishing as the 13th ranked fantasy quarterback last season. Season ending injuries to two of the teams’ starting receivers (Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson) did not help his cause. Even with these setbacks Rivers managed to record 4,386 yards (ranked 5th among QBs) and 33 touchdowns (ranked 4th among QBs).
So why didn’t he have a better fantasy finish among QBs? Interceptions. Rivers led the NFL with a career high 21 interceptions which accounted for -42 fantasy points if you play in a -2 point per interception scoring system. Let’s say for the sake of argument that he had thrown 14 interceptions (his average per season since 2006). That point differential would have ranked him as the 8th best fantasy quarterback in 2016.
2017 Outlook: Philip Rivers will have a familiar face in offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Whisenhunt was also the OC for the Chargers in 2016 and 2013. The Chargers posted top 8 passing offenses in both seasons with Ken Whisenhunt calling the plays. The track record and familiarity of the Rivers/Whisenhunt combination will provide a high floor for Philip Rivers in 2017
Durability and consistency should always play a big role in deciding who you want to draft for your fantasy team. Rivers checks both of those boxes, having not missed a game in his 11 years as the Chargers starting quarterback and throwing for 4,000+ yards in 8 of the last 9 seasons.
Rivers will also look to have his #1 wide receiver back in Keenan Allen, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the first game of the 2016 season. Allen has proven to be an elite talent when he can stay healthy and gives the Bolts the true #1 wide receiver they were missing last season.
Keenan Allen
2016 Recap: Not much to say here. Allen suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the first half of the Chargers season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. Hopes were high for Allen who returned to action after suffering a lacerated kidney in week eight of the 2015 season which ended his season.
2017 Outlook: Drafting Keenan Allen relatively high this year will carry valid injury concerns based on the past two seasons, but if you are a Keenan Allen truther like me it is worth the risk. Allen was on pace to finish the 2015 season with 134 receptions, 1,450 yards, and 8 touchdowns based on the 8 games he played in before getting injured.
This goes to show the upside he comes with if he can stay healthy. If Allen can manage to stay healthy for all or at least the majority of the season he carries top-5 fantasy wide receiver upside in 2017.
Tyrell Williams
2016 Recap: Tyrell Williams had a break-out season in 2016 that very few predicted. Williams stepped up for the Chargers in a big way when others went down to injuries, racking up 69 receptions, 1,059 yards, and finding the end-zone seven times. The 6-4, 205 pound receiver proved to have a rare combination of size and speed on his way to a top-15 finish among receivers in standard leagues and a top-20 finish in PPR leagues.
2017 Outlook: Although his production may have been aided by injuries to guys in front of him, you can’t deny the talent the 25 year-old Williams processes. However it’s a safe bet that Williams fails to duplicate his 2016 production based on how many other mouths there are to feed in L.A.
Keenan Allen will be a target monster as long as he is on the field. The chances that Williams sees the same amount of targets as he did in 2016 (119) are not high. Williams carries WR2/flex value but he is not someone I will be reaching for in drafts, simply because of the injury concerns of Allen.
Travis Benjamin
2016 Recap: Benjamin did not have the career that many projected in his first year as a Charger, hauling in 47 targets for 677 yards and scoring four touchdowns in 14 games. There may be more behind why he didn’t perform the way many hoped for. Benjamin undergoing surgery after the season on his right knee may lend hope for a bounce back season.
2017 Outlook: Finishing outside the top-55 wideouts (PPR) in 2016 may result in Benjamin being overlooked by many. If in fact his 2016 production was hampered by a PCL injury Benjamin could be a good value pick in this years fantasy drafts.
He showed exactly what he is capable of in 2015 with a Cleveland team that didn’t exactly have a great quarterback. Benjamin hauled in 66 receptions for 966 yards and five touchdowns. He is a deep threat that will help those around him by stretching the field. If Benjamin falls in your drafts, he is worth a flier.
Hunter Henry & Antonio Gates
2016 Recap: The Chargers were the only offense that produced two- top 20 PPR fantasy tight ends last season. Although Gates saw 40 more targets than the rookie Henry, both had very similar production.
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Gates finished with 70 more receiving yards than Henry (548 to 478), while Henry finished with one more touchdown than the future Hall of Famer (8 to 7). That’s a combined 1,026 yards and 15 touchdowns.
2017 Outlook: The tight end to own moving forward in L.A. is Hunter Henry. He showed flashes of why he was drafted with the #35 overall pick in the 2016 draft. It also doesn’t hurt that he is learning from one of the best to ever play the position in Gates.
While both players have around the same floor, Henry has the higher upside which is what you look for if you like to draft tight ends in the later rounds. The Chargers used a two tight end formation only 11% of the time last season, so how the Chargers use both guys will be key.
With that being said, each will likely eat into one another’s production, either way both have the high floors you look for in fantasy.
Summary
The last time the Chargers didn’t finish in the top ten in passing offense was in 2012. With Rivers at the helm look for that trend to continue in 2017. The addition of Anthony Lynn points to an improved running game that finished ranked 26th last season in team rushing. Don’t hesitate to draft these guys if the price is right in your leagues this season.
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your fantasy football needs as we head towards another NFL season!