FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 13 (Main)
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 1:10 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
The Wednesday winning GPP scores across the two slates landed between 220 and 230 across various contests on FanDul. Over the first 14 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 240.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 14 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 240.3 points.
Wednesday’s Picks and Pivots was a mixed bag as we had some success on the Early slate but the Main Slate was an all-out dud. Marcus Stroman pitched very well, going 9 innings and racking up 37 FanDuel points but it was the Toronto bats which let us(and many other) down in a big way as Donaldson-Morales-Bautista combined for 9 total FanDuel points.
Yesterday’s slate was the perfect reminder of the insane variability in MLB DFS as the analytics all pointed to a big time outing from Toronto where they completely fell flat but on the early slate, where I needed a punt SS in my lineup, I slid in Andrew Romine in one of my line-ups (pivot off Difo) and he responds with a grand slam! Just ride the wave in MLB DFS and keep your focus on tournaments as the variability each night ALWAYS gives you a chance to win big.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Madison Bumgarner ($11,300) Early SlateOn the we talked about a strategic fade of the highest priced arm but on the Main Slate I am simply locking in Madison Bumgarner at home in all formats.
This is a spot on a short six game Main Slate where I will happily let others chase the rest of the SP’s as MadBum is simply worth every penny when he is in his home ballpark. Last season in San Francisco, Bumgarner pitched to a 2.14 ERA and held opponents to a .195 BAA while surrendering only .5 HR/9 and a 29% hard contact in his home ball park.
In three starts last season against the Rockies, MadBum pitched 19 innings, striking out 22 batters and did not allow a single home run to a Rockies hitter.
I understand that recommending the best SP on the slate is not exactly rocket science but look at the other options – Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Jon Gray (against MadBum) or Robert Gsellman?
I simply see no reason to fade Bumgarner at home tonight on a short slate and he will be in 100% of my lineups tonight across all formats!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Baltimore versus Toronto – Gausman versus Liriano: On the Main slate I am heading to Toronto for 100% of my offense tonight as we get to target two teams in completely different DFS mindsets.
The Orioles were Wednesday’s DFS darlings crushing roughly 54 home runs against Steven Wright and I expect they will be very popular again tonight against Mr. Volatile – Francisco Liriano. Remember last week when Liriano was the chalk pitcher of the night and couldn’t make it past the first inning against the Rays? Yeah, this is a guy we want to stack against!
Rather than simply locking in the usual suspects in the high dollar range, I think there are a few value bats in the Orioles lineup that will make our stack a bit contrarian. Craig Gentry ($2,100) has been batting lead-off against LHP recently for the Orioles and if he is in that seat again tonight he makes for a fantastic low-cost addition to any line-up. Adam Jones ($3,700) will likely bat second and is the perfect addition to a mini-stack here as he has owned Liriano in his career, going 8 for 21 (.381 average) with 3 home runs.
Trey Mancini ($2,400) is coming off a monster two home run outing last night and I would expect he will remain in the OF for the Orioles today but you can slot him in at First Base on FanDuel. Finally we can include Wellington Castillo ($2,800) at catcher who has massive home run upside in this spot and helps us full a relatively weak catcher position!
The Toronto bats conversely let everyone down last night (including me) but this is a great spot to go back to them tonight! Gausman gives up a 31% hard contact rate to opposing batters and actually exhibited reverse splits last season as he surrendered 1.6 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.
Gausman was lit up by the Blue Jays last year in the Rogers Centre as he gave up 12 ER in 15 IP on the back of six home runs! I am going right back to the well with the Blue Jays bats here and will be stacking up Josh Donaldson ($3,600), Jose Bautista ($3,400), Troy Tulowitzki ($3,300) and Devon Travis ($2,400) in a prime bounce back spot!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Madison Bumgarner ($11,300)
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C: Wellington Castillo ($2,800)
1B: Trey Mancini ($2,400)
2B: Devon Travis ($2,400)
3B: Josh Donaldson ($3,600)
SS; Troy Tulowitzki ($3,300)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,400)
OF: Adam Jones ($3,700)
OF: Craig Gentry ($2,100)
Slate Overview: Lock in Madison Bumgarner. Do not over think it. The offensive options on this slate are a bit underwhelming and we saw FanDuel adjusted the hot hitting Mets prices way up and with a road date in Miami, I think this is a spot to jump off. I expect the Orioles will be popular today but we can be a bit contrarian by fading Manny Machado/Mark Trumbo and going with some value bats while jumping back on the big bats in Toronto who will likely be under owned after their Wednesday night dud!
Next: DraftKings MLB Picks - Main Slate
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates.