Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early slate which kicks off at 12:35 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Over the first four slates of the year, it has taken 213.6, 246.7, 196.2 and 240.3 FanDuel points in order to take down a GPP! Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Wednesday’s Picks and Pivots lineup landed above the cash line for the third straight day as Jacob deGrom delivered 40 FD points while two of our punt plays, Chris Owings (33.7) and J.T. Realmuto (31.4) delivered far beyond their minimum price points! As you can see over the first four days there is significant variance in the winning scores so while it is important to use these data points you must also understand the significant variability in MLB DFS which makes it ideal for GPP play!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Starting Pitcher Picks
John Lackey ($8,700) Looking over the Early Slate on FanDuel for Thursday we are met with a variety of potential weather situations including Boston-Pittsburgh which looks like the most likely to be impacted, thus turning a 6 six game slate into a five game slate.
The pitching options are lackluster across the board so I think the prudent move is to pay “up” for the highest priced arm on the slate in John Lackey who gets to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Lackey is the largest favorite on the early slate and looks to be one of the safest options at a fairly reasonable price pint.
Last season against St. Louis, Lackey pitched to a 2.03 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .200 BAA while striking out 31 batters in 26 innings pitched. As Matt Rogers pointed out in his daily FanDuel MLB Pitching Focus, Lackey averaged 35.9 FanDuel points last season which is by far the highest on the slate and with the Cubs offense facing a pitcher making his first start since having Tommy John surgery, I would expect Lackey to get plenty of run support today!
Typically I would look to give a pivot option but I honestly do not feel confident recommending any other SP on this slate. First, the price difference is not material enough for me to feel the need to drop down from Lackey to guys priced in the $7k range. Second, the weather across the Early slate is very dicey with 15-25 MPH wind gusts blowing out in many of these stadiums which could result in some big time crooked numbers for some already sketchy SP options. Lackey may not be the sexiest name but he is the safest play on the board and has the clear ability to be the highest scoring option on the slate at a reasonable price point – I simply see no reason to fade.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Detroit Tigers versus James Shields: Oh baby – welcome back into our DFS lives James Shields! If you are new to MLB DFS, Shields is one of the best pitchers to stack against as his propensity to deliver blow up outings makes him an ideal GPP target!
Take a look at Shields numbers from last season where he gave up a whopping 2.3 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, 2.1 HR/9 at home and a massive 40% hard contact right to RHB. The Tigers key bats, Miguel Cabrera ($4,000), Ian Kinsler ($3,400) and Victor Martinez ($2,900) form an elite stack against Shields and this is an instance where the BvP (Batter Versus Pitcher) even further supports targeting these guys.
Miggy is 24 for 64 (.375 average) with 10 doubles, 3 home runs and a .672 slugging percentage in his career against Shields which is by far the best numbers any Tigers hitter has against Shields. Kinsler is 16/61 (.262 average) with 4 home runs while Martinez is 16 for 53 (.302 average) with 4 doubles and one home run!
Colorado Rockies against Chase Anderson: The Rockies are back on my radar as a top team to target and it is clear I am not alone as Matt Rogers has pointed out that Chase Anderson is the top pitcher to fade and target hitters against today!
Anderson in many ways is similar to Wednesday’s starter, Willy Peralta has he has an inflated home run rate to hitters from both sides of the plate and gives up a ton of hard contact! Anderson actually exhibits some reverse splits where his numbers are actually more favorable to right-handed hitters which puts Nolan Arenado ($4,200) and Trevor Story ($3,800) firmly in play as part of a Rockies stack.
Last year Anderson gave up 1.9 HR/9 to right-handed hitters with a 40% hard contact rate which were both significantly higher than his numbers to lefties so stacking the right-handed power here may actually be a bit contrarian as people look to stack more traditionally with Lefty/Righty match-ups. That being said, I am going back to the well on Carlos Gonzalez at $3,600 as the price tag is simply too cheap and the upside is immense!
FanDuel MLB – Top FanDuel GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: John Lackey ($8,700)
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C: Victor Martinez ($2,900)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($4,000)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,400)
3B: Nolan Arenado ($4,200)
SS: Trevor Story ($3,800)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,600)
OF: Tyler Collins ($2,000) Justin Upton may miss this game due to injury which could result in a start for Collins at minimum price and a nice addition to a Detroit stack!
OF: Max Kepler ($2,400) Kepler is batting in the top of the Twins order which gives him some daily intrigue due to his prime hitting position behind Brian Dozier and ahead of Byron Buxton/Miguel Sano.
Slate Overview: Watch the weather and be ready to react first and foremost! With a few very sketchy spots be prepared to adjust as we lead to lock if news breaks that some of these games will be postponed! Outside of that – keep it simple – lock in John Lackey in all formats, stack around the Tigers and Rockies bats and utilize the last 2 OF spots to mix and match guys in favorable line-up spots once we get Thursday’s rosters!
Next: FanDuel MLB Daily Pitching Breakdown
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!