DraftKings RBC Heritage DFS Preview

After an eventful Masters, the tour will head to Hilton Head, South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage. Harbor Town Golf Links, the host and Pete Dye course, will play at 7101 yards and a par 71. This is a much shorter track that rewards golfers that can be accurate off of the tee and manage to find fairly small greens. Like last week at the Masters, wind will play a factor, given the course’s exposure to the water.

As always, I’ll be taking a multitude of statistical factors into account, such as: driving distance, driving accuracy, GIR, ADJ. RD. Score, birdie scoring, current form, course history, and Vegas odds. While we typically look to roster golfers who have more opportunities at birdies or better, this course tend to rewards those who are more accurate and can avoid bogies. I’ll be weighting current form, bogey avoidance, ADJ. RD. Score, and Vegas odds, the most.

It’s been reported that last week’s Masters, at least on DraftKings, was a rousing success. With new players in the market, we could see a trickle down of soft players trying their hand again, after winning on Masters week. Keep in mind, this could inflate ownership on the “household” name players, in a week with a very depleted field.

I’ll be trying something new this week in my write up below. Instead of breaking down golfers by price tiers, I’ll be picking out a few key stats and identifying which golfers stand out in that specific area. I’m hoping this will allow you to make your own decision on which piece of evidence you deem the most important and therefore find golfers that match your theory.

Current Form:

Russell Henley – $10,700 (DraftKings RBC Heritage)

Russell Henley is trending in the right direction, coming off of an 11th place finish at the Masters. Before that, he picked up a win at the Houston Open. Henley has been very reliable this year, with only one missed cut, which was back in January. Henley can struggle to score well on DraftKings at times, due to his low birdie making, but as I mentioned earlier, this course can reward golfers who can avoid blow ups. Henley has averaged 7.3 course and field adjusted bogies per tournament this year, one of the best scores in the current field.

Others players in good form: Hadwin, Kisner, Leishman (beware of lingering back injury), Brandt Snedeker (beware of lingering hand injury), Kaymer, Fitzpatrick, Stanley, Campos, Dufner, Perez, Glover, Cink

Vegas Odds vs. DraftKings RBC Heritage Price:

Luke Donald – $7,800 (DraftKings RBC Heritage)

Luke Donald stands out as one of DraftKings’ mispricings when comparing his price to his Vegas projection. Donald currently has an implied chance to win of 2.9%, which is much better than anyone else in this price range. Donald has struggled of late, with a missed cut at the Valspar, and a 69th place finish at the Houston Open. However, if you’re a proponent of course history, Donald has one of the best here. Donald has five top 3 finishes or better here including a second place finish last year. I’m still weary to significantly weight course history, given how much “noise” goes into the data, but if you want a mispriced player that loves to play this course, consider Luke Donald.

Others golfers that are mispriced relative to the Vegas odds: Laird, Bozzelli, Glover, Fitzpatrick, Hadwin, Horschel, Lowry, List, Stanley

Birdie Scoring:

Tyrrell Hatton – $9,300

If you rostered Tyrrell Hatton last week, like I did, my condolences. In his Masters debut, Hatton, who is prone to blow ups when things aren’t going his way, showed how frustrating a course like Augusta can be. However, this recent performance could leave a bad taste in the mouths of DFS players and cause Hatton to be underowned. I’m not totally sold on this, but in low stakes tournaments, with inexperienced players, it could be more accurate. If so, it would set up nicely, as I think Hatton has no problem bouncing back this week. Hatton is one of the few non-bombers, that has the ability to consistently make birdies. Hatton has a course and field adjusted birdie average of 14.5 per tournament.

Anirban Lahiri – $7,400

Anirban Lahiri is a much lesser known player, but has that same ability to post a low score given his birdie making upside. Lahiri has a course and field adjusted birdie average of 14.2 and given his recent form, this could be a tournament for Lahiri to contend. While he did miss the cut in his last event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Lahiri has had a few weeks off, and was playing great golf prior to the missed cut. I’ll have a lot of Lahiri at low ownership this week.

Others birdie makers: Cantlay, Kaymer, Dufner, Hadwin, Molinari, Willett, Howell III, Kuchar, Perez, Kisner

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