Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores spiked well above the season average as it took 289 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 28 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 246.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 28 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 246.2 points.
Tuesday Night’s Picks and Pivots line-ups had a big time bounce back night as we landed well over the cash line across all formats primarily as a result of our Arizona Diamondbacks stack which went off as Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock and Yasmany Tomas helped Arizona score 9 runs!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Last night was a very interesting one to watch unfold as the question of Kershaw or offense was the key roster debate throughout the day. Ultimately when rosters locked we saw Kershaw demand his usual 25%+ ownership in GPP’s but we saw guys like Michael Wacha at the same levels and it was those lineups that opted to pay down at SP and up for bats that were littered across the winning lineups.
Tonight we have a similar question – do we pay up for Noah Syndergaard or pay down so we can go after bats. If there is one underlying GPP principal it is that offense wins tournaments so I think the key on a slate like this is to find A) Reasons to fade Syndergaard and B) Viable pivots off him!
As much as Syndergaard is a monster on the mound and has pitched to an insane 30:0 K:BB ratio this season, I actually think there are viable reasons to fade him – and this is coming from a Mets fan. First off the match-up with the Braves is not an easy one as they strike out at only a 21% clip and Thor has only struck out 27% of the Braves batters in his career PvB numbers. Secondly, the Mets bats are cold right now and they have to face a guy in Julio Teheran that has exceptional career numbers against them.
This is actually a re-match of opening day where Thor pitched 6 innings, struck out 7 but was left without a win, racking up only 43 FanDuel points. If we see a similar projection tonight we can reasonably fade Syndergaard and pivot down to pitchers that can land us in a similar point range while leaving us with significantly more salary for bats!
Dylan Bundy ($8,100) gets a home start against the Rays tonight and comes into this game with 40 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four starts. Bundy will take on a Rays team that has the second highest strikeout rate in all of baseball and the third highest against right-handed pitching.
Bundy is one of the larger home favorites on this slate (-140) combined with his ability to limit walks (4%) and hard contact (16%) this season make him an ideal target on this slate. Bundy is similar to our Wacha call from last night in that he provides a “safe” alternative who has the ability to stay right in range with the top end arms and has a match-up with added K upside which makes him a great GPP play!
If you are looking for a GPP pivot, I have some interest tonight in Vincent Velasquez ($7,800) who gets a home start against the Marlins. Outside of Syndergaard no pitcher on this slate has the strikeout upside that the Phillies right-hander has as he has 19 K’s in only 15 IP this season. Velasquez is the definition of a boom or bust GPP SP as he has failed to give up less than 3 ER’s this season in any start but he does have great career numbers against these Marlins hitters as he has limited them to a .216 average and struck them out at a 30% clip!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Seattle Mariners versus LHP Daniel Norris: There are a TON of great offensive spots to target on this slate and you will notice I will not even mention Coors Field so I think today is a day for a variety of mini-stacks in your line-ups as we have great hitting environments to take advantage of!
The Mariners get to take on Daniel Norris who is giving up a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed bats while surrendering 1.7 HR/9 and striking out only 17% of hitters! Any time Nelson Cruz ($4,100) is facing a LHP he becomes a lock and load play for me and I love the idea of pairing him with Jean Segura ($3,400) who returned from the DL with a bang last night (35 FD points) and was seemingly ignored by the DFS community as he was only 6% owned in GPP’s.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus RHP Trevor Cahill: The Diamondbacks just keep hitting in Chase Field and I see no reason to move off this train as they have the highest run projection of any team outside of Coors Field again tonight!
Tonight they face off with Trevor Cahill who is a massive ground ball pitcher that is able to limit hard contact against right-handed bats but against lefties, we see that hard hit rate spike and the home run rate move with it which puts Jake Lamb ($3,800) and David Peralta ($3,300) at the core of my roster build today!
San Diego Padres versus RHP Zack Godley: Staying in the same ballpark, the Padres get to face off with Godley who is a reverse splits righty giving up a 37% hard contact rate and 1.65 HR/9 to right-handed bats in his career.
The Padres prices remain reasonable even with the massive ballpark shift and tonight I will be going back to the 5-6 mini-stack in Austin Hedges ($3,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700) which provides massive power upside at a continues low ownership!
Texas Rangers versus LHP Hector Santiago: The Rangers have a run projection tonight just slightly behind Arizona tonight and facing off against Hector Santiago – this should not be a suprise.
Santiago gave up a 1.6 HR/9 and 37% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate last season has been pounded by right-handed hitters early in the year. Mike Napoli ($3,100) has some very interesting BvP versus Santiago – in 30 plate appearances he has walked a whopping 13 times (43%)! Clearly Santiago wants nothing to do with him and Napoli is not fooled at all so if Santiago makes a mistake – this could be a great spot to call a home run! Do not overlook Rougned Odor ($3,300) either who has simply owned Santiago in his career going 11 for 26 and may be skipped over due to the lefty-lefty matchup.
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview
P: Dylan Bundy ($8,100)
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C: Austin Hedges ($3,200)
1B: Mike Napoli ($3,100)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,300)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,800)
SS: Jean Segura ($3,400)
OF: David Peralta ($3,300)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,100)
OF: Hunter Renfroe ($2,700)
Slate Overview: Tonight’s slate is almost identical to last night as we are going to drop down at SP with a solid option in a high K match-up and spend up on offense while fading the chalk in Coors Field.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!