DraftKings Early MLB Picks For April 11

There are only two early games today, and one of them has a rain threat. If the game is rained out, this early slate will be abandoned. If you play the all day slate, you can still remove up until game time with the late swap.

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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

With only four pitchers to choose from, we really have to guess right on hitters. I’m not sure any of these are great options, but that’s what the past stats are for. Who do the stats say are the best option? Let’s take a look!
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Next: DraftKings MLB Lineup April 11

P: Hector Santiago ($7,300): Honestly, all four options don’t just have bad histories against today’s opponents, they have horrible ones! Carlos Carrasco has given up 25 runs to the White Sox in just 112 at bats! My approach is chasing strikeouts, and there is no way I’m paying up for Carrasco. Matt Boyd may seem the better option, but he got roughed up in his first start. Santiago has better upside, and if you take the stats of J.D. Martinez out, the Tigers are only hitting .211 with five homers and 15 RBI in 133 at bats with 34 strikeouts. That is still good strikeout potential, and, well, he looked much better than Boyd the first time out this year.

P: James Shields ($6,400): There is no way Shields can be as bad as he was last year, right? He was very good in the opener. I’m looking for that to carry over. The current White Sox are hitting .263 against Shields in 213 at bats, but the 22 runs allowed is easily the best ratio of the afternoon. So is the 57 strikeouts.

C: James McCann ($3,000): If McCann doesn’t start, I will go with Chris Gimenez if he starts for Minnesota. Detroit also played a day game yesterday, so I’m thinking McCann will be good to go. He is 3-12 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Hector Santiago.

1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($5,200): Edwin is worth the premium here. Though he is only 8-32 against James Shields, he has two walks, a double, three homers, and five RBI against him. A couple of other Cleveland players seem like nice options, but none have hit Shields as hard as Encarnacion has.

2B: Brian Dozier ($4,700): Dozier is 5-14(.357) with a double, a walk, and a solo homer against Matt Boyd in his career. Dozier hits lefties hard, so there is reason to expect plenty of positive numbers here today.

3B: Jorge Polanco ($3,400): Polanco is 4-9 with a double, a homer, and four RBI in his career against Matt Boyd. He is also off to a great start this year, hitting .389 with a homer and four RBI. If Polanco is in the lineup, you really can’t go wrong here.

SS: Tim Anderson ($4,500): Francisco Lindor is 2-2 with a pair of singles against Shields if you want to go that route, but Anderson has six hits in ten tries against Carrasco already! He has a double, a homer, and three RBI in those six hits.

OF: Melky Cabrera ($4,800): Melky is 9-26(.346) with three walks, a double, two homers, and a whopping eight RBI against Carlos Carrasco already. If you are looking to go cheaper since you paid up for Carrasco, and don’t mind using someone against him, Avisail Garcia has also taken Carrasco deep.

OF: Michael Brantley ($5,200): Brantley is 11-33 with a walk, two doubles, and four RBI against James Shields. Once you get to the outfield, there aren’t a whole lot of everyday players with huge numbers against the opposing pitchers today. I will pay up based on talent as opposed to looking for Robbie Grossman or Austin Jackson to get me another homer.

OF: Justin Upton ($4,400): Upton is 3-10 with two walks, a homer, and four RBI against Hector Santiago, but he was scratched from yesterday’s game with back tightness. If he can’t go, the best options become Jose Ramirez and Miguel Sano, though Sano is 1-8 with five strikeouts against Matt Boyd.

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our NBA, NHL, and EPL picks!