Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning GPP scores continued well above the season average as it took 271 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 30 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 248.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 30 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 248.2 points.
Thursday’s Picks and Pivots fell flat as the Main Slate “chalk” approach of Chris Sale (who dominated) with the Arizona bats (who went cold) left us well below the cash line as the Cardinals stack ended up being the Main Slate difference maker!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Charlie Morton ($6,300) Yep, on a slate with Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Jake Arrieta I am starting my picks today with Charlie Flippin Morton! Don’t click away just yet – hear me out!
Now I am not saying the top end studs are poor plays by any means, those pedigree of pitchers are always in play but tonight I find myself looking to load up on offenses as we have some teams in fantastic spots that I want to take advantage of.
What that means is we are going to need to find a bargain SP for tournaments and Charlie Morton is a guy who absolutely jumps off the page at me today.
First off, Morton has seemingly found something new in his delivery which is delivering substantially more velocity that we need to take notice of. Last season his fastball and two seam fastball saw an average velocity of between 86-89 MPH – this season however we are seeing those numbers spike drastically to 93 MPH!
Morton gets to face off with a Oakland team today we typically think of as a low strikeout squad but this year they are 6th in all of MLB in strikeout rate and are top 5 in strikeouts against RHP with a 24% K rate!
Lastly, Morton is a significant home favorite today (-154) which is the 5th best mark of any pitcher on this slate and he is priced as the fourth cheapest SP.
So all told we get a pitcher who is seeing a significant uptick in velocity (remember this is a guy who had a 27% K rate last season so I do not think this is a fluke), facing a top strikeout team and is a massive home favorite. I would expect he is under 5% owned on this slate and I think he makes for one of the best GPP plays on this slate!
At the same price point I have interest as well in Kevin Gausman ($6,500) against the Yankees. Now this one is definitely riskier as Gausman has pitched to a 7.5 ERA this season but I think this slow start is merely a blip on the radar and not indicative of the pitcher he really is.
Gausman in his career has been a guy with exceptional control (6% walk rate) with a 23% K rate but this season the walk rate has more than doubled and the K rate has dropped in half. Looking at his velocity he is essentially sitting at nearly identical numbers from last season so I do not believe we are looking at an injury here and he actually is giving up nearly 5% less hard contact than last season.
His xFIP (which is a great indicator of correction/regression) sits at 5.57 which you can essentially think of as his adjusted ERA. This is a guy who in his career has never been above 3.9 in that metric so I think he is legit unlucky so far this season and he faces a Yankee team he was dominant against least season in Yankee stadium pitching to a 1 ERA!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks versus LHP Kyle Freeland: Well we no longer have Coors Field to target (not that Picks and Pivots was anyways) but we still have Chase Field to go after and with a lefty on the hill we can simply load up on the DBacks right-handed power!
Freeland is a guy in a limited sample size this year that has a 14% K rate and 10% and gives up 30% hard contact rate and in Chase Field that could mean big time crooked numbers. The prices are elevated but Arizona is one of the absolute best GPP stacks any time they are home against a lefty and I will have heavy exposure to Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500), A.J. Pollock ($4,200) and Yasmany Tomas ($3,400) on this slate!
Houston Astros versus Jharel Cotton: So far this season Cotton has struggled with a 15% K rate and 11% walk rate and that lack of control could be a big time issue pitching in Houston against a powerful lineup like the Astros have.
With injuries to guys like Jose Altuve/George Springer there is actually some high/middle of the order value to be had here and I think we can lock in guys like Josh Reddick ($3,000) and Brian McCann ($3,100)/Evan Gattis ($3,200) who will continue to hit in prime positions for the Astros and can be stacked around stud SS Carlos Correa ($3,600).
Detroit Tigers versus Mike Pelfrey: You know its a loaded hitting slate when hitters against Mike Pelfrey is the third stack on my list.
DFS 101 – you stack against Big Pelf any time you can and we saw in his first start he could barely make it through the 4th inning! Not surprisingly the Tigers have great BvP against Pelfrey from his time in Minnesota and today I think you can lock in guys like Ian Kinsler ($3,500) and Nick Castellanos ($3,300) to ensure you have exposure to a potential blow up spot in Detroit!
FanDuel MLB: Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Charlie Morton ($6,300) and Kevin Gausman ($6,400)
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C: Evan Gattis ($3,200) or Brian McCann ($3,100)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,500)
3B: Nick Castellanos ($3,300)
SS: Carlos Correa ($3,600)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($4,200)
OF: Yasmany Tomas ($3,400)
OF: Josh Reddick ($3,000)
Slate Overview: After a tough split slate day yesterday I am happy we have a big time Friday slate to play on and I think it is a fantastic GPP slate. I have said it many times, in tournaments – offense is what is going to get you the big time pay days and today I think is a perfect spot to load up on batters and take some GPP fliers on low-cost arms that will be in single digit ownership!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!