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Braves Jaime Garcia: Intriguing two-start pitcher for deep leagues

By Gavin Tramps

Mar 12, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jaime Garcia (54) throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jaime Garcia (54) throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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There are so many uninspiring options when scouring waivers for the best two-start pitchers for Week 3. Braves Jaime Garcia, with a career 3.48 ERA, could be the choice for deep leagues.

Streaming pitchers is a strategy filled with risks. One bad outing can damage your ratios in rotisserie leagues, but picking up the right two-start pitcher can be the difference maker in your head-to-head matchups. Atlanta Braves Jaime Garcia is widely available, and you are unlikely to face much competition to add him to your roster this week.

The left-hander had the best season of his career in 2015, with a 10-6 win-loss record, 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He kept the ball down with an impressive 61.2% ground ball rate and restricted damage by only allowing six home runs.

Garcia started last season with similarly useful outings, posting a 3.47 ERA over ten starts in April and May. From June onwards, he endured the worst stretch of his career with a 5.30 ERA. He maintained an elite ground ball rate of around 55 GB% but was destroyed by the long ball. Having only given up a total of 18 home runs over the previous three seasons, Garcia was taken deep 23 times in his final 20 starts of 2016. The 24% HR/FB rate was the highest among qualified starters. No pitcher can survive if one in four fly balls are going over the fence.

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Following an offseason move to Atlanta, the 30-year-old looked good with a 3.20 ERA over five starts in Spring Training. His two starts in the 2017 regular season have not made fantasy owners rush to the waiver wire to pick up the left-hander.

He has given up seven runs over 11 innings, with as many walks as strikeouts (four). Garcia has already allowed three home runs, although two were from the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, and he can homer off almost any pitcher.

Health has been one of the biggest limiting factors preventing Garcia from establishing himself as a must-own starter for mixed leagues. Fortunately, we are not speculating about his performances for the whole season, just the next two starts.

His first start is scheduled against Jered Weaver and the Padres on Monday, April 17. Offensively, the Padres are bottom-dwelling, with .216 team batting average. The second start will be at Philadelphia on Saturday, April 22. The Phillies and the Padres were the worst two teams last season, and both look like favorites to finish fourth in their division this year.

Garcia’s ownership is 5.1% in ESPN leagues, 7% in Yahoo leagues and 31% in CBS leagues. The higher ownership in CBS reflects their tendency to cater for deeper rosters and points leagues that value pitchers more highly.

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There is no obvious reason why Garcia is being punished so severely by home runs. He is a far better pitcher than shown by the results in the final four months of last season. Undoubtedly he is a risky add, but his ownership would be far higher otherwise. Few other two-start options with such low ownership have had elite seasons like Garcia’s 2015, and if he can get his sinker, slider, changeup combination working, he could repeat the success.

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