FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 12 (Early)
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early slate which kicks off at 1:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
The Tuesday Night GPP scores were massive with the winning lineup putting up 324 FanDuel points, by far our highest total of the season! Over the first twelve slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 242.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first twelve slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 242.3 points.
Tuesday’s Picks and Pivots lineups performed well, most notably with our Robbie Ray/Mets stack line-up which went off for 251 FanDuel points on the highest scoring night we have seen so far this season. When the news broke that Trevor Story would be sitting, my thought process was to allocate salary in the OF to get both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon and stack them with Nolan Arenado. All three players hit home runs off Jered Weaver which set us up well for the night and our pivot stack to the New York Mets bats was all we needed to push us over the top as the Mets offense went off in Philadelphia! Yesterday was a perfect example of having to pivot to a back up plan and although the Mets were not initially my preferred secondary stack, the price points on guys like Asdrubal Cabrera and Lucas Duda made it easy to fit in the top Coors bats while still going after a great hitting environment!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,900): The Early Slate basically has one main roster build question – are you paying up for Max Scherzer at starting pitcher or are you going to pay up for the Coors Field bats?
My opinion is that it makes sense to pay the freight for Scherzer and find your offense in other spots as the most variability in DFS baseball tends to come from hitters so there is relative safety in paying up for a stud SP like Scherzer.
The other reason I am looking to pay up for Scherzer on this slate is that the secondary pitching options essentially boil down to Michael Fulmer or GPP dart throws. The fact that Fulmer is priced only $1,400 lower than Scherzer makes this an easy choice for me as it is conceivable that Scherzer doubles the point output of the next closest SP on the early slate!
Scherzer gets a great match-up against the Cardinals today, comes into this game as a massive -200 favorite and with his 31% K rate, he has the ability to put up a monster DFS score any time he takes the mound! Scherzer pitches incredibly well at home as last season he had a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .192 BAA and struck out 134 batters in only 102 innings.
The strikeout upside combined with Scherzer’s ability to limit hard contact (27%) and home runs(0.88 HR/9) in Washington’s ballpark make him the easy top target on this slate and I will have 100% exposure to him while looking to build my offense around him!
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks
Detroit Tigers versus RHP Kyle Gibson: On a short slate like this I expect the masses to flock towards the Coors Field bats and will do everything possible to jam in those guys which will leave a team like the Tigers completely under owned.
I understand the Coors Field appeal, I do – but I am not paying more to roster guys like Yangervis Solarte, Ryan Schimpf and Wil Myers when I can just as easily stack Miguel Cabrera ($3,800), Ian Kinsler ($3,300), Justin Upton ($3,000) and Victor Martinez ($2,700).
Before you go and force the Padres bats into your lineup today – ask yourself, if they were playing anywhere other than Coors Field, would you ever take their lineup over the Tigers? Also keep in mind Kyle Freeland, the Rockies starter, fired 6 innings of one run ball and struck out 7 Dodgers in his first start at Coors so this is not as much of a slam dunk as it seems.
The Rockies bats on the other hand absolutely have appeal but they are all priced over $4k so fitting them within a Scherzer roster build is nearly impossible unless you want to do use a 1-2 mini stack and a bunch of punts.
I am going to fade Coors today on the Early slate and lock in the Tigers bats who get a sneaky good spot against Gibson who gives up a 30% hard contact rate and 1.2 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate. Both Kinsler and Miggy have solid BvP against Gibson as well, batting over .300 against him with a home run for each player in 50 combined at bats.
The Tigers have the highest Early Slate projected run total of any team outside of Coors so if you are taking a Fade Coors approach, I would look towards the Tigers bats as your core lineup building block.
Tampa Bay Rays versus LHP Jordan Montgomery: The Rays take on a rookie LHP in Yankee Stadium and although it is always risky to target hitters against an unknown, we also know the Rays have some high upside right-handed bats that could thrive against an unproven commodity like Montgomery.
Evan Longoria ($3,300) and Steven Souza ($2,800) are both high upside power bats with exceptionally high hard contact rates against LHP and can be combined with Kevin Kiermaier ($2,800) at the top of the line-up to form a likely completely over-looked Tampa Bay Rays stack!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Max Scherzer ($10,900)
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C: Victor Martinez ($2,700)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($3,800)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,300)
3B: Evan Longoria ($3,300)
SS: Wilmer Difo ($2,100) With Trea Turner on the DL and Stephen Drew now out with a hamstring injury, Difo will likely be the main man at SS for the Nationals and considering he batted in the 2 hole on Tuesday, he makes for a great one-off punt play at a brutal SS position on the Early Slate!
OF: Justin Upton ($3,000)
OF: Steven Souza Jr. ($2,800)
OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($2,800)
Salary Remaining: $300
Slate Overview: Coors Bats or Pay for Max? That is really what it comes down to today for me. Basically you either pay up for the Rockies bats (I already made my case for the Padres fade) or you allocate your salary towards Scherzer and built a more balanced roster around the Tigers/Rays bats. The Rockies hitters have been underwhelming so far this year and on a short slate the ownership will still be massive so let everyone else chase it – grab the highest upside arm and build hitting stacks outside of Coors that will separate you from the field!
Next: DraftKings MLB Picks - Early Slate
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the latest lineup news and roster updates!