Nylon Calculus: The missing piece in the MVP discussion

With the regular season concluded, the NBA’s MVP voters have quite the challenge on their hands. There are four strong candidates — Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard — and the debate over what could possibly separate these players seems never-ending. Still, despite this group of star-studded candidates, a certain type of player is consistently absent in the discussion.

This “missing piece,” as I will call it, is a big man whose primary contributions occur on the defensive end of the floor. And it’s important to note that this neglect has nothing to do with a lack of options, as the NBA currently boasts two elite defensive forces in Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green. Given our focus on offensive production, are we overlooking another strand of deserving players in the MVP race?

Before diving into the numbers, it’s important to preface any MVP discussion with the individual’s definition of the award. For me, the MVP doesn’t deal with aptitude (or what the player could do), but more about the player’s on-court impact (or what they have done) this season. Personally, the MVP doesn’t have to be the best current player. It’s about the total impact over this one season that matters to me.

So let’s use ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (and the Wins column specifically) to estimate a player’s overall impact this season. Wins, in this case, takes into account the player’s RPM along with the number of possessions that player has played on the court. With that being the case, we should have a rough estimation of a player’s total overall on-court impact this season and one that is numerically consistent with my conceptual definition of the award.

Now, this isn’t a perfect science, as RPM isn’t meant to be used as a ranking system and can struggle with properly evaluating outliers. With the flaws of RPM in mind, it’s still quite revealing where Green and Gobert rank in terms of overall production. In terms of Wins, both players are in the mix with the more traditional MVP candidates, despite having relatively low Offensive Real Plus-Minus values.

So what makes up for their deficiencies on the offensive end? Defense of course! And that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as power forwards and centers are the most impactful positions on the defensive end. This season, Green and Gobert have both posted elite rim protection stats, helping lead two of the three best team defenses in the league.

Of course, RPM is only one piece in a complex and ever-evolving puzzle. The defensive portion of all-in-one metrics is particularly hard to quantify, making it challenging to conclude whether or not players like Gobert and Green are truly as impactful on the defensive end as players like Westbrook and Harden are on the offensive end. Ultimately, as we continue to improve our defensive metrics, we may soon normalize the inclusion of defensive-minded big men in the MVP race.

Sources: ESPN.com, NBA.com/Stats