Jameson Taillon and Michael Pineda are both out to strong starts in 2017, and such continued efforts from each could dictate an under in today’s interleague affair.
Wow, yet another really tough bad beat last night, although luckily this one resulted in a push instead of a loss.
Even still, that Marlins-Padres series opener played out exactly how I said it would, with Adam Conley and Trevor Cahill both absolutely dealing, and we had it at 1-1 in the bottom of the seventh before .170-hitting dead-bat Austin Hedges cracked a fluke two-out, three-run jack off above-average bullpen arm David Phelps. Add in a two-run homer with one out in the ninth, and an unlucky push is where we stood. Fortunately, I believe I have a nice under bet for today to quickly move past that.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 11-8-3 (57.9%), +220
Yesterday’s Result: Conley vs Cahill Under 8 (PUSH)
NY Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Michael Pineda vs Jameson Taillon
UNDER 7 (-110) (via OddsShark)
I salivated as soon as I saw this pitching matchup, which is usually a good sign for the prospects of a bet.
It’s one thing to pursue an under involving two generally dominant pitchers, but it’s much more advantageous when said starting hurlers are both in their groove. That is clearly true of both Jameson Taillon and Michael Pineda, whom are each out to terrific starts in 2017.
Taillon, a 2010 first-round draft pick, is in his first full season in the big leagues after finally making his debut last June, and he’s come roaring out of the gate. The 25-year-old has allowed just three runs (two earned) combined over his first three starts, including two remarkably impressive performances on the road at Fenway Park and Wrigley Field opposite elite lineups.
Without question, Taillon looks like someone to ride right now with confidence, and being one of my top three sleepers entering the season, that’ll probably be a good idea throughout the duration of the campaign. In his short time in the majors, he’s also been better at home, owning a 2.88 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at PNC Park compared to a 3.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. His home splits may certainly aid us in this under as well.
Pineda is another right-hander that has just been absolutely surging in the early going, as evident in his 0.93 WHIP and stunning 23/1 K/BB ratio through his first three assignments.
The 28-year-old struggled a bit in his season debut, but since then, he’s showcased everything the Yankees have been looking for since first acquiring him a few years ago. Pineda has long had monumental potential to become a top frontline starter, and perhaps he is finally starting to harness that.
Remember, this is someone that is a classic case of being better than the stats indicate. Last year, for instance, Pineda was 6-12 with a 4.82 ERA, but was also horribly unlucky, having to put up with a .339 average on balls put in play, and it was almost just as bad the year before that with a .332 mark in that department.
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Well, Pineda’s FIP in each of the past two years has registered as 3.80 and 3.34, respectively, which is nearly a full run below his actual ERA. That’s intriguing because the Fielding Independent Pitching stat measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if they were to experience league average results on balls put in play and league average timing, and Pineda is starting to get closer to those results this season, which is leading to a lower ERA.
In any event, when these two right-handers hook up in pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh today, you have to be anticipating a duel based on how they’ve looked thus far. Under it is.