FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – May 1

Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kick off at 7:05PM EST! 

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Sunday’s winning GPP scores continued well above the season average as it took 329 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 33 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 253.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.

Over the first 33 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 253.7 points.

Sunday’s Picks and Pivots did not have Anthony Rendon and frankly that is where the analysis could/should end. If you were lucky enough to have been part of the 1% who rostered Rendon on Sunday then you were rewarded with a record-breaking DFS day as the Nationals 3B dropped 99 FANDUEL POINTS! Still hard to believe that one player in baseball could put up those kinds of DFS numbers and if you had him (or any other Nationals combination frankly) you were likely counting your money before Sunday dinner!

Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks

Let’s start with the obvious here – Clayton Kershaw ($12,600) is pitching today at home against a Giants lineup he has dominated in his career and is the clear-cut cash game pitcher on a one arm site like FanDuel. We can go through any countless number of statistics but we all know Kershaw is a beast and you did not come here to have me sell you on him for GPP’s – what you want to know is can we afford to fade him?

I think the answer is yes and that is due to Luis Severino ($8,500) who takes the mound at home against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Simply put the numbers of Kershaw and Severino side by side this season for a second:

• Kershaw: Averaging 47.2 FanDuel points per game with 49 or more FD points in four of his five starts
• Severino: Averaging 44.3 FanDuel points per game with 49 or more FD points in three of his four starts
• Kershaw: Averaging 7.8 strikeouts per game with a high game score of 56 FanDuel points
• Severino: Averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game with a high game score of 59 FanDuel points.

So for $4,000 less in salary, I can roster a player JUST ON THE NUMBERS who has surprisingly been every bit as dominant as Kershaw in the early season small sample size and has shown his ability to match the kind of 50+ point upside we want when rostering Kershaw.

Now I am not saying Severino is as good as the perennial Cy Young candidate but there is game theory at play here – Kershaw even in GPP’s will be 20-25% owned and Severino will be a fraction of that!

Think of it this way, even if Kershaw goes out tonight and hits his high water mark(56 points) and Severino drops 49 FD points (which he has hit in each of his last two games) you are essentially keeping pace with the field while having a completely different offensive roster build due to the salary savings you get with Severino!

The match-up with the Blue Jays is one we can continue to exploit as they rank top 10 in K rate against right-handed pitched and are bottom 4 in team ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The Blue Jays have struggled this season against pitchers who feature a slider and Severino has a NASTY one that is his second most used pitch and is generating an elite 20% swinging strike rate.

On this slate I would not fault you for rostering Kershaw but in tournaments I am going to be 100% in on Severino tonight who I believe has the demonstrated ability to put up massive DFS scores and could match a guy like Kershaw for a fraction of the cost!

If you are looking for more Starting Pitcher options, check out Matt Rogers Daily Fantasy Pitching Breakdown to help you get an edge on the rest of the DFS field!

FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks

Chicago Cubs versus RHP Vince Velasquez: For those of you familiar with Vince Velasquez you know he is prone to wildness and struggles with the home run ball against left-handed bats. In fact, this season, the Phillies hurler has a 17% walk rate, a 34% hard contact rate and is giving up 3 HR/9 to left-handed batters.

You know who has a few good left-handed hitters? The Chicago Cubs.

Now I am not a weather man so I will leave this to the experts but the initial forecast for game time is showing 18-20 mph winds blowing straight out at Wrigley and if that pattern holds, watch out!

If you are fading Kershaw tonight them you will have no issue building a stack here and can start with Anthony Rizzo ($4,700), Kyle Schwarber ($3,300) and Ben Zobrist ($3,100).

In the same game and park conditions, do not overlook the Phillies bats who get an exploitable match-up with Brett Anderson who throughout his career has surrendered a high hard hit rate and elevated home run rate to right-handed batters.

I expect the Phillies bats will be largely overlooked tonight but assuming the wind patterns hold, I love the idea of a mini-stack with power bats like Maikel Franco ($3,400) and Cameron Rupp ($2,300) who have the ability to be home run difference makers at low ownership!

Houston Astros versus Andrew Cashner: Over the last two seasons, Cashner has given up a 35%+ hard hit rate to left-handed bats while surrendering just under 1.6 HR/9 and tonight will face an Astros team with a ton of great one-off left-handed bats including Brian McCann ($3,000), Josh Reddick ($3,000) and Carlos Beltran ($2,800). 

Although we do not yet have a team total for Wrigley due to the wind, the Astros currently have the highest projected team total on this slate! Cashner this season has been a mess, sporting a 20% walk rate versus an 11% strikeout rate and I think a full Astros stack is in play today as a pivot off Wrigley or in addition to a Cubs stack!

Carlos Correa ($3,500) and George Springer ($3,300) remain very fairly priced relative to their upside and can be mixed and matched with the left-handed hitters from the Astros for a full on stack against Cashner!

FanDuel MLB: Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview:

P: Luis Severino ($8,500) 

More from FanSided

• Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
• Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
• MLB Rumors: Favorite to trade for Justin Verlander emerges and it’s not the Astros
• NY Mets should disband franchise if nightmare Justin Verlander report becomes reality

C: Cameron Rupp ($2,300)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,700)

2B: Ben Zobrist ($3,100)

3B: Maikel Franco ($3,400)

SS: Carlos Correa ($3,500)

OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,300)

OF: George Springer ($3,300)

OF: Carlos Beltran ($2,800)

Slate Overview: Say it with me – Fade Kershaw! I am going to fade the clear chalk tonight and pivot down to Luis Severino as my SP which will allow me to stack up the big bats in Chicago and Houston. Keep an eye on the wind at Wrigley as we could be in for a high scoring affair if the wind remains gusting out to CF!

Next: FanDuel MLB Pitching Breakdown

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!