The Curious Cabrera’s: Analysing Three of Baseball’s Oldest Hitters

Miguel Cabrera, Melky Cabrera, and Asdrubal Cabrera have all played a part in our fantasy baseball teams at one point. What can we make of baseball’s three golden oldies?

There are few guarantees in fantasy baseball.

Not so long ago, the name ‘Cabrera’ used to be one of them. In these early days of 2017, we’re still talking about that surname – one that has become one of the most productive and sought after in the history of this difficult little game.

Miguel Cabrera, Melky Cabrera, and Asdrubal Cabrera. One of those things is not like the other, but while Miggy still takes his throne as the undisputed fantasy baseball MVP, his non-related, last name sharing counterparts are still worth talking about.

There’s been a lot of questions lately relating to all three Cabrera’s. That’s what has prompted me to write this article, and take a deeper look into not only the stats but also delve into their overall relevance as we head into May.

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The great part about this, is all three players are towards the back end of their careers. Miggy is 34 years-old, Melky is 32, and Asdrubal is 31. Miggy will no doubt wind up the most productive of the three this season, but there still seems to be some juice left squeezing out of the rest of the orange.

Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera’s 10-Day DL stint ends on Tuesday, as he’s set to return to the Tigers’ lineup following a groin injury. It was scary stuff for owners, and if you look closely, he’s still available in a handful of leagues after a bunch of people mass panic-dropped him two weeks ago.

Injury aside, April was an uncharacteristic one from Miggy. In 85 plate appearances, he put up a crooked 21.5% strikeout rate, the highest in the month of April during his 14-year career. In that process he managed only 9 RBI’s and an .834 OPS, leaving doubters with plenty to ponder.

Miggy’s swing has always been something to admire, and April has historically been one of his most productive months. What’s that? Players sometimes have slow starts? Well of course. But guess what, ships can’t sail when there’s a hole on board.

If you’ve watched enough of Miggy’s 56 at-bats thus far, you should have realized exactly that, Miggy’s swing has a hole. His once flawless bat isn’t making the same contact we’re used to In fact, during the second week of April, he had nearly as many whiffs (41.13%) as he had during all of last season.

The problem with Miggy’s swing may be mechanical, but it’s as much mental as it is physical. He isn’t seeing the ball as well, and it shows in the fact that he’s swinging at just over 16% more pitches down low and on the inside part of the plate than he was during 2016.

We’ve seen similar slumps before like this from Miggy, but these numbers certainly do stand out. Certain pitches, in particular, are causing him problems – he’s swung at more fastballs (56%) than he has since 2009, and all of this has happened whilst the Tigers offense remains in the top half of the league offensively.

Given his age, these kind of struggles are going to happen for any slugger eventually, but since it’s Miggy, this is almost hard to watch. So where do we go from here?

Miggy is walking, 13.8% of the time to be exact, so not all plate discipline is lost. He’s also maintaining a 92.97mph average exit velocity, so of course, his power is still there. Chalk this up to a slump or blame the injury, Miggy is one of the most resilient in the game. We are comparing April’s small sample size to an entire season, and on the back of another MVP type year, it’s hard to see these struggles continuing.

Melky Cabrera

Melky’s Cabrera’s 12-year career keeps on truckin’, and it hasn’t come to a standstill just yet in fantasy either. On the flip side, he’s been dropped in -7.5% of leagues this week, and like Miggy has an injury to go along with his underwhelming April.

Quietly, Melky has actually produced some pretty okay numbers recently. He had the second-most productive year of his career last season, batting .296/.345/.455 with 14 HR’s and 86 RBI’s, but reaping the benefits from a 32-year old outfielder continues to prove challenging for owners.

Melky has played in 20 games so far this season and has missed the odd day or two with both a wrist injury and some time on paternity leave. The wrist injury may be more of a hindrance than Melky has let on, but as his projections show, he’s probably due for an outburst any day now.

So far this season, I’ve seen a lot of people confused about what to do with Melky. He’s readily available in many leagues, but no one knows when he is going to heat up, and if he’s worth holding on to until that day arrives. Statistically, July is his most productive career month – he’s hit a career high 24 HR’s there, but in the meantime, there’s a lot that needs to happen between now and then.

The biggest concern of Melky’s early 2017 season is the fact that he’s simply not swinging at enough pitches. So far through April he’s swung at a career low 42% of all pitches he’s faced, and the ones that he actually is swinging at produce an entirely different story.

Melky is swinging at more pitches high and middle over the plate than ever and is swinging at fewer pitches dead center in the strike zone. To be exact, he’s swung at only 53% of pitches over the middle of the plate, and while that number may still seem high, keep in mind he swung at 70% of those same pitches last season.

Again, the wrist injury can’t be overlooked here, and there are good signs to go along with Melky. His contact rate is in the upper 85% region, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone so far. It’s definitely too early to add Melky and play the waiting game, but he could be worth placing on your watch list just in time for July.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Batting second in the Mets’ lineup has turned out better than Sandy Alderson could have ever expected. Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting .247 to start the season. Although he’s missed the odd day here and there, he looks likely to hold his spot in the Mets’ starting lineup this season.

Fantasy wise, he hasn’t been great. Owners tend to agree after having dropped him in 9.2% of leagues, but if you’re after a short-term replacement at SS, he really isn’t all that bad if you take the time to look into his numbers.

Out of all the stats that I could argue, the one that’s most important is this: his .636 AVG with runners in scoring position ranks second in the league. In those 11 at-bats, Asdrubal has scored 8 RBI’s and 9 runs, and thankfully his 47.4% ground ball rating has helped him to pull the ball into all those wide open gaps.

Asdrubal probably won’t hand you the 23 HR’s he did a season ago, but he is capable of 50 RBI’s this season. He’s a great bench option at SS, and his .314 OBP might present some potential stolen base opportunities further down the track.

Next: Noah Syndergaard injury update

One powerful surname, and nearly two decades of fantasy relevance. If we’re still talking about the Cabrera’s in a years time, it certainly won’t be a bad thing.