Streaming pitchers, especially the low ownership ones, is fraught with risks. Picking up the right two-start pitcher can be a difference maker. Miami Marlins Wei-Yin Chen might be that guy.
There are some interesting two-start pitching options for Week Four, including Jason Vargas (consecutive scoreless outings), Luis Severino (consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts) and Amir Garrett (struck out 12 in his last appearance). All three are owned in at least 77% of CBS leagues. Miami Marlins Wei-Yin Chen is far more widely available and could be your choice for deep leagues this week.
The 31-year-old is fresh off being pulled after seven innings of a no-hitter against the slugging Seattle Mariners. To be fair, he had reached 100 pitches and looked gassed. He also looked far more like the pitcher that posted 3.44 ERA over 62 starts (377 IP) in 2014-2015.
Last season was an unmitigated disaster for the left-hander as he endured the worst stretch of his career following the move from the Orioles to the Marlins. In 22 starts, he posted a 4.96 ERA. Perhaps it wasn’t completely unmitigated, as he suffered from a career-high 14.9% HR/FB, resulting in 22 home runs.
The trend for being taken deep continued in Spring Training. Although Chen only allowed seven earned runs over 19 innings, six were home runs.
The regular season opened with an impressive one-run outing vs. Mets in New York, with Chen striking out five over six innings. He will never give you many strikeouts, as shown by his career 7.00 SO/9. One week later, the Mets destroyed him in his second start of the season, and he was pulled after allowing six runs (including two home runs) in just three innings.
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His third start was the seven-inning no-hitter vs. the Mariners. Chen credits his success to the command of his changeup and to catcher A.J. Ellis’ game plan. Going into Week Four, Chen owns a 2-0 win-loss record with 3.94 ERA, 1.06 WHIP but an unimpressive 5.63 SO/9.
Currently, Chen is owned in 5% of ESPN leagues, 10% of Yahoo leagues and 23% of CBS leagues. The higher ownership in CBS reflects their tendency to cater for deeper rosters and for points leagues that value pitchers more highly.
The Phillies will be the first of his opponents on Tuesday, April 25, when Chen pits himself against Vince Velasquez. The Phillies are one of the five most strikeout-prone teams in the NL. Two of their best hitters from last season have started 2017 poorly with Tommy Joseph owning a .458 OPS and Maikel Franco .494 OPS.
The second start of the week is scheduled to be on Sunday, April 30 vs. Chad Kuhl and the Pirates. Pittsburgh is in the bottom five in the NL with .229 AVG and has just lost their best player, Starling Marte, to an 80-game suspension.
Measuring a team’s defense by the number of errors committed is an unsatisfactory method, but the Marlins rank in the top-5 with just five errors this season. Using the more recognized DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), the Marlins rank in the top-4 of the NL. Both are positive statistics for a contact pitcher like Chen.
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Whether Chen can regain his lost velocity or rediscover his slider, will determine his fantasy value for the rest of the season. As we are only concerned with Week Four, he is coming off an excellent start and is facing two below-average opponents. What have you got to lose?