Nylon Calculus: The Thunder may need to slow down their transition game
By Ian Levy
The Thunder’s offense was fairly simplistic this season, and a lot of it was predicated on Russell Westbrook’s ability to generate downhill momentum. The Thunder averaged 106.6 points per game in the regular season. Between halfcourt drives and fastbreaks, Westbrook accounted for 14.4 points per game, about 13.5 percent of that total. Another 14.8 came in second-chance points, often the result of Steven Adams or Enes Kanter taking advantage of a defense that had collapsed down to contest a Westbrook miss.
One of the most obvious ways to create this downhill momentum has been pushing the ball in transition — the Thunder had the fifth-shortest average possession length this season (per Inpredictable) and used the fourth-highest percentage of their offensive possessions in transition (per the NBA’s play type statistics). In particular, there was the much-debated tendency of the team to leak out, allowing Westbrook to corral uncontested defensive rebounds (and pad his counting stats into triple-double range), but also help the Thunder move from offense to defense even quicker.
The Thunder’s offense was a tire fire in Game 1 against the Houston Rockets, managing just 87.7 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have ranked last in the league by nearly 13 points. Westbrook struggled with Patrick Beverley’s physical defense and turned the ball over nine times. The Thunder generated just four second-chance points and other than Westbrook (who was 3-of-11) the rest of the roster made just 6-of-18 3-pointers.
Oklahoma City finished with 16 fastbreak points, roughly in line with their regular season average, but their transition game actually struggled quite a bit — especially after defensive rebounds.
In the regular season, the average Thunder possession after a defensive rebound lasted about 11.3 seconds and earned Oklahoma City an average of 1.07 points per possession. In Game 1 against Houston, those numbers were 10.3 seconds (much faster!) and 0.77 points per possession (much worse!). All things being equal, scoring off defensive rebounds at the rate they did in the regular season would have netted them an additional 10 points, not enough to erase the margin of defeat but significant when you consider how outlier-poor their 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding was.
Scanning the play-by-play, three of Westbrook’s nine defensive rebounds were followed (in 12 seconds or less) by him turning the ball over. He also had another turnover six seconds after an Andre Roberson defensive rebound. Three of the Thunder’s six turnovers not committed by Westbrook also came within 12 seconds of a defensive rebound. Altogether that’s seven of the team’s 15 turnovers that came as they tried to run off a missed shot by the Rockets.
Next: Just what the heck were Nate McMillan and the Pacers doing at the end of Game 1?
The Thunder’s offense struggles in the halfcourt and so taking any opportunity to attack against a scrambled defense is important. The Rockets did a nice job of pressuring Westbrook at the point of the attack but also invited him to press a little bit in transition and attack without a plan of escape. The Thunder have a lot to adjust for Game 2 but being a little more patient with their signature breakneck transition attack might be a helpful tweak.