Nylon Calculus: Shoot your shot — the hotspots for every playoff team
By Matt D'Anna
So, the playoff preview content is likely to be intense and voluminous across the inter-webs leading up to Saturday (including right here at FanSided), so I’ll be relatively brief and somewhat nuanced here…
What is a hotspot? In the context of basketball, a hotspot is an area on the court that a player/lineup/team is continually successful from. It’s those spots that a shooter keeps taking, and making. While there’s bound to be volatility in a game, a week, even a month of shooting — after an entire season we can get a pretty good sense of where a team is successful from. While these hotspots aren’t the only places a team will shoot from, these are the places they tend to drain shots from. These are akin to the Hunting Grounds I’ve wrote around many times in the past.
But here’s where the two concepts differ. What makes a hotspot hot? There should be some comparison to “normal” to provide context. Does a team work best in the same spaces as the rest of the league? Are their hotspots truly hot? So, as a baseline, here are the league-wide shooting hotspots for this season:
These hotspots should come as no surprise. The midrange is dead, the rim and the corners are the keys to success, and three is usually worth more than two. While we’ve been trending in this direction for more than a couple seasons now, 2016-2017 may represent the most drastic representation of this style of play.
Now that we know where normal is, let’s compare and contrast the scoring hotspots for each of the 16 playoff teams.
Group 1: Similar to league-wide, and really good
The perfect one to start with, since this has to be the least surprising, right? Houston has been the model for this style of offense for years, so putting Mike D’Antoni, James Harden, an arsenal of long-range bombers (Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson), and a rim-diving center (Clint Capela) together — the results are hotspots even more precise than the league averages. Impressive.
It doesn’t seem very intuitive to think of the Celtics offense as a slightly more mid-rangy, less effective version of the Rockets, but…here we are. A really good offense doing all the right things.
Well, this surprises me a bit. What’s particularly unique about the Bucks’ hotspots are that there really aren’t a lot of them. There’s no red outside of the paint. And while there activity is similar to league average, their above-the-break 3-point shooting is pretty sparse. When you compare this chart to their shooting rankings, the Bucks are sneaky-good.
Group 2: Similar to league-wide, and… not as good
The Thunder have seemingly got the right idea here. And when you look at the map alone, it makes sense. Westbrook owns the paint; Steven Adams and Enes Kanter are solid from there, too. But, a closer look — with some stats — is telling. The 3-point line is pretty sparse, in both activity (a bit too much blue is showing) and accuracy (last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage). It’s theoretically a ripe situation for Doug McDermott to flourish in — but he’s getting off less than three 3-point attempts per game since joining the Thunder.
Group 3: Different than league-wide, and really good
Please, stop me when you’ve heard this before: the Spurs are bucking league-wide trends and continue to be dominant. That mid-range game is unheard of in 2017, especially when it’s coupled with league-best shooting from beyond the arc. Their hotspots look like Dirk Nowitzki activity: a little bit of everything, from everywhere.
The Chris Paul Era Clippers remain painfully consistent; this chart looks nearly identical each year. We could start calling them The Masters, since it’s a tradition unlike any other. What always makes the Clips so unique is their abundance of elbow activity; a direct result of Chris and Blake pick-and-rolls. While not as scattered as San Antonio, it’s even deadlier.
The Wizards hotspots are like a weird hybrid of San Antonio and Los Angeles. They don’t have quite the variety of the Spurs, nor quite the elbows of the Clippers, and have created a top-10 offense this season. John Wall has been doing a great Chris Paul impression this season, having shot at the highest percentage of his career. That newfound 3-point activity has been the result of a relatively healthy Bradley Beal and the emergence of Otto Porter.
Not a lot of surprises here. DeMar DeRozan was great this season, and Kyle Lowry’s been injured, so it’s expected to see more midrange hotspots than 3-point ones. This activity is like a Spurs-lite, which is generally never a bad thing.
Group 4: Different than league-wide, and… not as good
There’s a lot going on here. Paul George took a career-high 11.4 2-point shots per game this season. Monta Ellis took less than two 3-point shots per game this season; his lowest since 2008-09. Jeff Teague shot 3-pointers at a good clip, but probably not enough of them. There’s a little bit of everything, but not enough of most of it.
This is similar to the Pacers, but a little sparser. There’s very little 3-point activity, which may actually be a good thing, given the team 3-point percentages. The diversity of hotspots looks good at first, but when combined with the team shooting rankings (nothing better than 20th), it does not look good.
Group 5: Kinda similar, kinda different than league-wide, and really good
Also known as best in the league. The Warriors have the 3-point hotspots of the Rockets, but at a much better shooting percentage (third vs. 15th). The Warriors have elbow activity similar to the Clippers (although not as strong). It’s almost as if having the best offense in the league requires a balance of all three areas — 3-point, at the rim, and midrange. It’s almost as if this is completely un-guard-able.
Post-All-Star break defensive woes be damned, the Cavs resemble the Warriors. Resemble, not impersonate tho — Cleveland doesn’t have quite the same 3-pointt activity (although they shoot it at a very similar clip). The Cavs also have a little more non-elbow mid-range activity, too. There’s also nothing significant to poke holes in the third-best offense in the league.
Did not expect to see the Jazz in this category, but here we are. All of the percentages back it up as well — Utah does a lot right, and very little wrong. The activity is similar to Milwaukee, but with much better 3-pointer activity. If the Bucks are dangerous, the Jazz are even more dangerous-er.
Group 6: Kinda similar, kinda different than league-wide, and… good
The Blazers are in a bit of a weird place. Their hotspots aren’t exactly league average, and they aren’t exactly the opposite, either. Further, when you factor in team rankings, they aren’t exactly on the same level as the Wizards or the Jazz, but their activity is like a hybrid of them. But, their offense is really good, and their activity is generally in a good place. This is what the Pacers and Bulls (teams of a similar record) should strive towards.
Group 7: Kinda similar, kinda different than league-wide, and… not as good
One or two seasons ago, the Hawks activity was similar to the Warriors and Cavs of this year. And while some of the hotspot locations are reminiscent of those days, the shooting percentages are not. The activity is actually more balanced than it has been in recent years, but the accuracy has tailed off.
This is not traditional Grit-and-Grind shot behavior. It’s a pleasant surprise to see so much activity from deep, as well as a middle-of-the-road 3-point shooting percentage. In many ways this activity is a carbon copy of the Jazz, but at much worse shooting percentages.
Ultimately, it’s debatable how much this activity foreshadows playoff performance. Preparing for a single opponent for multiple games offers new opportunities for modifications and adjustments. Match-ups matter, obviously. However, these hotspots do demonstrate each teams’ bread-and-butter. So if anything, during the playoffs the shots may stay exactly the same, but how a team gets to them may differ.
As always, data courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference, and Darryl Blackport.