Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kick off at 12:35 and 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores were right at our season average as it took 256.7 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 36 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 36 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.4 points.
Wednesday’s Picks and Pivots line-up built around Charlie Morton and the Mariners stack was a big hit as the line put up 189.9 FanDuel points and put is well over the cash line in all contests! Morton just continues to be a DFS stud as he struck out 8 batters and put up 49 FD points at only 7% ownership!
The Mariners stack was all under 5% owned and it delivered across the board as we got home runs from Robinson Cano and Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz and Ben Game each put up double-digit points! The last minute swap at catcher to Rene Rivera paid big dividends as well as he put up 25.9 FD points at only 2% ownership in GPP’s!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (Early)
Looking over the Thursday split slate there are a few things that jump out to me – first, we have late swap back so why does FanDuel feel the need to keep splitting these slates? Second, there are a ton of dicey looking weather situations which could turn these small slates into even smaller ones which will limit the overall options and appeal of playing GPP’s.
That being said, no matter how I break down this slate I just keep coming back to Max Scherzer ($11,400) as the only arm I have any real interest in on this slate. Max is a massive -250 favorite in this match-up against Arizona and will face off against recently re-called Braden Shipley in one of the bigger mismatches we will see all year.
Scherzer comes into this game with a 30.3% K rate which is good enough for the 6th highest mark in all of baseball and has put up 45 or more FD points in four of his five starts this season. Arizona strikes out at a 24% clip against RHP this season which is the 6th highest mark in MLB which aligns perfectly with Scherzer and the potential for a double-digit strikeout outing.
In his career against these Diamondback hitters, Scherzer has a 40% K rate in 98 at bats and has held A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt to an 0-15 mark with 8 punch outs!
Whenever we are faced with the decision of fading an ace we need to ask ourselves – is there something about this match-up we do not like AND is there a viable alternative on the slate? In this instance I see no reason to move away from Scherzer as the rest of the pitching options are frankly underwhelming and I believe there are high upside offensive spots we can target that work in perfectly around Max!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (Early)
Houston Astros versus RHP A.J. Griffin: Griffin is making is return to the mound after an early season DL stint and will have to toe the rubber against one of the more dangerous lineups in baseball.
Griffin has given up 7 ER in only 15 IP this season with an absurd 48.7% hard contact rate and for a career fly ball pitcher that could spell trouble against Houston! Griffin in his career has almost identical HR and hard contact rates to each side of the plate so a full on stack here is in play and the Astros bats are priced very reasonably relative to their upside which makes fitting them on with Scherzer my preferred route.
Carlos Correa ($3,500), George Springer ($3,500) and Josh Reddick ($2,700) make for a great top of the order stack and if Marwin Gonzalez ($2,800) remains in the line-up we should find a way to fit in a playerwho has 4 home runs in his last three games!
Texas Rangers versus RHP Joe Musgrove: The other side of this game is equally as enticing as the Rangers take on Joe Musgrove who has given up 15 ER in 27 innings this season with 5 home runs! Musgrove has a small career sample size but similar to Griffin is exploitable from both sides of the plate and the Rangers bats comes into this game priced perfectly for this roster build.
Mike Napoli ($2,800) and Rougned Odor ($2,900) are both sitting below $3k on FanDuel and can be paired with a high dollar OF like Carlos Gomez ($3,400) if you are looking for a larger stack in this spot.
Oakland A’s versus RHP Kyle Gibson: The Oakland – Minnesota game should be a sneaky one for offense on this slate and the Oakland side of this game gives us some great bargain plays in an elite match-up. Gibson has a below average 12% K rate and a 9% walk rate while giving up 35.4% hard contact as a primary fly ball hurler.
Stephen Vogt ($2,300) is always in play versus a RHP for those looking to punt catcher and Trevor Plouffe ($2,500) has been hitting in the #2 spot in the order which would put him in a prime position as a one-off salary saver today!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview (Early):
P: Max Scherzer ($11,400)
C: Stephen Vogt ($2,300)
1B: Mike Napoli ($2,800)
2B: Rougned Odor ($2,900)
3B: Trevor Plouffe ($2,500)
SS: Carlos Correa ($3,500)
OF: Josh Reddick ($2,700)
OF: George Springer ($3,500)
OF: Carlos Gomez ($3,400)
Slate Overview: The biggest thing to watch on this slate is the weather as it could severely limit the available options we have when building our roster. Without any other arms that jump off the page I think this is a slate where you pay up for the best arm available and let others try make the mistake of fading him. The Texas-Houston game is a great spot for offense and the bats are reasonable enough where we can essentially build a game stack here. Oakland-Minnesota is another sneaky spot to target and we can utilize value from that game to make our rosters work today!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (Main)
Ariel Miranda ($7,300) Let’s be clear, this pick is less of an endorsement for Miranda and more a statement of how tremendously stank this pitching slate is. Yes, I just called a pitching slate tremendously stank and I feel like that is an understatement.
The reality on the Main Slate is there is essentially no opportunity cost at starting pitcher as the likely point variance between these options will be so minimal that you are really just looking for a pitcher who will get you a decent outing and hoping you pick the right bats to take you across the cash line!
There are a few simple metrics that point towards Miranda here – his opponent, the Angels, have the third lowest implied run total on the Main Slate and he comes into this game as a minor -125 favorite. Miranda comes into this game with two 40 point FanDuel outings over his last three starts and has struck out 15 batters in 15 innings of work over that time.
Although it has been a small sample size, Miranda has markedly better numbers at home over his career pitching to a 3.08 ERA which is a full two runs lower than his ERA on the road and he sees his K rate spike from 16% to 23%!
Keep in mind we have big time weather concerns in St. Louis and Atlanta which may limit our pitching options even further on this slate so it will be important to be flexible as news breaks.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (Main)
Baltimore Orioles versus RHP Kyle Kendrick: The Baltimore/Boston game has the clear highest total on the board with a 10 run projected Vegas run total and I expect the Red Sox bats will be the highest owned stack on this slate as they face Tyler Wilson who will be pressed into duty as a result of Ubaldo Jimenez having to pitch for Baltimore last night!
Rather than opt for the chalk, I will pivot to the other side of this game with the Baltimore Orioles who will face a guy making his first start in the majors since 2015! The Orioles have the third highest team total on this slate and should be able to jump all over Kendrick in this one as I expect some fired up Orioles on the heels of some crazy events in this series the past 48 hours!
Chris Davis ($3,300) is priced way too low for his upside in a spot like this and you can build a complete top of the order stack with Manny Machado ($3,800), Adamn Jones ($3,200) and Seth Smith ($2,800) with relative ease!
Seattle Mariners versus RHP Alex Meyer: The Mariners were my top stack last night and were under 5% owned across GPP’s and I would expect they will get overlooked again tonight as everyone goes towards the Boston/Baltimore bats!
The Mariners will face off with a pitcher who has a 6.16 ERA in the minor leagues this season, a career ERA over 6.5 in the majors with a mid-teens walk rate and a 34% hard contact rate so yeah, I want to attack him.
The top of the order for the Mariners is hitting the baseball exceptionally well and I will look to roll out Robinson Cano ($4,100) and Nelson Cruz ($4,500) but do not overlook lead-off man Jean Segura ($3,700) who has a home run and 2 steals already in this series and will likely be over-looked by the masses who lock in Xander Boaegarts!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview: (Main)
P: Ariel Miranda ($7,300)
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C: Rene Rivera ($2,200)
1B: Chris Davis ($3,300)
2B: Robinson Cano ($4,100)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,800)
SS: Jean Segura ($3,700)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,500)
OF; Adam Jones ($3,200)
OF: Seth Smith ($2,800)
Slate Overview: Not only are today’s slate tough to navigate but we have a ton of weather concerns to monitor which could make small slates even smaller which is bad news for GPP’s! Today is a day I think you should play light and be mindful that if we have rain-outs in other spots the ownership will become so concentrated that it will make separating yourself in a GPP nearly impossible!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest lineup news and roster updates!