FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 13 (Early)
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early slate which kicks off at 1:10 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
The Wednesday winning GPP scores across the two slates landed between 220 and 230 across various contests on FanDul. Over the first 14 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 240.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 14 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 240.3 points.
Wednesday’s Picks and Pivots was a mixed bag as we had some success on the Early slate but the Main Slate was an all-out dud. Marcus Stroman pitched very well, going 9 innings and racking up 37 FanDuel points but it was the Toronto bats which let us(and many other) down in a big way as Donaldson-Morales-Bautista combined for 9 total FanDuel points.
Yesterday’s slate was the perfect reminder of the insane variability in MLB DFS as the analytics all pointed to a big time outing from Toronto where they completely fell flat but on the early slate, where I needed a punt SS in my lineup, I slid in Andrew Romine in one of my line-ups (pivot off Difo) and he responds with a grand slam! Just ride the wave in MLB DFS and keep your focus on tournaments as the variability each night ALWAYS gives you a chance to win big.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600): On a short four game slate like we have today, I expect the masses to flock to Yu Darvish in a great pitcher’s park against the Angels but as a tournament player, I think this is a great spot to play a strategic fade of Darvish.
If you are playing cash games, I see no reason to get cute on the Early Slate – you play Darvish, but in GPP’s there is cause for concern. In his first two starts against the Indians and Athletics, Darvish walked 8 batters while striking out only 9 and any time I see a pitcher (coming off a recent major injury) struggling with his control like that, I think we need to really question whether or not he is worth his elevated price.
The nail in the coffin for me is really his opponent – as the Angels strike out at one of the fewest rates in all of baseball and have the 4th fewest punch outs so far in this early MLB season. The previous two opponents, the Athletics and Indians have similar hitting profiles and we saw Darvish struggle in those games so I think we can play a large field fade on Darvish who I expect will be 40-50% owned on this slate.
The preferred pivot for me is Eduardo Rodriguez and frankly he is the only pivot I would consider as he is one of the only other arms on the early slate with the strikeout ability to potentially match even a mediocre Darvish.
E-Rod has a 22% K rate which is the second highest on the Early Slate and faces a Pittsburgh Pirates team that has a 23.3% K rate which is the highest on the slate. The Pirates line-up is very underwhelming when facing a lefty and you only need to look back 24 hours to see how the Reds Amir Garret, another lefty, put up 40 FanDuel points against this same Pirates lineup.
If this were a larger slate I would probably go a different route but on a short slate like this we have to find ways to differentiate ourselves from the field and I think moving off Darvish in a bad match-up and loading up on the strikeout upside in Boston gives us our best chance for success.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Chicago Cubs: If you are pivoting off Yu Darvish on this slate you will have the ability to pay up for bats across the board that the Darvish owners will not which allows you a completely different roster build in tournaments.
The Red Sox and Tigers have the two highest team totals on the early slate which will likely make them the highest owned stacks so instead I will look to pivot to the Cubs right-handed bats against Dodgers LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu pitched well in his first start of the year at Coors Field but remember this is a guy who has pitched 10 total innings since the 2014 season so there is bound to be rust here and with the Cubs offense at home in Wrigley, they always enter the conversation as one of my favorite stacks.
Kris Bryant ($4,300), Ben Zobrist ($3,000), Addison Russell ($2,700) and Willson Contreras ($3,100) are the four bats I am looking to build around in this spot today. Ryu has limited home runs in his career so rather than shooting for the home run one-offs, I would rather play a full on Cubs stack with the idea of stringing multiple hits/walks together throughout the Cubs lineup!
Mike Trout/Kole Calhoun Mini Stack: Whenever you get the sense a SP will be the chalk play on the slate and you intend to fade him, then I highly recommend doubling down and stacking hitters against him to further separate yourself from the field.
First off, Mike Trout is $5,100, so I expect most look at the price and the match-up against Darvish and run far away which should lead to him being massively under owned and any time I can get the best hitter in baseball at low ownership, I want in.
Trout and Kole Calhoun ($3,000) both have a large sample sizes against Darvish and some exceptional BvP which makes them even more intriguing on this slate. Trout is 10 for 37 with 4 home runs and 4 steals in his career while Calhoun is 4 for 11 with 2 of those 4 hits coming via the home run!
The Trout/Calhoun combo is risky as when Darvish is on he is typically unhittable but if they can get to him today you could have a massive advantage over the field in tournaments.
Red Sox LHB versus Chad Kuhl: The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the Early Slate so we can not completely ignore them and I think building a mini-stack of LHB in Andrew Benintendi ($3,200) and Mitch Moreland ($2,700) is the best way to get some high upside exposure here.
Kuhl has surrendered a 37% hard contact rate and 1.2 HR/9 to left-handed batters in his early career and with the wind blowing out to RF today in Fenway, we could see the two Red Sox lefty bats launch one into the seats!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600)
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C: Willson Contreras ($3,000)
1B: Mitch Moreland ($2,700)
2B: Ben Zobrist ($3,000)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,300)
SS: Addison Russell ($2,700)
OF: Andrew Benintendi ($3,200)
OF: Mike Trout ($5,100)
OF: Kole Calhoun ($3,000)
Salary Remaining $300
Slate Overview: The Early Slate today is one I will probably play lighter than I did yesterday as I don’t see as many different roster build paths however that does not mean we cannot take a firm stance and play a few different GPP’s. On a short slate like this you have to take stands somewhere and my stand today is a full on fade of Yu Darvish in the hope his control continues to be a problem against an Angels team that rarely strikes out. If Trout/Calhoun can put some crooked numbers on Darvish then we can zoom past the field who will likely be overweight on the clear top ace this afternoon!
Next: DraftKings MLB Picks - Early Slate
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!