We’re one month into the 2017 season, and it’s safe to say that some of the most coveted starting pitchers in the league have been disappointing their fantasy owners.
It’s still early in the season, but by now you’ve had a good look at who has impressed and who has underperformed. As far as ERA goes, there’s a surprising lack of big-name starting pitchers in the top 10.
The top three starters by ERA thus far are Ervin Santana (0.77), Chris Sale (1.19) and Dallas Keuchel (1.21). Nothing too unusual there. But the next three? Mike Leake (1.35), James Paxton (1.35) and Jason Vargas (1.42). The rest of the top 10 isn’t exactly filled with ace pitchers, either.
This isn’t abnormal for early May, but it’s understandable if you’re beginning to worry about some of the premier pitchers in the league. Some of these struggling pitchers are more concerning than others, but none of them should be given up on yet.
This is one of the best times of the season to buy low on big-name guys who are having slow starts. By the same token, you might also find this an opportune time to find hot starters at a bargain price. It could even be as simple as a waiver addition. Jason Vargas is available in 14.5 percent of ESPN leagues and Mike Leake is available in 18.3 percent of ESPN leagues. Get them while they’re hot.
Here are the five most disappointing starting pitchers after the first month of the season:
#5. Felix Hernandez
The six-time all-star and 2010 American League Cy Young award winner had a pretty lackluster April. Felix Hernandez has looked like a shell of his former self so far this season, with the exception of one start. And after suffering a shoulder injury late in April, Hernandez is expected to be out until mid-to-late May.
The 31-year-old veteran pitcher is 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA over 26 2/3 innings pitched. He just hasn’t looked comfortable on the mound this season. The right-hander currently has a 1.57 WHIP and a 4.84 FIP. His biggest issue has been the long ball. Hernandez’s home runs per nine innings pitched ratio is currently 2.0. His home run to fly ball ratio is at 27.3 percent, up from 14.5 percent in 2016. You can expect that number to go down when he comes back healthy, but it’s still a cause for concern.
The one encouraging thing to take away from Hernandez’s performances before landing on the DL is the lack of walks. He’s only walked three batters on the season. But unfortunately, hitters are squaring up on him. He’s currently giving up 13.2 hits per nine innings pitched. His BABIP is a lofty .388, which is another stat you can expect to see improve if he comes back healthy.
The Seattle Mariners are encouraged by Hernandez’s rehab progress, but when he comes back, it might be time to temper expectations. The reality is setting in that Hernandez may no longer be the dominant ace he once was. Last season saw the veteran pitcher regress, and he looks to be on pace to regress this season as well. He should still be a good, serviceable starter in all leagues, but he’s not close to being a number one guy anymore.
#4. Jake Arrieta
Remember that incredible run Jake Arrieta had after the all-star break in 2015? That feels like it was a decade ago now. It’s been a rough start to the season for the 31-year-old right-hander. Really it’s been a rough start for the Chicago Cubs’ rotation as a whole.
Arrieta is 3-1 with a 4.66 ERA in 29.0 innings pitched over five starts. The wins are nice, but you can attribute that to the run support Arrieta’s received (the Cubs’ offense is averaging 6.4 runs per game when Arrieta starts). Command has been a big problem for him, just as it was in 2016. After posting a 3.5 BB/9 in 2016, Arrieta currently boasts a 2.5 BB/9 to start the 2017 season. Walks have started becoming a consistent issue for him.
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And when he’s not missing the zone, he’s missing right over the heart of the plate. Arrieta has already given up six home runs on the year. A drop in velocity could be part of his struggles to keep the ball in the park. According to Fangraphs, Arrieta’s average fastball velocity this season is 91.6 mph, down from 93.6 mph in 2016 and 94.4 mph in 2015.
Unfortunately, looking at each of Arrieta’s starts individually does not inspire much confidence, as each one has been progressively worse than the last. In his last start, he gave up five earned runs over 4 1/3 innings pitched, giving up 10 hits in the process.
Like Hernandez, Arrieta’s 21.4 percent home run to flyball ratio is probably unsustainable, so the home runs should start to drop. His hard hit percentage is at 32.5 percent right now, though; that’ll need to come down for Arrieta to bounce back.
Arrieta had some of the same struggles last season that he’s having right now, but he still managed to finish with a great final line in 2016. Also take into account that this is a contract year for Arrieta. There are a lot of dollars on the line, so you know he’s going to do everything he can to smooth things out. You should expect him to be a valuable starting pitching asset moving forward.
#3. Carlos Martinez
Carlos Martinez has become the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals’ staff, but the hard-throwing right-hander hasn’t quite lived up to that role in his first month of 2017.
Martinez is 0-3 with a 4.71 ERA over the course of five starts and 28 2/3 innings pitched. With 39 strikeouts already, Martinez is missing a lot of bats. Unfortunately, he’s also missing the strike zone an awful lot. He’s walked 14 batters on the season, giving him a 4.4 BB/9 ratio and a 1.46 WHIP.
Personally, I blame it on that crazy looking silver hair, which according to the St. Louis Dispatch, Martinez has decided to change. Maybe this is the beginning of a turnaround for Martinez?
If he can keep the walks in check going forward, there’s a lot to like from this guy. With an average fastball velocity of 96.1 mph, Martinez will put up big strikeout numbers. The key for Martinez will be his control while men are on base. Players have an OBP of .382 when facing Martinez with men on base.
Martinez should be one of the few bright spots on a team that has been seemingly mediocre in most categories. Adam Wainwright is no longer the most dependable pitcher in the Cardinals’ rotation. Martinez should be that guy at this point. If the Cardinals want to be playoff contenders this season, they’ll need Martinez to start pitching like an ace again. If the last two years are any indication, he should get back on track. Look for him to pick up the pace.
#2. Johnny Cueto
What’s going on with Johnny Cueto? What’s going on with the Giants? Without Madison Bumgarner and a slew of other players, the Giants find themselves in last place in the NL West, and Johnny Cueto isn’t helping any.
Cueto has pitched to the tune of a 4.86 ERA over 37.0 innings pitched, going 4-1 in the process. With a 4.46 FIP, Cueto has struggled on the mound this season.
The cause for all of this? Look no further than a decrease in velocity. Cueto’s average fastball velocity, according to Fangraphs, is 91.0 mph, compared to 92.0 mph in 2016. This has resulted in an increase in hard hit percentage against Cueto. At 27.2 percent last season, Cueto’s hard hit percentage is currently at a whopping 36.4 percent to start the season. This should be a big concern for Cueto owners.
Starts outside of AT&T Park have been rough for Cueto. He’s boasting a 5.63 ERA in four road starts, where opponents are slugging .447 against the right-hander.
You might be inclined to just call this a rough start, but we could be witnessing the beginning of a regression from Cueto. It may be too early yet to make that judgment, but at age 31 and having pitched 1,677 innings, we can’t rule out that possibility.
It’s reasonable to think Cueto will start putting up better numbers, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to the elite level he was at last year. Try and temper your all-star expectations from him moving forward.
#1. Jose Quintana
One of the biggest disappointments so far has been White Sox ace Jose Quintana. A popular trade candidate before the 2017 season, interested teams found the price-tag for Quintana too high. And for good reason. For years, the presence of Chris Sale overshadowed the fact that Jose Quintana has been one of the most effective starting pitchers in baseball.
Having pitched at least 200 innings every year since 2013, Quintana has a career ERA of 3.46. But Quintana isn’t off to such a good start this season. In 29 1/3 innings pitched, he’s gone 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA and a 4.70 FIP.
So what’s the issue?
Just like some others on this list, walks are impeding Quintana’s productivity. Sporting a 4.3 BB/9 ratio, Quintana has already walked 14 batters, contributing to his 1.47 WHIP.
His splits don’t really answer any questions, either, as the 28-year-old lefty actually has a higher BAA against left-handed batters (.276) than he does right-handed batters (2.47).
Other than the walks, there’s really no obvious answer as to why Quintana has struggled to this point. It could be that he’s feeling additional pressure as the team’s ace with Chris Sale gone. It could be that he’s thinking about the possibility that he’ll be traded. History has shown that that can negatively affect a pitcher’s psyche.
Whatever the case may be, Quintana will need to improve if the White Sox hope to trade him at a steep price. Though he’s had the worst start of everyone on this list, he may have the easiest path to a comeback. Don’t give up on Jose Quintana just yet. He’s still capable of being a number one or two starter in your lineup.
Wrapping it up
You might be frustrated with these guys, but they could all come back strong. Some deserve more trade consideration than others, but there’s a case to be made for hanging on to all of them for a little while longer.
If you’re the impatient type, I’d say sell on Hernandez and Cueto. Those two, especially Hernandez, seem like the riskiest of the bunch. But again, it’s only May. All of these guys turn things around. There really isn’t a wrong move with these two. Holding onto them would be smart, and so would getting what you can for them.
Arrieta is 31 years old, but he has thrown significantly fewer innings than most other starters around his age. He was a bit of a late bloomer, so he should still have plenty of good mileage left on his arm.
As for Martinez and Quintana, I’d stay patient unless you’re offered an unbelievably good package for them. Those two are the youngest of the lot and could have the highest ceiling of everyone on the list. They have the best chance of making significant improvements and making them quickly. As for the other three, you could be in for a slightly longer wait.
Slow starts from big-name players are always frustrating, but the last thing you want is to let them go too early, only to see them start dominating for another team in your league.