FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 24
Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning GPP scores were well below the season average as it only took 214 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 26 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 244.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 26 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 244.5 points
After three straight slate victories, Picks and Pivots took one on the chin on Sunday’s slate as our “Eat the Chalk” approach of Danny Salazar and Cubs bats fell short of the cash line! The Cubs bats were popular (although nothing crazy) as most sat in the 20-30% range and Salazar was a whopping 47.5% owned and although he did rack up 9 K’s in 5 IP, he gave up 4 ER and was not around to get a QS or right back for a win!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick
Amir Garrett ($7,700) I never expected in April of the MLB season I would be starting a column off with Amir Garrett of the Reds but on this slate we are going to have to take some risks with our starting pitcher pick!
Garrett has been an absolute revelation early in the season for the Reds, pitching to a 1.83 ERA over three starts with a stellar 21:3 K:BB ratio. The young left-hander has the second highest strikeout rate on the slate (28.4%) and faces off with a Brewers team that has the highest K rate against LHP of any team in baseball (30%).
The Brewers bats have been mashing the baseball recently but with a left-hander on the hill it should help neutralize the impact of Eric Thames/Travis Shaw and Garrett can pick on a guy like Jonathan Villar and his 43% K rate against southpaws!
If you are looking for a pivot play, we can go back to picking on the White Sox bats with the Royals left-hander Jason Vargas ($8,500) who is pitching out of his mind early this season, averaging just under 53 FD points per game!
Vargas has the highest K rate on this slate (30.1%) and the White Sox have the second lowest team total on the board which makes him an intriguing roster at this price point. It will be interesting to see the ownership projections as the day progresses as the recency bias against the White Sox may drive Vargas’ ownership higher than we are comfortable with, making a GPP fade a possibility.
Remember that Vargas is a 34-year-old pitcher with a career 4.11 ERA who has a career 15% K rate so the correction here feels like it is coming and if Vargas is chalk, this is the spot to jump off in my opinion and stay the course with the young Reds lefty!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks versus RHP Jhoulys Chacin: With a game in Coors Field and an 11 projected run total we will likely see a healthy amount of ownership in this game especially with no high-priced arms we want to pay up for.
However as I usually find myself doing, I will avoid the temptation of forcing in inflated Coors priced bats into my lineup and will look for viable pivot options. Arizona has a 5.16 run projection tonight which is the highest outside of Coors Field and less than a half a run from either the Rockies or Nationals.It is also expected to be in the mid 80’s in Arizona and we know that Chase Field can be every bit as good as Coors Field when the weather is right!
Arizona faces off with the Padres Chacin who true to his career form is getting roughed up by left-handed bats this season to the tune of a 35% hard contact rate and 1.5 HR/9. The early season numbers essentially mimic his 2016 numbers versus LHP where his K rate drops to 14% and his hard hit rate jumps to nearly 35% so I am all in on the key left-handed bats here in Jake Lamb ($3,900) and David Peralta ($3,000).
Chacin is able to limit the hard contact to right-handed as well as limit the home run ball so I would not look to play right-handed one off’s in this spot and instead would only look towards guys like Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300) and the red-hot A.J. Pollock ($3,900) in full on GPP stacks!
Texas Rangers versus Phil Hughes: Sitting right behind Arizona in projected runs scores are the Texas Rangers who get to face Phil Hughes at home tonight! Hughes has only a 13% K rate and gave up 34% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate last season.
This season however, no pitcher in baseball has a higher hard contact rate than Mr. Hughes at a whopping 50.1% so the Rangers bats should be primed to score in bunches tonight!
Rougned Odor ($3,200) and Nomar Mazara ($3,300) are very fairly priced which is indicative of the entire Rangers offense tonight making them a great cost-effective stacking choice with the Arizona bats or if you plan on getting some Coors exposure.
Do not overlook Robinson Chirinos ($2,400) who has started 2 of the last 3 games for Texas and has 3 home runs in that stretch. If he is in the line-up tonight he makes for a no-brainer punt play at this price point!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview
P: Amir Garrett ($7,700)
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C: Robinson Chirinos ($2,400)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,200)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,900)
SS: Corey Seager ($3,300) Shortstop is weak on this slate and Seager comes into this game 5 for his last 9 and gets to face Matt Cain which makes him a great one-off play.
OF: A.J. Pollock ($3,900)
OF: David Peralta ($3,000)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,300)
Slate Overview: To Coors or not to Coors? With no stud pitchers to pay up for tonight(yes I do not consider Zack Greinke worth his $10k price tag) I think you will see inflated Coors ownership tonight especially with the big name Nationals bats. For that reason I love the idea of pivoting off that game and going to Arizona/Texas who have nearly equal run projections and get extremely favorable match-ups. We will keep an eye on the ownership projections today as Amir Garrett is my clear #1 SP and I would have some interest in Vargas as a pivot but if we see him becoming the chalk play then I will happily fade him on this slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!