The curious case of Byron Buxton

Once heralded as one of baseball’s best prospects in years, Byron Buxton is now struggling just to remain in the Majors.

Byron Buxton?  More like Byron BUST-on, am I right?

If you stopped reading after that line, I don’t blame you. But just in case you are still reading for some reason, I am going to attempt to tackle a question that deserves a legitimate discussion: Is Byron Buxton a bust?

(I’d also like to put a disclaimer that this article is by no means in response to my frustration for having drafted Buxton in my fantasy baseball league this year).

The hype surrounding Buxton has been enormous since his high school days. Minnesota drafted Buxton second overall, and scouts instantly became enamored with Buxton’s game. Scouts struggled to find any weaknesses, and many considered Buxton to be the best prospect in baseball. There was even debate on whether he could be better than Mike Trout.

But since making his Major League debut in 2015, the excitement has quickly shifted to concern in Minneapolis. As of April 11, Buxton has slashed a dismal .211/.264/.379 in the big leagues. He’s been moved down in the lineup, benched, and demoted to the minors multiple times. He has yet to confirm that he will be able to be a competent Major League player, never mind live up to the sky-high expectations that everybody has placed on him.

So far this year, Buxton leads the majors in swing and misses. Take a look at his swing and miss chart so far, courtesy of Daren Willman. Warning: it’s ugly.

Buxton also no longer has the “small sample size” excuse, as he’s appeared in 145 games as a Twin, nearly a full season’s worth. While the Twins have staggered his playing time since his debut, he seems unable to adjust to Major League pitching or develop a reliable approach at the plate. He currently has 456 Major League at-bats and has struck out in 179 of them. Moreover, his recent play does not show any signs of improvement. In his first 26 at-bats this season, Buxton has just two hits and has struck out 14 times.

Worth noting, when the Twins called up Buxton in August 2015, he had recorded just 59 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.  In fact, Buxton only has 268 total plate appearances at Triple-A and just 271 at Double-A. It is fair to say that the Twins probably rushed Buxton through their system.

It is also understandable that the Twins were eager to get Buxton to the Majors so quickly.  Minnesota has just two winning seasons since it moved to Target Field in 2010 and has been rebuilding during most of its residency at the new ballpark. The team has been pretty devoid of star power recently, although guys like Buxton, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jose Berrios should be solid building blocks for the future. Still, Twins fans have to be concerned if this fast-track through the minors contributed to Buxton’s struggles.

Other teams are also seeing the possible negative consequences of abbreviating a prospect’s stint in the minors. New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto, for example, saw a grand total of zero plate appearances at Triple-A before his debut in 2015. Conforto was very good in his first season, slashing .270/.335/.506 in 56 games. 

However, Conforto regressed tremendously in 2016. After a scorching-hot April in which he hit .365, Conforto finished 2016 hitting just .220/.310/.414 as a Major Leaguer.  The Mets eventually sent him to Triple-A in June and then again in August. Conforto performed well at Triple-A but failed to carry that success over to Citi Field.

Many factors likely contributed to Conforto’s disappointing sophomore campaign. However, one cannot deny that rushing promising young players through the minors sometimes has its consequences.

Of course, there is still reason to believe Buxton will eventually find success at the Major League level. First, he is only 23 years old.  As a prospect, he possessed one of the most complete skill sets in the minors. He combined high-contact and high on-base abilities with incredible speed, superior fielding, and even solid bunting skills. Statistically, he has also been one of the league’s best fielders since his debut, according to Fangraphs.

And while 145 games is a solid sampling, it’s still just 145 games. When so much is expected from a player like Buxton, it’s normal for fans to overreact if he struggles early.

The Twins thought they caught lighting in a bottle when Buxton absolutely demolished Single-A in 2013, posting a .944 OPS. Buxton’s early professional success caused his limitless expectations to soar even further, perhaps unfairly.

Also interesting, according to August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs the Twins made Buxton change his leg kick at the plate. In high school, Buxton exhibited a high leg kick, but the Twins made him develop a “foot down early” approach  that he utilized throughout the minors. Buxton returned to the high leg kick in September 2016 when Minnesota called him back up, and performed extremely well.

Buxton appeared in 29 games in September and October for the Twins and hit an impressive .287/.357/.653 with nine home runs. The strikeouts were still high (38 in 101 at-bats, nearly a 38 percent strikeout rate), but Buxton still produced more at the end of 2016 than he ever had previously in the majors.

Could something so simple as a leg kick be the key to Buxton fixing his problems? Probably not in isolation, especially since the early 2017 numbers have not been pretty. But it is definitely something monitor as Buxton’s career progresses.

Next: Best Starting Pitchers in MLB History

There are definable reasons why Buxton has hard a time breaking into the Majors. There are also many reasons to be optimistic he will find his way. For now, there’s still no need to panic if you’re a Twins fan. Or if you’re, you know, a Buxton fantasy owner.