Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early AND Main slates which kick off at 1:05PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s winning GPP scores continued well above the season average as it took 320 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 31 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 250.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 31 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 250.5 points.
Friday’s Picks and Pivots lines went with the cheap pitcher/hitter heavy line-up with from a pure roster build was the right way to go as the chalk Max Scherzer got roughed up! Our pick of Charlie Morton struck out 12 batters and dropped 51 FanDuel points at less than 5% ownership which was a huge start on the field. Ultimately though the offense we stacked (Arizona/Detroit/Houston) was no match for the 25 run slugfest in the Bronx as the Yankees and Orioles went absolutely bonkers on offense!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks – Early
Mike Leake ($8,600) The Early Slate pitching options are loaded with a variety of high strikeout arms with significant volatility as guys like Michael Pineda and Francisco Liriano take the mound or we can pay up for the likely chalk in Stephen Strasburg against the Mets.
The one name that may get lost in the shuffle at the top end is Mike Leake who is averaging 41 FD points per game this season which is the second most of any pitcher on the Early Slate and only 2 points less than Stephen Strasburg who costs a full $2k more on FanDuel!
Leake is not a guy with a high strikeout rate so he will likely be ignored in GPP play but he has at least 6 strikeouts in three of his four starts, goes deep into games (6+ innings in every start) and has racked up a Quality Start in every single outing.
Today, Leake gets a home start against the Reds and comes into this game as one of the largest favorites on the board (-171). What really stands out to me with Leake in the early season is that he is massively limiting hard contact (18%) which is well below his career mark of 30% and he has been pitching to a near 60% ground ball rate!
On this Early Slate you definitely have “sexier names” you can chase that come with substantially more risk but for my money I think you can lock in a guy like Leake who has 40 or more FanDuel points in three of his four starts and provides you a much safer foundation to build on.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Yankees and Orioles Bats in Yankee Stadium: After erupting last night for 25 runs, these two teams take the field this afternoon in the Bronx with 80 degree temperatures and the wind blowing straight out which makes this an ideal hitting environment!
Let’s start first with the Yankees who get to tee off against Ubaldo Jimenez and it is no surprise they have the highest projected run total of any team on the Early Slate! Jimenez has a strikeout rate that is equal to his walk rate and add in the fact he is giving up 33% hard contact and 1.83 HR/9 and this screams STACK THE YANKEES!
Aaron Judge ($3,600) is simply a monster who crushes any mistake a pitcher makes and is red-hot with 4 home runs over his last five games. I am looking to build a middle-bottom of the order stack with Judge as the center piece so we can stack guys like Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,300), Starlin Castro ($3,200) and Didi Gregorious ($2,900) who is back from the DL!
On the other side of this game we have the ultimate boom or bust match-up as Michael Pineda is capable of dominating a line-up due to his high strikeout upside but also surrenders a high hard contact rate and prone to the home run ball!
The Orioles are a line-up with massive power throughout and the Oriles hitters here are very familiar with Pineda with some great BvP off him. Chris Davis ($3,400) and Adam Jones ($3,400) are 17 for 53 combined (.320 average) with 4 home runs off Pineda in their careers and can be easily stacked with an under-priced Manny Machado ($3,300) and Wellington Castillo ($3,100) for a high upside offensive stack!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Mike Leake ($8,600)
C: Wellington Castillo ($3,100)
1B: Chris Davis ($3,400)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3,200)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,300)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($2,900)
OF: Aaron Judge ($3,600)
OF: Adam Jones ($3,400)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,300)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate games all sit within the same range with 8-8.5 game totals so the metrics would say there is no game that jumps off the page from what Vegas expects. We saw last night that with the weather warming up, balls are starting to fly out of the ballpark and with 80-90 degree temps expected in NY/Washington I think those make for the best hitting environments to attack.
At pitcher I expect in GPP’s that Strasburg, Pineda and Liriano will be the most popular options due to their perceived strikeout ability but I am going to lock in Mike Leake here who feels like a safe bet for 40 FD points which should keep pace with the other arms on this slate with a fraction of the risk!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks – Main Slate
Yu Darvish ($10,300) On the Main Slate, the starting pitching options are VERY underwhelming as any time you have a an eight game slate and find Dan Straily and Matt Cain as the 3rd/4th highest priced pitcher you know things are going to be interesting!
Thankfully the Rangers ace, Yu Darvish is on the hill and we can simply lock him in tonight and move on. Will he be popular? Sure but scroll through the other options and let me know where else you feel comfortable going tonight.
Darvish has the highest strikeout rate (30%) of any pitcher on this slate and takes on an Angels team he dominated earlier this season. In that game Darvish went 7 innings, striking out 10 Angels batters and dropped 61 FanDuel points!
Darvish has two 50+ FanDuel point outings in his last three starts and is one of the largest home favorites on the board tonight. The upside here is simply unmatched by any other pitcher on this slate so I think we simply lock him in tonight and look to differentiate elsewhere!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Arizona RHB at home versus LHP Tyler Anderson: Sure the D-Backs let us down last night but you need to have a short memory in DFS and with the Arizona bats at home facing a left-handed pitcher in Tyler Anderson, I am simply going right back to the well!
Anderson has a 7.11 ERA and is giving up a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters so it is no surprise that Arizona has the highest team total on the slate. I expected the Arizona bats to be super chalk last night but surprisingly the big bats were only 12-15% owned in GPP play and after a dud last night it is possible we see gamers jump off them in this spot.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600), Yasmany Tomas ($3,600) and A.J. Pollock ($4,000) are all elite plays in this match-up and you can look to some value plays like Nick Ahmed ($2,200) for much-needed salary relief to round out an Arizona stack.
Oakland versus Joe Musgrove: If we are paying up for Yu Darvish AND the Arizona bats tonight we are going to need value plays and the Oakland Athletics are the key to unlocking this combination!
Oakland gets to face off with Joe Musgrove in Houston tonight in a favorable match-up against a pitcher with a 6 ERA this season. The Athletics line-up is littered with great salary savings options in prime lineup positions like Stephen Vogt ($2,400) and Jed Lowrie ($2,300) who should be hitting at the top or the order tonight and we can pair them with the home run bat of Khris Davis ($3,600) who showed has GPP winning upside each and every time he steps on the field – especially in a hitting environment like Houston!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Yu Darvish ($10,300)
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C: Stephen Vogt ($2,400)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600)
2B: Jed Lowrie ($2,300)
3B: Connor Gillaspie ($2,000)
SS; Nick Ahmed ($2,200)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($4,000)
OF: Yasmany Tomas ($3,600)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,600)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate to me is very simple – pay up for Yu Darvish and stack Arizona hitters. From there we will need to mix and match value and I think Oakland is the best way to accomplish this. We will need to keep an eye out on lineups to find some sneaky value elsewhere to make this line-up build work but we can capture massive hitting upside with the clear top arm on this slate if all falls perfectly!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!